Global coffee shortage predicted as Brazil struggles with drought
Source: New Orleans Times-Picayune
With a severe drought in the coffee-producing powerhouse of Brazil, analysts are warning about an impending global coffee shortage, according to a recent report in The Washington Post.
The Associated Press reported that more than 140 cities in Brazil, which produces about a third of the world's coffee, are rationing water. Crops from corn to coffee to sugar are hurting. The dry conditions mean growers in Brazil will harvest 53 million bags of coffee this year, down from the potential of 56 million to 58 million bags, according to a Bloomberg report today.
As of now, retail prices are stable because roasters keep a few months supply of beans in stock, according to the Post. But consumers could see the price of a cup of joe at their local coffee shop go up if the Arabica prices continue to climb.
Bloomberg Businessweek noted that after 2 1/2 years of declines, coffee futures are rising, up 43 percent since the end of January. According to Reuters, Arabica coffee posted its biggest weekly surge in prices in more than a decade last week.
Read more: http://www.nola.com/business/index.ssf/2014/02/global_coffee_shortage_predict.html#incart_river_default
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Ritholtz - 
Don’t panic. But there’s a global coffee shortage.
By Jia Lynn Yang
February 21 at 9:57 am
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You can see the dramatic rise in the price of coffee due for delivery in March below. On Wednesday, the price per pound reached the highest point in about 14 months at $1.72.
From the comment section:
Alex Cataldo
7:58 AM PST
This is all speculative garbage.
Proof again the rich are running the uncapped unregulated hedge market.
I've talked with farms and brokers and they themselves have said at worst case it would be a 3% loss on the crop because of the lack of rain.
You can see the spike in the chart, its completely unnatural.
This is all fear mongering speculator's forcing the damn market up and in my opinion, they belong in prison for false inflation of the market like this.
Don't believe even one of these articles out there claiming the drought is as bad as they're saying.
The last time there was a frost that killed 15% of the crop and the market didn't jump like this. We were also in a deficit in regards to supply.
Alex Cataldo
8:13 AM PST
Oh, i forgot to add this.
The real reason this is being done is because Vietnam has a record coffee crop.
What coffee is it? Vietnam is know as the worlds largest Robusta Coffee Producer.
They refuse to sell it on the market because the Robusta Market is too low and they know that if they did sell it would crash the Robusta Market even further.
So how do you fix this? Easy, Inflate the Arabica Market falsely so that roasters are forced to switch to Robusta yet again.
Can you guess what happens then? Ding Ding, Robusta market jumps so now Vietnam can dump their nasty product on the market at an inflated price.
Watch the next couple months, Robust market will go up, Arabica market will cool off dramatically and this Smoke Screen Drought will disappear from thoughts.
Your all being duped by con artist speculators, bankers, and politicians.
