Ukraine live: Prime Minister of Ukraine says Russian military intervention would lead to war

[brooklynite]

Source: The Telegraph

Arseny Yatsenyuk, prime minister of Ukraine, says any military intervention by Russia would lead to war and end all relations with Moscow. Oleksander Turchynov, the acting president of Ukraine, has put his troops on alert.

Read more: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/10669670/Ukraine-live-Crimea-leader-appeals-to-Putin-to-help-as-Obama-warns-of-costs-to-Moscow.html

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Sleep well...

[William769]

1. Great NEWS!

Stand up to the fucking bully.

[tiny elvis]

3. god!

[tiny elvis]

4. almighty!

[lostincalifornia]

9. Sorry to disappoint you, but there really won't be a war

[William769]

10. Not disappointing me.

Theres more than one way to bring Russia to it's knees. And I believe it will happen.

[lostincalifornia]

11. It won't. This is no different than the U.S. invading Iraq for WMDs, (really oil, shhhh). Very

similar to what is happening with Russia

[William769]

12. We will just have to agree to disagree.

[lostincalifornia]

13. of course, it is just my two cents, probably not even worth that. However, oil is the

reason both Europe and Russia are so concerned about the Ukraine

[okaawhatever]

14. It's mainly gas, but Europe isn't that concerned with gas. Yes, they have pipelines that run through

Ukraine for delivery, but the issues have always been Putiin cutting it off, not Ukraine. For Russia, they rely on Ukraine being dependent on them and paying above market prices. It's how Putin practically owns them. Every attempt Ukraine has made to become more gas independent has created a backlash from Russia.
Russia won't sign the Energy Compact Treaty or whatever it's called to allow Ukraine to run gas from other countries through their pipelines. In fact, Russia buys much of the gas from Kazakhstan at a cheap price and then marks it up to sell to Ukraine. One of the reasons Putin didn't want the EU agreement. He didn't want to be cut out from being the middle man. When Ukraine struck a deal with Dutch Shell and Exxon to develop their own gas fields Putin announced that Ukraine was going to have to pay their full bill plus up-front for future gas. Crap like that.

[dipsydoodle]

29. You may find that Ukraine pays the market price more or less :

not above it. Differences between spot pricing and long term contracts mentioned here http://www.economist.com/news/business/21592639-european-efforts-reduce-russian-state-owned-companys-sway-over-gas-prices-have-been Ukraine isn't in a position to use spot pricing. Current market rate referred to here http://www.democraticunderground.com/101686641 which is more or less what Ukraine was paying rpior to the substantial price reduction.

You may also find that the gas from Kazakhstan is actually from Turkmenistan - it transits through the former. At times Kazakhstan is a net importer of gas despite their reserves.

Crap like that ? Is it unreasonable for Ukraine to be expected to actually pay promptly for the gas they use as opposed to being c. $3 billion in arrears /debt ? Its hardly surprising they may in future be required to pay for gas in advance.

If as now appears likely , despite being mugged off twice in the past , the IMF become involved with necessary funding then Ukraine will become "managed" , as is Greece , to help ensure all debt repayments.

[ashling]

18. And when, prey tell (not misspelled), has the United States declined to

intervene to protect its interests, particularly when U.S. military bases were threatened?

Russia's entire foriegn policy sice Peter the Great has been to get (and hold on to ) access to an ice free port.

[amandabeech]

20. When Ferdinand Marcos was overthrown in the Philippines,

the U.S. did nothing.

We stayed put at our bases and did not intervene.

We left peacefully a few years later.

If you don't recall, the Philippines was once our colony.

[former9thward]

49. Our interests and bases were never threatened by Marcos being overthrown.

[amandabeech]

50. Where's the evidence of any actual threat

to the Crimea bases leased by Moscow?

Did any Ukrainian soldiers shoot at them?

Did the Ukrainian Navy bombard them?

Did anyone in Kiev order the Russians out immediately?

Did anyone shut off their water or natural gas supplies which come from Ukraine over the isthmus?

Certainly, concern on the part of Moscow was warranted, but absolutely nothing more.

And concern is cause for peaceful talks, not military invention.

Not in 2014.

[pampango]

32. There is no threat to Russia's base. Their lease runs another 30 years and no one has even suggested

canceling it (and could not cancel it even if they wanted to.)

The real question is what will happen 30 years from now when the lease expires? Russia has no 'right' to a base in Ukraine any more than the US has a 'right' to a base in Germany or Okinawa no matter how much we really like having them there.

When has the US used troops from a military base to invade the country/province that is was located in? Or was the 'intervention' you refer to something other than military in nature?

[NeoConsSuck]

35. who knew...

that overthrowing a democratically elected government would have such repercussions?

[William769]

39. What democratically elected government was overthrown?

The democratically elected Parliament Impeached a tyrant President. The tyrant President flees the Country with his tail between his ass.

So once again, What democratically elected government was overthrown?

Oh never mind, your avatar says it all.

[Splinter Cell]

40. Fuckin' Amen!

[LisaL]

47. If congress here in US decided it wanted to elect someone else other than Obama, would

that be legit? After all the congress is democratically elected.

[stevenleser]

55. Unfortunately, yes. There is a Constitutional process for that, it's called impeachment. nt

[chrisa]

56. If Obama ordered the massacre of protesters on an American street, he would also be impeached.

[2banon]

2. So Ukraine has forces to match Russian forces?

[LisaL]

6. Nobody says it will be an even war.

[2banon]

8. Warships already defecting to Russia, I think the War is just about over..

I hope.



editing to add link: http://www.democraticunderground.com/10024588249

[okaawhatever]

15. Haaaaaaaa, that's funny. Even if it's true it doesn't change much. I did google it and found that

only the media sources who are paid to print stories are carrying it. That sounds a whole lot like propaganda. The allied forces will give Ukrainians another ship. Russia's are two generations old and will end up at the bottom of the drink anyway. I seriously wondered if Putin had some kind of insurance because a couple of his ships were due to be scrapped before 2015, he may have wanted to provoke an attack so he could collect the insurance and buy new ones.

[2banon]

22. I don't have stakes in the outcome.. frankly the only thing concerning me is that we stay out of it

on that front, it may appear that we might have a hand in stirring up shit, which is what we're so good at and have a really long history of doing. I don't really care about what goes on between those nations, it's all about gas reserves as per usual.

[freshwest]

53. Interesting that one ship defects. Inconsequential, though. n/t

[HatTrick]

7. Not even close.

Not even close.

[okaawhatever]

17. Sure when you combine the allied forces. We're not going to let Ukraine go down alone. Heck, even

just Poland would make a big difference. It will take a while for all the Allied forces to get into place due to the geography, but we have Air and Sea superiority. It will be ugly, but Russia can't even take on the US much less the US, UK, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Israel, Poland, Latvia, Lithuania, Denmark, and all the other allies. Even with Russia's allies Iran, N Korea and China they're not close.

[tiny elvis]

19. not saying we wouldn't get our hair mussed

but that is the price of control

[TheMightyFavog]

26. I can't believe what I'm reading.

Seriously. People cheering for a war that could get us all killed. I never thought I'd end up saying this on DU. Never.

[2banon]

37. I hear ya..

It's like du has been invaded by the Neo-Cons.. unbelievable.

[awoke_in_2003]

46. I think tiny Elvis is joking...

That was one of George C. Scott's lines in Dr Strangelove.

[pangaia]

48. Gotta protect our precious bodily fluids...

[2banon]

23. You seriously think Obama is going get into a military conflict with Russia? Seriously?

[okaawhatever]

28. I think Putin is a bully who won't be stopped until he's confronted. I think the best way to prevent

a war is to place every ship, aircraft and troop we and the allied forces have available on his doorstep. Russia's military aggression has been escalating for years. Just a couple of serious airspace violations this year:

02/07/2013 Russian fighter jets violated the air space of Japan
02/26/2013 Russian simulated strikes on a U.S. Aegis cruiser in the Pacific and ground-based radar station in Japan.
05/27/2013 Russia simulates an attack on US Air Base on Guam

03/29/2013 Russian bombers and escorts simulate a nighttime bombing run over Sweden
04/27/2013 Russian Intelligence gathering plane flies over Sweden during exercise
06/13/2013 Finnish Airspace violated by Russian Bombers and support fighter aircraft

09/20/2013 “Immense” Russian – Belarusian military exercise (possibly focused on neutralizing an ethnic unrest) in eastern Europe
11/05/2013 Russia flies over Nicaragua, Airspace Incursion, takes off from base in Venezuela
11/06/2013 Russia violates airspace of Colombia with TU 160 Bombers. Were intercepted and escorted out of airspace.

Russia has been escalating and enlarging their military for a few years now. It will only continue. Putin is enjoying his moment in the sun trying to show the world that Russia is the superpower it used to be and when he goes after Georgia and the balkans everyone needs to stand down. He's got 25k troops on the Crimea not including the units he sent in to invade. Putin's basic nature is that he's a bully, but a smart one. How many times do you have to try and reason with a bully before you realize it's not going to work? Putin doesn't have the military capacity or support internationally to pull this off. The people of Ukraine and Russia need to know that.

[2banon]

34. So, you think the U.S. should engage in a Military Showdown with the Big Bully.

Because that is somehow going to show him who the real super power boss is? And he's going to say," oh okay, I'll go away now, you win" ???

You don't think maybe the big bully might then resort to Nuclear Weapons against the U.S.?

Think this through a bit, please. I think it's safe to say at the very least Putin is a megalomaniac. Apply psychology 101 .. I think we can guess his next step if we engage in Military action against him.

That won't end well for anyone.

[okaawhatever]

36. Putin won't launch a nuke, especially over threats, he doesn't want to be the man who ruined

Russia and her reputation. If I thought for a second he would actually launch a nuke I wouldn't suggest it, but it begs the question now that so many countries have nukes, what do we do...stand by while they break international law?

[2banon]

38. "what do we do...stand by while they break international law?"

The same thing other nations do when the U.S. breaks International Law, every day of the year.

The same thing we do when other nations break International Law in other regions of the world.

[Xithras]

45. Putin is worried about his own reputation. If it comes down to using nukes vs. losing a war...

...I think it's the height of naivete to think that Russia wouldn't use them.

I doubt that Putin would engage in a full scale exchange, but a few high-altitude "warning detonations" over Europe or Ukraine? Maybe some small scale "strategic" nuclear strikes against enemy military bases? If Russia were actually losing a war, I have no doubt whatsoever that he'd set a few off just to scare the shit out of the rest of the world and get us to back off.

How many Americans or Europeans would defend Ukraine if the possibility of the vaporization of New York, or Los Angeles, or Paris, or London were made real and imminent? We prefer our wars to be of the low casualty-count variety, with no danger of death or destruction to our homelands. Putin isn't an idiot, and he knows that the fastest way to end a war with the west is to scare our populations into thinking that their children are about to die. A few well planned nuclear "warning shots" would be one hell of a way to accomplish that.

Of course, he may not even have to go nuclear to accomplish that. Russia has a conventional ICBM program with non-nuclear warheads. In an open war between the U.S. and Russia, Putin could rain missiles down on any American city without ever pulling the nuclear trigger.

[Splinter Cell]

41. I'm no hawk.

That said, we do have to stand up for what's right. War is mankind at it's absolute worst, but we can't let people walk all over the world because we're afraid.

Look at Chamberlain in Munich. Give them an inch, and they'll take a mile. Putin is a dictator thug in the same vein as Hitler. Hitler believed nobody would actually stand up to him and his aggression. For a while he was right, and it cost the world millions of lives. If we had stood up sooner, perhaps we could have prevented many of the atrocities he committed.

I'm not hoping to go to war, but I would like to see the free world stand up to Putin and let him know that there are limits, and consequences.

[2banon]

43. omg. It's the basis of the Domino Theory.

this is the revived meme for the Vietnam war. omg I never thought I'd live to see/read/hear that again in my lifetime. Lessons have not been learned.

[mazzarro]

51. Is it not the same bullying and trumped up invasion of Iraq that Bush indulged in as well? - n/t

[sarge43]

44. Now that the final combat restrictions for women have been lifted, suit up.

When your body, mind or life has been totally fucked over by combat, just don't whine about it.

It's people like you that get another people destroyed. You first.

[freshwest]

54. No shots will be fired, no matter how much the neo-cons and CTs dream about nuking Putin:

to Segami:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=4582939

Not from us, anyway. NOT gonna happen, no matter how long the End Timers have ranted about Gog and Magog. Oh, yeah, they are really getting ants in their pants about it...

[okaawhatever]

16. Once Ukrainians allies come to help they will. Russia will be outnumbered at least two to one. With

Air and Naval superiority.
Let's see, on our side there will be:

United States, Canada, United Kingdom, Australia, New Zealand, Poland, Israel, Denmark, Croatia, Latvia, Lithuania, Netherlands, Norway, Hungary and Maybe Japan, Turkey and Georgia


Russia has Iran, N Korea, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Maybe China, India, Pakistan

We've got Ukraine's back, it's Russia you need to be worried about. Most of the ethnic Russians would die in Ukraine since they're the ones on the border They will let the ethnic Russians living in East Ukraine die protecting Russia, ditto the residents of the Crimea. Have you looked at a map and what it would take for Allied forces to invade? There's going through Poland, Latvia/Lithuania or through the Black Sea. After that, the only thing in the way of a push to Moscow are the ethnic Russians in the area who would resist.

[2banon]

24. Dude, whatcha got in that pipe?

you seem to be cheerleading for WWIII . are you fucking out of your mind?

[mazzarro]

25. Will you wake up from that day dreaming of yours - sir?

With all your clamor for war, will you be in the forefront of the initial charge?

[okaawhatever]

31. You may believe that tripe, but I don't. Russia isn't there defending anyone. Russia is there to

take over. I'm smart enough to know that Putin is a pathological liar. I don't listen to his words, I look at his action.

[penultimate]

30. You know this isn't a game of Civilization 4 or Hearts of Iron, right?

Things unfolding the way you suggest would put the world on the brink of destruction. I don't think any of those countries would be willing to put themselves in a conflict with Russia over Ukraine. I think it's far more likely that Russia would end up getting dragged into a painful asymmetric war if they were to try to take over the entire country.

[newthinking]

33. don't interrupt his rage

He was about to destroy everyone in Crimea with his mouse.

[mazzarro]

52. Bwahahahahahahaha - that's a good one!!!

Yeah - he is about to knock out the Russians with his magnificent mouse!

[cosmicone]

5. And I'll huff and I'll puff and I'll blowwwwwwwwwwwwwww your house down. n/t

[dipsydoodle]

42. end all relations with Moscow ?

Not sure he meant that. Its 32 f in Kiev - just checked their weather.