Gates sees software replacing people; Greenspan calls for more H-1Bs
Source: Computerworld
Both agree that U.S. secondary education system needs much improvement
March 14, 2014 04:12 PM ET
WASHINGTON - Bill Gates and Alan Greenspan, in separate forums here, offered outlooks and prescriptions for fixing jobs and income.
Microsoft co-founder Gates, an optimist who says the pace of innovation is faster than ever, is concerned that graduates of U.S. secondary schools may not be able stay ahead of software automation.
Gates called it "software substitution," or systems capable of doing jobs now done by people.
"These things are coming fast," said Gates, in an interview with the American Enterprise Institute (See video). "Twenty years from now labor demand for a lots of skill sets will be substantially lower, and I don't think people have that in their mental model."
Gates said the U.S. secondary education system has to improve to keep pace with the changes.
Read more: http://www.computerworld.com/s/article/9246986/Gates_sees_software_replacing_people_Greenspan_calls_for_more_H_1Bs_
Snip~ "In Greenspan's view, secondary education is deteriorating. If the education system isn't fixed, the U.S. will need an open H-1B policy, he argued."
= new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight:
NoneDon't highlight anything
5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
another_liberal
(8,821 posts)Especially not if we spend all of our money on six billion dollar destroyers and yet another new generation of Super Carriers. And don't even get me started on the "Terminator" style robots the Pentagon thinks we should be investing our scarce resources on!
bossy22
(3,547 posts)The u.s. spends more money on education than any other country other than norway.
another_liberal
(8,821 posts)That is the figure one should meditate on.
Just how many damn wars do we have to be prepared to fight at one time anyway?
Skittles
(153,147 posts)Last edited Fri Mar 14, 2014, 10:02 PM - Edit history (1)
how about keeping jobs HERE (meaning more people Americans would look at such a career path if they knew the jobs weren't leaving in droves) and PAYING PEOPLE WHAT THEY ARE WORTH
pragmatic_dem
(410 posts)More tech jobs going to H1Bs and more tech jobs are going to India to 24 yr olds using computers for the first time.
Fucking billionaires - they only know one thing - strip mining human capital, converting the wealth of others into power in Washington.
People don't understand that just because you are rich, it doesn't mean you are entitled to govern.
They will send you to die in Iraq, they will send your job to the shithouse slums of Asia, and they expect us to bail them out when they steal your pension fund. They are consumed with taking every last goddamn dime from this nation.
It can't continue this way. Seriously, this shit has to stop.
Skittles
(153,147 posts)I'll leave it at that 
OhioChick
(23,218 posts)admonish
(57 posts)Thor_MN
(11,843 posts)If "The Market" is telling a tale, we desperately need more Executive talent, an H1-CEO visa. The pay rates of executives is sky rocketing, therefore corporations must seeking in a talent pool that is too small. We need to import the best and brightest executive talent from other countries.
OTOH, pay for talent covered by H1-B visas is stagnant or declining, indicating no need.
47of74
(18,470 posts)Stick those H1-B visas where the sun doesn't shine Alan.
alp227
(32,015 posts)
mdbl
(4,973 posts)Greenspan is the idiot fascist that was asked about bad mortgages in 2004 and said everything was fine, and in 2008 said, I guess I was wrong. What a self-serving pig.
pragmatic_dem
(410 posts)When the rich scolded the middle class for not keeping up with technology, millions of people went back to school to learn information technology only to have the rich ship the jobs to unskilled labor in india at $7/Hr.
Greenspan and Gates - two sons of bitches who lash out at teachers, students and anyone who isn't a billionaire. Yet, here we are bailing out Wall Street fraud and buying microsoft products for Kindergarten (programmed in India).
The rich will keep blaming us while they live virtually tax free from the incentives we give them to send jobs to Asia.
Is there a politically feasible antidote? Professor Piketty notes that the standard recipe — education for all — is no match against the powerful forces driving inherited wealth ever higher.
Taxes are, of course, the most feasible counterweight. Progressive wealth taxes could reduce the after-tax return to capital so that it equaled the rate of economic growth.
But politically, “the fiscal institutions to redistribute incomes in a balanced and equitable way have been badly damaged,” Professor Piketty told me.
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/12/business/economy/a-relentless-rise-in-unequal-wealth.html?_r=0
another_liberal
(8,821 posts)They do indeed.
blackspade
(10,056 posts)initiatives, teaching to tests, etc.
And then he blames the college system that has to play catchup and leaves young people in debt for life.
And don't get me started on that corporate hack Greenspan....
sulphurdunn
(6,891 posts)where public schools turn out obedient, cheap labor cubicle drones who exist to serve people like them. Only a corporate media with a privatization agenda would give either of these discredited fools the time of day on the topic of education. Their brave new world of global education is designed only for public institutions. The private schools that educated them apparently turn out exactly the right people for the dystopian corporate feudalism they would impose upon the entire world.
greatlaurel
(2,004 posts)Judging from the performance of Windows 8, we are in no danger from any Microsoft garbage software anytime soon. It is too bad Bill did not get some good psychotherapy so he would not be such a sociopath. What a creep.
Greenspan shilling for H1B visas just continues his war on workers. He should be in jail. It is shocking that he is not covered with rotten fruit every time he appears in public.
Two rich fools who should shut up and go count their money and be happy they are not in jail. If they keep up their attacks on the public institutions and ordinary people, that could change.
ChromeFoundry
(3,270 posts)...like their opinion even matters!
if ( Greenspan.HasMouthOpen || Gates.IsTalking ) {
throw new ArguementOutOfRangeException();
}
else {
Greenspan = Gates = null;
continue;
}
Fearless
(18,421 posts)They do way more damage than good.
ErikJ
(6,335 posts)help out on the shortage. They will be able to diagnose AND operate more accurately than human doctors.
another_liberal
(8,821 posts)They won't have good enough insurance.
pragmatic_dem
(410 posts)pragmatic_dem
(410 posts)will be sent to India where an unregulated and unlicensed lab tech working for $5/hr will run the test and charge the hospital $20 and the hospital will then charge you $400.
And that's why the rich say America has the best health care system in the world.
OhioChick
(23,218 posts)Published: November 16, 2003
SANJAY SAINI was not prepared for the hate mail. A radiologist at Massachusetts General Hospital, Dr. Saini thought he had found a clever way to relieve an acute shortage of specialists who could read X-rays and M.R.I. scans. The hospital would beam images electronically from some scans to India, to be worked on by radiologists there.
http://www.nytimes.com/2003/11/16/business/who-s-reading-your-x-ray.html
Radiology is top choice for aspiring doctors
At his plush diagnostic centre in central Bangalore, Dr S Suresh and his staff of 10 conduct X-rays, CT scans, etc for eight to 10 hospitals across the city. After 5 pm, it's time for teleradiology services, where another team of 10, armed with radiology diplomas, interpret test results for hospitals across the US.
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/home/science/Radiology-is-top-choice-for-aspiring-doctors/articleshow/22593531.cms
jsr
(7,712 posts)ChromeFoundry
(3,270 posts)Medicare and Medicaid will only reimburse reads performed by a doctor licensed in the US. The readings are often outsourced to US-based consulting companies that transmit the scans and noted overseas for assessment (performed by an individual who's credentials cannot be verified). The results are sent back the the US, and a US-credentialed doctor quickly reviews the assessment and transfers the findings back to the hospital.
A US-credentialed doctor that is legally allowed to read and assess X-ray, CT and/or MRI data makes over $250,000 / year.
Foreign counterpart with unverified credentials makes about $25,000 / year.
The US-Credentialed doctor is the name that is digitally signed on the assessment. Therefore, medicare and medicaid will ultimately pay for the procedure. If you ever had one of these procedures performed between 6PM and 8AM in a small to normal sized hospital - there is no question that the readings were performed by someone that is not at the hospital, and most likely an outside contract.
This practice has been common for over a decade.
http://www.nytimes.com/2003/11/16/business/who-s-reading-your-x-ray.html
http://www.nbcnews.com/id/44949425/ns/health-cancer/t/doctor-reading-your-x-rays-maybe-not/#.UyRqiYX2lZI
ErikJ
(6,335 posts)Just Google robot doctor and you'll get plenty of articles about current technology and future
..........................
“I would say that within an hour I trained him more than with other students I’ve been working with for a week, so I think he’s learning really fast,” Garami said in a video released by NASA.
In the video, the automaton performs an ultrasound scan on a mannequin and demonstrates using a syringe as if it were giving an injection.
“His motions, without shaky hands, are very precise and gentle. There were no sudden motions,” Garami told Computerworld.
Research shows that robots may be better at carrying out certain kinds of surgery than humans.
A study by the University of Maryland School of Medicine in 2008 showed that patients who underwent minimally invasive heart-bypass surgery using a robot had shorter hospital stays, faster recovery times, and fewer complications than patients who had undergone traditional surgery. ....................http://rt.com/news/robonaut-nasa-doctor-space-192/
pragmatic_dem
(410 posts)at best there will be a technician (possibly not the doctor) using a manipulator for directed radiation treatment or special surgical treatment. Automated surgical procedures is not in near future.
Big difference between injection/ultrasound and removing a tumor, hip replacement etc.
ErikJ
(6,335 posts)The DaVinci robot is now the preferred way to operate for prostate surgery. It can operate with more precision and smoother with better results. It is still guided by remote control by a surgeon but its just a matter of time b4 they do it on their own. And I've heard that diagnostic computers are better than humans. Watson which beat all humans on Jeopardy is being developed in this way.
Davinci > 
pragmatic_dem
(410 posts)An IBM system (presumably Watson, but I don't know that for a fact) is what NTSB uses to link automobile deaths to auto design defects. It sends out form letters to parents of kids killed in car wrecks saying there is no evidence of a defect, including dozens (100s?) dead because GM ignition switch problem that caused car to turn off. You've probably heard about this.
I understand the potential but also the limits of technology and we aren't as close as you might think.
Laser surgery for eye sight is probably more advanced in terms of potential for automation than anything else - but a small mistake can lead to blindness.
Those prostate machines are also expensive, so is procedure which runs about $30K to $40k.
ErikJ
(6,335 posts)With microprocessing power doubling every yr its just a few years. I think it would be good. The AMA wont allow more Med students? OK we'll go around you f-ers.
pragmatic_dem
(410 posts)and elsewhere. yep, they are cheaper. In many areas it is getting difficult to find a 100% US trained, US born doctor.
It is very hard to program computers to solve open-ended problems as well as humans. Intuition/creative thinking just isn't easy to program into a machine.
I am interested in automated vehicles and think that has a good possibility of becoming a reality in next 20 years.
Trackless, wire guided (or sight guided) vehicles seem completely feasible. Then you can say fuck you to traffic jams, just kick back and listen to radio, do some work, drink coffee, stare out window, etc.
Used to love taking train to work...
AzDar
(14,023 posts)citizenry isn't educated enough, must issue more H-1Bs to compensate...
yurbud
(39,405 posts)Dem4ever27
(49 posts)I'm concerned about H1B visas destroying the US job market in tech, so that makes me inclined to oppose them. On the other hand, I'm in favor of giving undocumented immigrants from Latin America a break. How can I square these two views?
Just a question.
pragmatic_dem
(410 posts)the other is bribed to come here and be used as a vehicle for deducting capital/operational expenses from income taxes so that profits can be hidden.
Corporations have learned how to use our H1B and offshoring systems into a profit center regardless of the quality/quantity of goods and services produced. India can sit on their asses all day and still make money for the company by tax refunds, credits and deductions.
On edit -
I almost forgot, the H1Bs learn whatever they can here, and then head back to India to work for a company that competes against US. Is this a great country or what?
Dem4ever27
(49 posts)And none of them stay in the US?
And US corporations don't make a profit on Latinos?
I'm not sure any of this is true.
pragmatic_dem
(410 posts)Many Asians would not come here to work if they had to prepare and pay for their own visas and corporations couldn't deduct expenses for offshoring and H1B.
India is cheaper than Mexico and/or Brazil - but our biggest import/export in electronics is with Mexico. Why?
Because of the parts used by factories in Mexico that are used to assemble just about all larger electronic items- computers, TVs, etc.
Thanks NAFTA.
And an engineer/programmer can live a pretty good life in Mexico, with a decent wage relatively clean water and reliable electricity.
However, India is changing everything.
And in fact, even China is feeling pinch of low cost labor from India.
Many H1B engineers will head back to India once they have learned enough. They will go back and manage the growing teams in India.
I've seen this outsourcing for many years, first hand. When the CEO meets with exec staff on cutting costs to increase profit, this is the conversation they are having - the tax team is always well represented.
There are large firms laying off right now with a mandate handed down that 80% of all work must go to India.
Mexico is too expensive for professional labor. India, Indonesia, Malaysia all cheaper than Mexico, but costs rising, China is being priced out - and push is for transpacific partnership to get access to Vietnam for cheaper labor.
Anyone who has been in the tech business from development thru mfg knows what I am saying is 100% true.
To be fair this is a problem that is the biggest contributor to decline of middle class - a class notorious for not looking after their own best interests. And I have colleagues who are up at 6AM and 12 AM every day to happily lead the teams in India taking over the jobs from 20 guys just laid-off. They think it won't happen to them, but it will.
Teams in India do not like taking direction from US management. Push now is to bring over H1Bs train them here, and send them back to lead in India to hopefully solve major productivity and accountability problems.
But really, you don't have to believe me. You can pretend the reason a million jobs go to Asia is that our schools are bad. Or maybe you think our teachers are bad, or you can pretend our wages have not stagnated since 1970s because of some other reason.
But that's not the truth. The truth is, labor is cheap and completely unregulated in Asia. You will be watching China's slow motion collapse because work that used to go to them is going to India. When TPP hits, China is going to get ugly. They all got rich on US investment, but it is a bubble. They priced themselves out.
Don't believe me, but you owe me an explanation of your theory of root cause for massive income disparity and offshoring to Asia.
amandabeech
(9,893 posts)There are many Americans who can and will do jobs that unskilled and semi-skilled undocumented immigrants do.
I frequently travel to an area of the US where there are few immigrants and US born folks of all colors are doing those jobs and getting paid for it. It's better than depending on a Republican controlled Congress to approve long-term unemployment insurance even if the work is not glamorous.
The difference is that few if any DUers are among those who would be glad to get a job in a food processing plant or working on a landscaping crew.
But a lot of citizens and permanent residents really need those jobs and will do them if employers will hire them instead of undocumented workers.
A lot of people from other countries would like to come here to work, and most of them are perfectly decent people.
But we just don't have enough jobs to go around for people who are here legally and are ready to work.
As much as I'd like to help out people from other countries, I think we owe those jobs to people who having been living here and playing by the rules all the time. If we don't, we will lose whatever trust we have in each other and what civility is left in our society.
jsr
(7,712 posts)
snot
(10,520 posts)This is an issue of, if less work is needed to create more wealth, we need to spread more of the wealth.
mdbl
(4,973 posts)His company finally got it right with Windows 7 and they go and screw it all up.