Russia escalates buildup of forces near Ukraine border

[TomClash]

Source: CBS News

U.S. intelligence now estimates the Russian troop buildup near the Ukraine border at 40,000 to 50,000, according to CBS News correspondent David Martin.

The increase is due to the continued arrival of logistical units - for instance, field hospitals - that would be needed to sustain operations. The intent of the buildup is still not known but the Russians have assembled "all the elements of combat power" needed to invade, according to officials.

Analysts have come up with four potential scenarios that could unfold, Martin reports. First, the Russians could cut all the way across Ukraine to the pro-Russian enclave of Transdniester in Moldova; second, they could try to take Kiev; third, they could take the predominantly Russian-speaking cities of southeastern Ukraine; and finally, they could take the cities necessary to establish a land corridor to Crimea.
Russia has the forces to execute any of these scenarios, Martin reports, and they are ready to go with little or no notice. As with all buildups, a military force can only sustain a peak level of readiness for so long before it starts to decay - the old "use it or lose it" syndrome. They could use it by invading, conducting an exercise or standing down.

The Russian buildup is taking place 30 to 120 kilometers back from the border. If the Russians go into Ukraine, Martin expects news of any invasion would come from people on the ground, which is the way it happened in Crimea.





Read more: http://www.cbsnews.com/news/russia-escalates-buildup-of-forces-near-ukraine-border/

---

Field hospitals.

[happyslug]

1. Also can be set up to handle refugees

Can the Russians take the Ukraine, I have no doubts. The real issue can they hold it, or hold a part they occupy? Putin does NOT want a guerrilla war on his hands, so taking the Western Ukraine, where the main opposition to Russian rule exists, will be out of the question.

Kiev is the center of the Ukraine, he who hold Kiev holds the Ukraine. Thus taking Kiev would be the first step in any attack. The real question is how much beyond Kiev will Russia go? Given that the Ukraine, like Russia itself, is one flat pancake, it would be hard to prevent Guerrillas from going anywhere in the Ukraine, thus even taking Kiev will bring with it a large chance of Guerrilla attacks.

In simple terms, since Putin does NOT want all of the Ukraine, I have my doubts he will taken any, except that can be isolated from the rest of the Ukraine (such as the Crimea, which is surrounded on all sides by large bodies of water). The rest of the Ukraine flows to much into each other for any line to be anything then a line drawn in the sand. Thus I just can NOT see Putin taking any more of the Ukraine.

On the other hand, if large segments of the Eastern and Southern Ukraine breaks away from the rest of the Ukraine, he will support them and if the break away is accepted by the Ukraine, he will annex those areas into Russia. I do not see Putin taking those areas, but he will move in troops to prevent any Ukrainian suppression of separation movements in the Eastern Ukraine.

Time will tell what will happen, but having troops capable of invading does not mean one is about to invade. Those troops can be there for other reasons, including handling any refugees that may go over the border do to internal fighting in the Ukraine. Given the internal problems of the Ukraine, Putin would be better off just sitting on the border waiting to see what the Ukrainians themselves do. If it is peaceful, Putin I suspect will do nothing. If violence breaks out, Putin will move in.

[HereSince1628]

2. As you say time will tell. But, not perparing for the worst means

not being prepared for the worst. That's a serious issue for Ukraine and central European nations.

IMO, this is a question for the Eurozone which could by relationships with NATO, drag us into a painful fight.

The US frackers would love to see a problem in gas delivery, but Europeans are quite able to look at a situation and decide what is in their interest. I think the Eurozone will cave to their energy needs and allow the RF to do whatever it wishes.