LePage Leads in Three-Way Race

[brooklynite]

Source: PoliticalWire

A new Pan Atlantic SMS poll in Maine shows Gov. Paul LePage (R) leading his re-election race with 39%, followed by Michael Michaud (D) at 37% and Eliot Cutler (I) at 20%.

Read more: http://politicalwire.com/archives/2014/04/17/lepage_leads_in_three-way_race.html

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This is what I was worried about. As long as Mainers insist on supporting Independents, the Teas Party is going to be able to squeak through. Personally, I'm ignoring what happens there: it's not a battleground State for Presidential races, and there are other States with better prospects for Senate pickups.

[totodeinhere]

1. I understand what you're saying, but it would be really good to somehow

get rid of LePage. He is a real dinosaur and the people of Maine can do so much better than that.

[brooklynite]

6. Then the people of Maine need to make some choices...

Right now, a majority of voters polled are supporting him or ready to let him stay in office.

[George II]

9. Not a majority, a plurality.

[brooklynite]

12. 39% + 20% is a majority

[totodeinhere]

23. No candidate has a majority but LePage has a narrow plurality.

Of course a narrow plurality would be all it takes to reelect him.

[brooklynite]

24. My point is that a majority are prepared to NOT vote for the Democrat...

...who is the only practical alternative to LePage.

[George II]

25. Where does the 20% come from?

[bigdarryl]

2. 39% to 37% That's not much of a lead

If you just read the head line you would have though he had a 10 point lead.Why is it that when rethugs lead by 1 or two points on a democrat it's considered like a blowout but when reverse it's a tie with the democrats leading a rethug.

[marble falls]

3. We need to change the elections in which more than three run.....

1. 51% to win.
2. No 51% - run off with top two.
3. None of the above is an option - 51% - new election.

[oldandhappy]

4. sad news

The gov is a piece of work. Hard to believe he will be back.

[Blue Idaho]

5. Look at it this way - 57% want LaPage out...

Since the election isn't tomorrow there is time for votes to shift - lets hope they shift towards Michaud.

[onehandle]

7. Fuck Independents and Third Parties!

[ForgoTheConsequence]

10. What a brilliant comment.

Completely sensible and enlightening, thank you.

[rpannier]

19. You mean like this one

Virginia 2013 Governor
Mc Auliffe (Dem) 48%
Cuccinelli (Rep) 46%
Sarvis (Libertarian) 6%

Without Sarvis Cuccinelli would likely be Virginia's governor

[onehandle]

20. Without Nader, Gore WOULD have been President. nt

[yeoman6987]

26. Without Ron Paul

Bob Dole would have been President instead of Bill Clinton.

[KamaAina]

30. I think you mean Ross Perot

same initials, bigger ears, far less racism.

[yeoman6987]

31. lol.

Your right.

[ForgoTheConsequence]

28. Bullshit.

Gore won the popular vote. Blame the corrupt Florida electoral system and the Supreme Court.


If someone chose to vote for Nader that doesn't mean that they would have voted for Gore if they didn't have another option.

[onehandle]

29. If one half of one percent of the Nader voters in Florida would have voted for Gore...

...Gore would have won.

Nader and the Greens worked 24/7 in Florida to make those voters stay the course.

[TeamPooka]

8. Come on Maine, get it together and beat this asshole!

[Gormy Cuss]

11. More support for Independents and third party candidates is what is needed in this country.

LePage won't win if the Dems work hard enough to convince the populace that Michaud is the best candidate.

[alp227]

14. wait, what? you're saying two things at once.

I don't get your post.

[Gormy Cuss]

15. Nope. Said two things one after the other, but

the second is related to the first: Dems (and GOPs for that matter) need to win on their own merits and if they are lax about selecting and promoting candidates they shouldn't blame third party candidates or independents for the loss.

But back to the first, IMHO we need more choices to invigorate our system. It's unnatural to have only two parties matter in a democracy. I say that as a lifelong registered Democrat.

[aceofblades]

21. Given the structure of our government and system of electing representatives

on both a national local level (presidential and non parliamentary) many political scientists have argued that a two party system indeed does seem to be a "natural" equilibrium state most of the time. There's also the famous 'Duverger's Law', which was based upon observations of data, argues that most countries that use of single-member districts and plurality rule for elections, marginalizes small parties and foster the development of a two party system. This is in contrast to proportional representation used in many parliamentary democracies(many of which have sustained third parties that routinely obtain representation in national legislatures.)


There are counter examples to be sure, but in my opinion, there are other unique qualities to the history and electorate of those countries which affect the application of this 'law'(which Duverger himself said was not absolute).

I should also say, that I think there are reasonable arguments about changing parts of our elective system, but as I mentioned above, there are reasons to suspect why a two party system is more or less a 'natural' evolution of the structure of government and elections in the U.S.

Regardless, Mr. Cutler has already run against Governor Lepage and lost. It seems, from polling, he has less support this time around If you're an independent and you can win, that's one thing (Angus King/Bernie Sanders). When you've already lost in the past, are currently losing, and refuse to drop out and improve the chances of the closest available ideological candidate in the process, then I think others can rightly start to look at you as a Ralph Nader type.

[Gormy Cuss]

22. Cutler nearly beat LePage last time

because many Democrats found him to be a better candidate than the party choice. If Michaud is the candidate this time, that won't be true. This poll shows Michaud essentially in a dead heat and that means that the party should be able to come out victorious if the campaigning is smart.


(and thanks for the political science perspectives on two party systems.)

[EC]

13. You'd think they would learn.

That means it's just like the Federal Government now. Little more than a third of the people will be represented in the state.

[blkmusclmachine]

16. DEMS must work harder to show why voters should pick them. Enough difference-splitting "bipartisansh

-it."

Third Way sucks.

[IronLionZion]

17. Ranked or instant runoff voting would be good for states

with a strong indie streak.

Either way, I hope Mainers can rid of that loser

[DFW]

18. I experienced LePage up close, first hand last weekend

What can I use to describe him? Oaf? Thug? Jerk?

More like all of the above and more. How ANYONE can support this clown is a mystery to me.

[Historic NY]

27. Maine stop dicking and start dickering....

if you want to get rid of Lepage.