UPDATED: NYTimes Poll Suprise: Southern Senate Dems In The Lead

[DonViejo]

Last edited Wed Apr 23, 2014, 01:37 PM - Edit history (1)

Source: TPM

DANIEL STRAUSS – APRIL 23, 2014, 9:41 AM EDT

A round of new polls conducted by The New York Times and Kaiser Family Foundation have some good (and surprising) news for a handful of Southern Senate Democrats regarded as the most vulnerable in the 2014 election cycle.

The polls, released Wednesday, found Sen. Mark Pryor (D-AR) leading Rep. Tom Cotton (R-AR) 46 percent to 36 percent. In Kentucky, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) just barely leads Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) 44 percent to 43 percent, the poll found.

Meanwhile, in North Carolina Sen. Kay Hagan (D-NC) is neck-and-neck with House Speaker Thom Tillis (R-NC) in a hypothetical matchup with Hagan getting 42 percent while Tillis gets 40 percent.

Lastly, Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-LA) has a commanding lead over Rep. Bill Cassidy (R-LA) and the rest of the field in the Louisiana Senate race. That finding deserves a caveat: Louisiana's primary system is something called a "jungle primary" where there is no Republican or Democratic primary. Instead all candidates run together and if no candidate gets 50 percent of the vote, the top two candidates face each other in a runoff election. The poll found Landrieu with 42 percent followed by Cassidy with 18 percent. No other candidate managed to get double digits.

Read more: http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/poll-kay-hagan-mark-pryor-mary-landrieu-alison-lundergan-grimes-democrats-southern

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DANIEL STRAUSS – APRIL 23, 2014, 12:30 PM EDT

The New York Times' Nate Cohn pushed back on criticism of a set of new polls released Wednesday that showed Southern Democrats either leading or neck-and-neck in four Senate races that have long been regarded as easy pickups for Republicans in the 2014 cycle.

Cohn responded to criticism from, in particular, The Weekly Standard's Bill Kristol and the Republican National Committee over the poll. Kristol argued that the poll's survey results on a question over who voters supported in 2012 proves the poll is clearly skewed toward Democrats. Cohn brushed off that argument.

"But there’s a well-known bias toward the victor in post-election surveys. Respondents who voted for the loser often say that they don’t remember whom they supported, or say they supported someone else," Cohn wrote. "The signs of that bias are obvious upon closer examination. The poll accurately captures Mr. Obama’s support, but tends to underestimate Mr. Romney’s performance."

The RNC also sent out a response to the poll's findings arguing that the poll's findings were clearly wrong because of the findings of those surveyed on 2012 questions.

more
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/new-york-times-defense-polls-southern-democrats-senate

[Omaha Steve]

1. Party time

K&R!

[1StrongBlackMan]

17. Nope ...

Get Out The Democratic Vote TIME!

Poll results like these can cut both ways ... some will see them and be swayed to the "winners"; while others will see it a think, "They don't need my vote."

[Enthusiast]

28. +1 an entire shit load.

[bigworld]

2. 50 state strategy, people!

Too many DC-based party people have written off the south. Don't! Just because the folks there are a little more socially conservative than we'd like, it doesn't mean that they've swallowed all the GOP's lies. Democrats have to keep hammering away at how the GOP is screwing over the little guy, pay attention to local issues, get people to the polls, and we'll get the votes.

[Recursion]

8. People say they love that, but then they get irritated at the conservative dems that takes

You can't run Elizabeth Warren in Louisiana; you can run Mary Landrieu. But that means you end up with Mary Landrieu, which pisses a lot of people off.

[sofa king]

11. I think that problem is going to grow, too.

Let's visualize total success in this election and try to guess what happens after the House is flipped and the Senate has a supermajority.

My guess is that after universal health care is passed and unicorns start pooping out middle class jobs starting in 2015, individual politicians of that less-than-idealistic stripe will naturally gravitate toward the party in power--the Democrats.

Since the late 1990s the Democrats have done a very good job policing themselves both for personalities and for criminal behavior. That's going to help a lot when the rats start paddling for the lifeboat.

But the problem will be large and massive, and in many cases we'll have to make compromises that will cause bitter resentment among the purists and disappointment among all as less gets done with a stronger majority.

We simply cannot assimilate some of those people, those politicians without conscience and the ruthless social climbers who cloud about them. If we do, we risk becoming the enemy we have worked so hard to overcome.

[1StrongBlackMan]

18. Until ...

of course, one thinks about Committee Chairs, judicial nominations and a bunch of Democratic legislation.

[VanillaRhapsody]

26. and that is the way it is.....

If you live in the South....you understand....ANY Democrat is better than a Republican.

[pacalo]

29. Damn straight, VR.

[Dustlawyer]

20. #1!

[zazen]

3. assuming our NC voters can actually vote given our new restrictions . . . . n/t

[mnhtnbb]

25. I already see a difference

Here in Orange County--one of the most progressive of counties in NC and home to UNC-Chapel Hill--
early voting sites for May primaries do NOT include an on campus voting site. Closest place for early
voting is off campus at Hillel.

[not fooled]

4. Quick! Koch Brothers to the Rescue!!

Time to pour $50 million into the 'puke campaigns!!!

Spend enough money to con the voters!!!

They are just gearing to launch the next round in their continued assault on democracy.

[SunSeeker]

5. Landrieu's high numbers prove touting the ACA is a winning strategy. nt

[Botany]

6. The demographics are brutal for the republicans

Hence all the voter suppression laws and acts. Someday even
Mississippi, Texas, South Carolina, and Alabama* will turn blue.
African Americans, Hispanics, women, the young, unions, teachers,
and others will outnumber the old white man that is the base of the
republican party ..... but don't expect "them" to give up power w/out a
fight ..... a dirty media, tons of money, and republican appointed judges
are all part of the republican fire wall to keep power.


* Oklahoma, Idaho, Utah, & Wyoming might be lost causes for years
to come.

[Beacool]

7. I don't want to jinx it, but I'm cautiously optimistic.

I think that the Senate IS in the balance. We are only in April, anything can happen until November. I'll keep my fingers and toes crossed until election day.

[ebbie15644]

9. It comes down to turnout and I am sorry but

historically dems don't show. Not optimistic yet.

[Brainstormy]

10. Michelle Nunn is leading

in the Georgia senate polls, too.

http://www.politico.com/story/2014/01/michelle-nunn-georgia-elections-2014-polls-102824.html

[No Vested Interest]

22. This poll is from Jan. 2014. Need something more

recent for current accuracy.

[Arkana]

12. Pryor beating that shitheel Cotton would be AWESOME.

[Hestia]

13. We'll see the proprietary voting machines tell us in November

[Peacetrain]

14. Can you see the grin on my face?

It is ear to ear..

[IronLionZion]

15. The south will rise again! Yeehaw!

50-state strategy is the way to put long time liberals in leadership positions by taking back the majority.

A vote for any kind of Dem, is a vote for liberal Dems who create policy and choose which bills to promote.

[crazylikafox]

16. true

[totodeinhere]

21. I understand your point. But as you know there was a time in recent history

when conservative southern Dems held most of the power in the Senate due to their seniority. I would hate to see that happen again. I think our best bet is that demographic changes will soon make it easier for bona fide liberlas to win in the South.

[IronLionZion]

23. That ship has sailed

Both parties have changed so much, and the demographics of America has changed towards more diversity, and attitudes as a nation has grown towards more acceptance. Younger generations are more socially liberal, and more wary of many conservative social policies.

The south still has economic liberals who like government spending on things like education, infrastructure, healthcare, and military bases.

[JudyM]

19. Thrilling overall, but especially to not have to see/hear McConnell's smugness any more. nt

[Kingofalldems]

24. Filthy cavers not liking this one.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

27. This shouldn't be surprising, as a majority of black and Hispanic Americans reside in the American

South. The problem is that our voices often get drowned out and in the past not enough of us came out to vote. However, my people down in Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina and Texas are FIRED UP!!! They are so ready to vote. Much of my family lives in Georgia and they are so excited about Jimmy Carter's grandson and Sam Nun's daughter. I think they are really fired up about that. Many of my folks in North Carolina are pissed off about the voter suppression laws there. And Wendy Davis is popular in Texas despite reports to the contrary. The Corporate Media wants us to be demoralized by constantly telling us that we're destined to lose the House and Senate because we won't come out and vote. I'm beginning to question this so-called foregone conclusion. We must act as if this is the case and vote, even though I don't believe it.