Payroll employment rises 288,000 in April; unemployment rate falls to 6.3%

[mahatmakanejeeves]

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION -- APRIL 2014

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 288,000, and the unemployment rate fell by 0.4 percentage point to 6.3 percent in April, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment gains were widespread, led by job growth in professional and business services, retail trade, food services and drinking places, and construction.

Household Survey Data

In April, the unemployment rate fell from 6.7 percent to 6.3 percent, and the number of unemployed persons, at 9.8 million, decreased by 733,000. Both measures had shown little movement over the prior 4 months. Over the year, the unemployment rate and the number of unemployed persons declined by 1.2 percentage points and 1.9 million, respectively. (See table A-1.)
....

The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) declined by 287,000 in April to 3.5 million; these individuals accounted for 35.3 percent of the unemployed. Over the past 12 months, the number of long-term unemployed has decreased by 908,000. (See table A-12.)

The civilian labor force dropped by 806,000 in April, following an increase of 503,000 in March. The labor force participation rate fell by 0.4 percentage point to 62.8 percent in April. The participation rate has shown no clear trend in recent months and currently is the same as it was this past October. The employment-population ratio showed no change over the month (58.9 percent) and has changed little over the year. (See table A-1.)

Read more: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

---

Live From New York! It’s Jobs Friday!

8:10 AM
May 2, 2014 ET
By Paul Vigna


—National Archives

Yes, it’s that time again, folks. It’s the first Friday of the month, when for one ever-so-brief moment the interests of Wall Street, Washington and Main Street are all aligned on one thing: Jobs.

A fresh update on the U.S. employment situation for March hit the wires at 8:30 a.m. New York time, offering one of the most important snapshots on how the economy fared last month.

Expectations are relatively high, after a strong number from ADP on Wednesday and a string of “better than expected” reports that indicate recent weakness was largely weather-related. Street consensus for this mornings report is 215,000 new jobs were created in April, ticking the unemployment rate down to 6.6%.

Here at MoneyBeat HQ, we’ll be offering color commentary and tracking the markets before and after the data crosses the wires. Feel free to weigh-in yourself, via the comments section. And while you’re here, why don’t you sign up to follow us on Twitter.

Enjoy the show.

-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --

Good morning, Freepers and DUers alike. I especially welcome our friends from across the aisle. You're paying for this information too, so you ought to see this as much as anyone. Please, everyone, put aside your differences long enough to digest the information. After that, you can engage in your usual donnybrook.

Depending on where you look, you can find something to like or something not to like in the data. One item of concern is the drop in the labor force participation rate, which fell by 0.4 percentage point to 62.8 percent in April.

If you don't have the time to study the report thoroughly, here is the news in a nutshell:

Commissioner's Statement on The Employment Situation
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/jec.nr0.htm

What is important about these statistics is not so much this month’s number, but the trend. So let’s look at some earlier numbers.

ADP® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in April 2014:

ADP National Employment Report Shows 220,000 Jobs Added in April
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014792358

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in March 2014:

Payroll employment increases in March (+192,000); unemployment rate unchanged (6.7%)
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014772273

ADP® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in March 2014:

U.S. Economy Added 191,000 Private-Sector Jobs in March, According to ADP National Employment Report
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014770525

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in February 2014:

Payroll employment increases in February (+175,000); unemployment rate changes little (6.7 percent)
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014747923

ADP, for employment in February 2014:

U.S. Economy Added 139,000 Private-Sector Jobs in February, According to ADP National Employment Report
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014745826

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in January 2014:

Payroll employment rises in January (+113,000); unemployment rate changes little (6.6%)
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014721228

ADP, for employment in January 2014:

U.S. Economy Added 175,000 Private-Sector Jobs in January, According to ADP National Employment Report
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014719171

BLS, for employment in December 2013, which was wildly out of line with ADP's figure:

December unemployment rate declines (6.7%); payroll employment edges up (+74,000)
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014693851

ADP, for employment in December 2013:

U.S. Economy Added 238,000 Private-Sector Jobs in December, According to ADP National Employment Report
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014691789

One more thing:

So how many jobs must be created every month to have an effect on the unemployment rate? There's an app for that.

http://www.frbatlanta.org/chcs/calculator/index.cfm
Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Jobs Calculator™

Well, enough of that. On with the show.

Monthly Employment Reports

The large print giveth, and the fine print taketh away.

A DU'er pointed out several months ago that, if I'm going to post the link to the press release, I should include the link to all the tables that provide additional ways of examining the data. Specifically, I should post a link to Table A-15. Alternative measures of labor underutilization. Table A-15 includes those who are not considered unemployed, on the grounds that they have become discouraged about the prospects of finding a job and have given up looking. Here are those links.

Employment Situation

Table A-15. Alternative measures of labor underutilization

From the February 10, 2011, DOL Newsletter:

Take Three

Secretary Solis answers three questions about how the Bureau of Labor Statistics calculates unemployment rates.

How does BLS determine the unemployment rate and the number of jobs that were added each month?

BLS uses two different surveys to get these numbers. The household survey, or Current Population Survey (CPS), involves asking people, from about 60,000 households, a series of questions to assess each person in the household's activities including work and searching for work. Their responses give us the unemployment rate. The establishment survey, or Current Employment Statistics (CES), surveys 140,000 employers about how many people they have on their payrolls. These results determine the number of jobs being added or lost.

[BumRushDaShow]

1. As always, thanks for posting!

Considering the extreme weather over the winter, hopefully we'll see an uptick in employment as the year progresses.

[livetohike]

2. Nice to see good news! Hope it all continues.

[Archae]

3. Faux "news" won't even mention this...

Or as always, lie about it.

[BlueEye]

4. "The fine print taketh away."

Quite. I wholeheartedly agree this is net good news, and proof that this administration's policies are working despite the obstructionism.

BUT, the labor force participation rate fell to 62.8% of adults, the lowest level in 35 years. Discouraged workers is a persistent trend, and it is actually getting marginally worse, not better.

[link:http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-labor-force-participation-rate-falls-sharply-in-april-2014-05-02|

These people are why we need to continue/extend unemployment benefits, and in my not-so-humble opinion, entice back to work with gov't programs. New Deal-lite perhaps.

[MannyGoldstein]

5. +1 nt

[LynneSin]

14. It's a valid point but I do have one rhetorical question now about that number

How many people quit looking for a job because now their family can get more affordable healthcare thru Obamacare.

Sure a single person isn't going to have much choice but to find a job to make ends meet.

But I've read about some couples where they were able to get affordable healthcare through Obamacare and one couple stopped looking for a job. Especially if that family had small children to raise. For some people daycare for the kids take a big chunk of change out of the paycheck but the family needs 2 jobs in order to get some sort of healthcare. If they were able to get healthcare thru Obamacare or the expansion of medicaid (if their state expanded it) then it might be cheaper for one parent to just not look for a job anymore.

[BlueEye]

20. That is a fascinating suggestion!

And one that I have seen no data on. I think you raise an important question though. It passes the most basic "reasonableness test"; Obamacare enrollment is approaching 10 million, the labor force is now down in the 154 million ballpark, and has been decreasing in hundred-thousand person intervals the last few months. So there could very well be a causal link there.

[okaawhatever]

24. When the CBO did their report on ACA's impact on the economy they stated that the ACA would

cost the economy X amount of jobs. It was highly controversial because the Repubs mentioned the X amount of jobs only. What the fine print said was that some of those people would leave the workforce due to the availability of insurance. I know several people who have jobs because their spouse is self-employed and the only reason they have said job is because of the ability to get a good family insurance plan. They don't need the money, but their leaving the workforce opens the job up for someone who does.

Also the labor participation rate includes those age 16 and over. It also excludes active duty military. The impact of not having a job at 16 isn't the same as not having a job at 40, and certainly the active-duty military number is higher now than in past recessions (due to the calling up of reserve/guard units). The biggest piece of data to skew labor participation is the baby boomers. Assuming all other things equal, the labor participation rate will be historically low for the next ten to twenty years. The baby boomers have skewed all statistics that take age of population into account. (the reason for high crime rates during the 60's and 70's for example).

[Kber]

34. Or can afford to retire even tho Medicare haven't kicked in.

Put my mom in that category. They will be back filling her position. Win-win.

[JDPriestly]

19. Contrary to the opinion of Republican theorists, unemployment insurance PREVENTS people

from dropping out of the job-seeking-but-not-yet-employed portion of the potential workforce.

I was unemployed a few years ago. As long as I was receiving unemployment insurance, I had to be able to prove that I was applying for work. I finally got a job just as my unemployment insurance was about to run out. But if I had not had the unemployment insurance, who knows when I would have just given up on my job-search. Unemployment throws you into despair. That's why potential employees give up -- despair.

In addition to requiring people to look for work as a condition for receiving unemployment insurance, the small amount of money that the unemployed receive from that insurance can make the difference between whether they can afford to apply for work or not. Applying for jobs is not free. You have to prepare, type, send and mail cover letters (preferably each one tailored to fit the job you are applying for), network (may require a computer or attending meetings or job fairs), have transportation, be able to dry clean a suit or even replace a pair of shoes, etc. Unemployment insurance, as I said, isn't much money, but it can make a difference.

It's so important to feel confident at a job interview. Knowing you won't starve if you don't get the job can help boost your confidence just a little bit.

The Republican/Paul Ryan theory about the role of unemployment insurance in encouraging people to stay unemployed is just so, so wrong. Not just foolishly wrong, but cruelly wrong. And they must know it. That unemployment insurance benefits discourage people from seeking jobs is illogical. Clearly when a person's unemployment insurance benefits are cut off, whether after 3 months or 3 years, it's a kind of subtle signal to the unemployed that they are now deemed to be out of the labor force, just unemployable.

Yet another penny wise, pound foolish Republican theory that doesn't work at all but just sounds kind of clever.

[DCBob]

33. No it doesn't..

There are a number of reasons for the participation rate to fall.. but probably the biggest one is that women are dropping out of the work force at a steady rate since the late 90's..



Other reasons include baby boomer retirements and Obamacare giving people other options for healthcare besides getting a job. For sure some of it is discouraged workers but I suspect that's a minor factor.

[Arkana]

6. Holy butts. That's like 33% higher than any monthly jobs gain we've had in 6 years.

Can't wait to see Fox do the Benghazi Shuffle 24/7 to spin it.

[OnlinePoker]

7. Number of employed dropped by 73,000

At least according to the employment situation summary table, from 145.742 million in March to 145.669 million in April. I don't see where they're getting a 288,000 increase.

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.a.htm

[okaawhatever]

25. Numbers are seasonally adjusted and adjusted for farm payroll. Also the numbers exclude anyone

above a certain age. Now that we have the baby boomers retiring, we will see a reduction in the workforce through aging out and not unemployment. The key is that the unemployment numbers use the same methodology year after year, which they do.

[Kingofalldems]

8. Benghazi!

[IronLionZion]

9. I hope this is from retirements or something positive.

Does anyone have data on why the labor force participation went down so much? Maybe something to do with individual insurance through the ACA?

[sweetloukillbot]

10. There were those reports about the ACA causing people to leave the workforce

because they no longer needed to stay employed to keep insurance?

[LynneSin]

15. that's what I was thinking - especially families with young children

Putting children into daycare so both parents can work can get very expensive. If a family was able to get reasonable priced healthcare thru Obamacare, it might actually be cost efficient for one parent to just stay at home with the kids then to pay for the kids to be in daycare.

[James48]

17. K& R!!

[IronLionZion]

18. And reports that some would choose alternate types of work

and that may be reported differently if they were self-employed doing free lance or seasonal work or similar. Or if they have a member of the family who needs chronic medical treatment and were keeping the regular job just for the benefits.

[yellowcanine]

21. Could actually be a good thing if people were only working to keep their insurance.

Some people could afford to retire a bit early if it weren't for the need for health insurance. This is a good thing - it may mean that a job with benefits is now available for someone else.

[okaawhatever]

26. That was one of the findings in the CBO report. I've had a few friends in that situation over the

years. In mot instances the husband was self-employed and they had enough family income to survive without the spouse working, but the insurance kept the wife in the workforce. In one instance, a woman who had owned a Century 21 office in the past became a school bus driver when she moved here so that she and her husband could get the insurance.

[riqster]

11. Most excellent.

Thanks for posting.

[jpak]

12. Oh Noooess!!!!1111

more Obama Lies!!!!!!

\sarcasm

[Firebrand Gary]

13. K&R

[James48]

16. Where is that graphic when you need it?

You know, the "jobs added "Bikini" graph, that shows the improvement month by month since Barack became President?

[James48]

22. Ah! Here we are:

I knew it was around here someplace.



?itok=VjA1jBFW


The whole story, and another graph too- here:

http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/where-are-the-jobs-theyre-right-here

[laurent]

23. Thanks, but the tiny changes look like statistical noise to me. nt

[factsarenotfair]

28. Focus on the trend. n/t

[okaawhatever]

27. K & R nt

[mahatmakanejeeves]

29. Jobs Report: U.S. Adds 288,000 Jobs; Unemployment Rate Drops to 6.3%

Jobs Report: U.S. Adds 288,000 Jobs; Unemployment Rate Drops to 6.3%

Economy

Jobs Report: U.S. Adds 288,000 Jobs; Unemployment Rate Drops to 6.3%

Jobless Rate Hits Lowest Level Since September 2008

By Josh Mitchell

Updated May 2, 2014 10:17 a.m. ET

WASHINGTON—Americans gained jobs at the fastest pace in more than two years last month and the jobless rate plunged, a sign the economy has rebounded from a winter rut.

[Botany]

30. You have to wonder where we be if Congress had worked for the good of the American People ....

.... instead of trying to sandbag the economy on purpose?

[RBInMaine]

31. Again, this is NOT 2010, and this good economic news will most likely continue.

[Beacool]

32. That's fantastic news, but we are not out of the woods yet.

“The payroll numbers suggest that the economy is recovering from a weather-induced slowdown,” said Ethan Harris, co-head of global economics at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. But, he said, “we still have not reached the point where workers have negotiating power.”

Even a sharp drop in the nation’s unemployment rate, to 6.3 percent from March’s 6.7 percent, provided little cause for celebration, since it was primarily because of a large decline in the number of people participating in the labor force rather than an increase in the number of Americans telling government survey workers that they had found a new job.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/05/03/business/economy/april-jobs-data-released-by-labor-department.html?hp&_r=0