Many Governor’s Races Remain Close, and Democrats Make Gains

[riversedge]

Source: nytimes



Many Governor’s Races Remain Close, and Democrats Make Gains

OCT. 10, 2014


Nate Cohn


Illinois's governor, Pat Quinn, at a campaign event at the University of Illinois-Chicago on Tuesday. He's in a tight race with his Republican challenger, Bruce Rauner. Credit Scott Olson/Getty Images

A large number of governor’s contests remain close and competitive, according to the newest round of data from The New York Times/CBS News/YouGov online panel of more than 100,000 respondents.

There are 11 governor's races within five percentage points, and 16 races within 10 percentage points. The list of competitive states includes some unlikely candidates, like Kansas (a red state with a Republican incumbent) and Illinois (a blue state with a Democratic incumbent).

It appears the Democrats have made slight gains over the last month. They now lead in three states held by Republicans: Pennsylvania, Michigan and Maine. An independent candidate, Bill Walker, leads the Republican Sean Parnell in Alaska.

Democrats are competitive in several other Republican-held states. The race is tied in Wisconsin (the Democrat Mary Burke leads Scott Walker by 49 to 48 percent as a result of rounding)...................

Read more: Link to sourhttp://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/11/upshot/many-governors-races-remain-close-and-democrats-make-gains.html?_r=0&abt=0002&abg=0ce

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LOVE the Burke leading comment--even if rounded.

[muntrv]

1. GOTV.

[riversedge]

2. well, I will be canvassing tomorrow

again. Always nice and upbeat to tout a new positive poll even if virtually tired. last one in WI had her back a few points---first time since last summer. I am realistic. it is only one poll but it adds to my upbeat when knocking on doors.

[Iliyah]

3. Dems will keep the senate as well.

VOTE

[ColesCountyDem]

4. Pat Quinn's going to pull it off.

The last 3 statewide polls of likely voters-- Ramussen, the Chicago Tribune's and the Chicago Sun-Times'-- all show Quinn with a small, but growing lead. Quinn has gone from an average of 13 points down, after March's primary, to a 2-3 point lead.

2/3 of all Republicans voted for someone besides Rauner, and his "I'm not Pat Quinn" pseudo-popularity is wearing thin. What support Rauner enjoys, other than that among diehard GOP-ers, is a mile wide and two inches deep.

[Dawson Leery]

5. GOTV in Chicagoland will determine who wins.

[ColesCountyDem]

6. True, but Quinn is also polling better in the 'collar counties' than he did in 2010.

Rauner's negatives are soaring.