Black Vote Seen as Last Hope for Democrats to Hold Senate
Source: NY Times
WASHINGTON The confidential memo from a former pollster for President Obama contained a blunt warning for Democrats. Written this month with an eye toward Election Day, it predicted crushing Democratic losses across the country if the party did not do more to get black voters to the polls.
African-American surge voters came out in force in 2008 and 2012, but they are not well positioned to do so again in 2014, Cornell Belcher, the pollster, wrote in the memo, dated Oct. 1. In fact, over half arent even sure when the midterm elections are taking place.
Mr. Belchers assessment points to an urgent imperative for Democrats: To keep Republicans from taking control of the Senate, as many are predicting, they need black voters in at least four key states. Yet the one politician guaranteed to generate enthusiasm among African Americans is the same man many Democratic candidates want to avoid: Mr. Obama.
Now, Democrats are deploying other prominent black elected officials and other surrogates, buttressed by sophisticated voter targeting efforts, to stoke black turnout. At the White House, the president is waging an under-the-radar campaign, recording video advertisements, radio interviews and telephone calls specifically targeting his loyal African-American base.
Read more: http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/19/us/in-black-vote-democrats-see-lifeline-for-midterms.html?hpw&rref=politics&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&version=HpHedThumbWell&module=well-region®ion=bottom-well&WT.nav=bottom-well
Minorities and young voters just don't turn out during mid-term elections. This is why many Democrats have often tilted right during the mid-terms to cater to those folks who actually vote, the elderly and white males, which just further alienates minorities and young voters. Of course, this time around, Republicans have doubled down on voter suppression efforts, which should be reason enough to turn out and fight these efforts to disenfranchise the people.
Still, its a chicken and egg, sort of question. My take is that until we can manage to increase turnout, politicians will not be responsive to liberal priorities during mid-term elections. In other words, politicians spout rhetoric in order to appeal to those people who they think will turn out. More minorities are turning out during Presidential elections, which is why even Republicans are trying to pay lip service to immigration reform. However, the mid-terms still remain a huge demographic challenge.
Turbineguy
(37,312 posts)Last edited Mon Oct 20, 2014, 03:48 PM - Edit history (1)
the more democrats stay home the sooner the republicans will fuck the country but good and we can start over.
When the wingnuts stop getting their gubmint handouts they'll turn on the GOP pronto.
Edited for clarity.
Andy823
(11,495 posts)Because if republicans do gain control of the Senate that will pretty much stop any kind of progress in D.C. for for two years. It will prevent us from putting liberal judges in place if some pass on in the Supreme court. It will see more attempts to shutdown the government, cut programs that people need while giving more to the rich. It will be a total disaster, and it will take years longer to get things fixed that it would if republicans did NOT take over the Senate.
All the talk about it being a "good" thing is pure bullshit!
jwirr
(39,215 posts)are making of this country is not hurting the rich so they are not likely to back out any time soon.
IronLionZion
(45,410 posts)is something the tea party and many DUers have in common.
As if spending and revenue bills didn't originate in the GOP controlled house. Most Americans can't tell you what congress does exactly but they're sure everything is up to the president alone.
demwing
(16,916 posts)that's ridiculous...
IronLionZion
(45,410 posts)isn't it?
This is the biggest anti-Obama site.
demwing
(16,916 posts)It's ridiculoua to claim that "many" DUers are screwing the country, and it's ridiculous to claim that DU is one of the biggest anti-Obama sites.
MannyGoldstein
(34,589 posts)To the extent that the President or anyone else strays from those, it is reasonable to call it out.
IronLionZion
(45,410 posts)I promise you, he's not on the ballot. The house and senate are, and lots of local elections and important ballot initiatives. Doom and gloom defeatism is not the best way to punish the president.
wyldwolf
(43,867 posts)Turbineguy
(37,312 posts)I do not advocate destroying the U.S.
wyldwolf
(43,867 posts)"the more democrats stay home the sooner the republicans will fuck the country but good and we can start over."
bigdarryl
(13,190 posts)RBInMaine
(13,570 posts)ProudToBeBlueInRhody
(16,399 posts)Andy823
(11,495 posts)From the MSM on down to all the doom and gloom post here on DU. I feel sorry for the doom and gloom spreaders here since their life must really be terrible when all they can see is the negative around them. Some here never seem to post anything positive at all.
merrily
(45,251 posts)hope that their gloomy predictions become self-fulfilling prophesies.
I distinctly remember a 2012 poll showing Obama losing to a generic Republican and to every single individual in the Republican field. I am not sure if Herman "999" Cain was in that paticular poll, or Bachmann, but the other definitely were.
ProudToBeBlueInRhody
(16,399 posts)....and beat Romney, and we would still not regain the House but maintain the Senate.
That's where we are right now.
merrily
(45,251 posts)Or is your point that polls this close to election day are always right and therefore Democrats are destined to lose this election no matter what happens between now and election day? And, if that is your point, can posting it now possibly do Democrats any good whatever?
ProudToBeBlueInRhody
(16,399 posts)....are quite frankly, full of it. While there are a few companies here and there who should not be trusted, the aggregate of respected polling organizations is usually correct.
Are you going to honestly sit there and tell me that on election day 2008 or 2012, you weren't heartened by the fact that Nate Silver and Dr Wang said Obama was going to win, even though I'm sure you know conservatives who said "I know in my heart America will never vote for him/vote for him again/McCain/Romney is going to win"?
You can't have it both ways. The polls are either accurate or they are crap.
And they were accurate in 2010, weren't they?
GOTV, it's as simple as that. It's time to fight back against the mindless zombies who dominate the midterms. But also prepare yourself. We are going to be swarmed by them. The polls are simply telling you how apathetic our side is. They are calling these assholes who are either convinced Republicans are right, they don't give a shit that the Thugs stand on the brink of destroying this country once and for all, or that they don't need to vote but once every 4 years. Stop shooting the messenger and try to grasp what the hell they are telling you.
merrily
(45,251 posts)Full of crap is not realizing that you when you say a poll saying Dems will lose is correct, you do nothing but dampen the GOTV effort.
Full of crap is never having met me, yet imagining (a) that I saw a particular poll on election day 2008 and then also imagining how I reacted to it.
Full of crap is telling me I am full of crap and then asking me questions and expecting an answer.
ProudToBeBlueInRhody
(16,399 posts)Were you replying to threads saying Obama was leading in the polls saying the polls were full of crap?
Yes or no. Real simple.
MsLeopard
(1,265 posts)It's almost as if the NY Times wanted to crush the spirit of Democratic voters.
madokie
(51,076 posts)The election before that and the one before that and the one before that, it goes back a few cycles to be honest.
RepubliCONs have nothing to run on so they have to try to scare up the votes they need. Petty little bastids is what they are
bigworld
(1,807 posts)who might otherwise vote Democratic.
merrily
(45,251 posts)Liberal_Stalwart71
(20,450 posts)always do?
JustAnotherGen
(31,798 posts)I'm trying to see how the Democratic Party asks us for our votes lately . . . It doesn't seem to me like they do. They just assume/expect us to show up.
Liberal_Stalwart71
(20,450 posts)pstokely
(10,524 posts)nt
JustAnotherGen
(31,798 posts)I hopped on the Kovach and Booker web sites and I don't see where they are specifically targeting black voters. These are the two National politicians I've been engaged in GOTV efforts in 2014.
merrily
(45,251 posts)When I was in about 6th grade, my history teacher told us that, back in the day--she didn't say how far back--employers used to tell their employees the day before election day, "If So and So does not win Tuesday, don't bother showing up to work Wednesday." Not exactly vote suppression, but definitely an attempt to suppress the freedom to vote as one chooses.
I am going out on a limb and guess candidate So and So in the above quote was not the Democrat.
I have been saying for months that Democrats--not just individuals acting on their own initiative, either, should have made an organized effort to make sure every adult in each state knew what was required of him or her and let them know help in getting an ID or an absentee ballot or whatever was available to them if they needed it. Meanwhile, volunteers should have been filled in how to help.
There could even have been a fund to pay to get copies of birth and marriage records if necessary. I would gladly have donated to something like that, wouldn't you?
Even if a lawsuit was pending in that state, you had to figure, some judge might decide against you. Worst case, voters would have known the Party favors voting and is willing to help and they would have had an ID, even if they didn't need it to vote and it would have been a great "CBS cares" type PR for the Democratic Party.
But, now, it's mid October.
Sometimes, I wonder if Democrats try to lose.
Big_Mike
(509 posts)"I don't belong to an organized political party - - - I'm a Democrat." Will Rogers
merrily
(45,251 posts)But, I think the party is a lot more organized than that comment suggests.
iemitsu
(3,888 posts)will help get black voters to the polls either.
The real problem is that none of the candidates will represent the people who vote for them, they will represent those who paid for them to win office, and this is true whether one votes Democratic or Republican.
Both parties represent capitalists while most citizens are workers.
It is difficult to excite people about voting when that is the situation in which they can cast a vote.
RBInMaine
(13,570 posts)bravenak
(34,648 posts)We don't look around and say to ourselves, 'Oh, well at least it's not hapoening to me!" It is happening in hundreds of towns around America. And where are the democratic leaders on this issue? Why do they choose to ignore our plight? Why should we vote for a party that doesn't even care enough about our lives to say something?
DeSwiss
(27,137 posts)RBInMaine
(13,570 posts)Andy823
(11,495 posts)That both parties are the same is pure bullshit. If republicans were in charge now where would be be today? Deeper and deeper in a huge pile of crap trying to dig our way out while the republicans destroy what is left of this country.
bobclark86
(1,415 posts)TomCADem
(17,387 posts)...might have something to do with the lack of action. How many times has the House voted to repeal the ACA?
bobclark86
(1,415 posts)We held both houses and the presidency for two years. The leadership wasted that time on what, a Heritage Foundation-written health care law? Raising Social Security withholding without raising the maximum rich people can make before not having to pay in? A stimulus touted to fix our infrastructure that most of the money didn't go to infrastructure?
TomCADem
(17,387 posts)...Do you want to compare two years with Democrats running Congress with the 4 years since? The stimulus helped reversed severe falling unemployment. It should have been bigger. but again, without it where would we be.
As for ACA being a failure, well, if you want to push for repeal, I guess we just don't really agree, but I know many others who oppose the ACA and the Stimulus and most of them are Republicans.
Tarheel_Dem
(31,228 posts)One of the standard Republican talking points is that the Democrats had a filibuster-proof, super majority for two years between 2008 and 2010. This talking point is usually trotted out when liberals complain that the Republicans filibustered virtually every piece of legislation proposed by Obama or the Democrats during Obamas presidency. The implication is that Democrats had ample opportunity to pass legislation and that the reason they didnt pass more legislation doesnt have anything to do with the Republicans.
It is also used to counter any argument that Republican legislation, (passed during the six years of total Republican control,) has anything to do with todays problems. They claim that the Democrats had a super majority for two years and passed all kinds of legislation, (over Republican objection and filibuster,) that completely undid all Republican policies and legislation, and this absolves them from todays problems.
The Truth is that the Democrats only had a filibuster-proof majority for 60 working days during that period, insufficient time to undo even a small portion of the legislation passed during six years of Republican control. Here are the details:
2. BIG GAIN IN 2008, BUT STILL NO SUPER MAJORITY. Coming out the 2008 election, the Democrats made big gains, but they didnt immediately get a Super Majority. The Minnesota Senate race required a recount and was not undecided for more than six months. During that time, Norm Coleman was still sitting in the Senate and the Balance 59-41, still not a Super Majority.
3. KENNEDY GRAVELY ILL. Teddy Kennedy cast his last vote in April and left Washington for good around the first of May. Technically he could come back to Washington vote on a pressing issue, but in actual fact, he never returned, even to vote on the Sotomayor confirmation. That left the balance in the Senate 58-41, two votes away from a super majority.
More....
http://factleft.com/2012/01/31/the-myth-of-democratic-super-majority/
bobclark86
(1,415 posts)You mean there weren't two moderate Republicans anywhere to be seen?
And I'm not talking about a filibuster-proof supermajority. I'm talking about getting ANYTHING progressive done. Hell, not even an attempt at compromise to get something done.
Tarheel_Dem
(31,228 posts)Unless you've been under a rock for the past 7 years, you know what our Congress looks like, or you're playing ignorant. What were these "progressive" issues we were supposed to compromise on? Not all Democrats are liberal, and unless you get out there and draft a whole nation of Bernie Sanders' to run for office & WIN, you'll never get your pony.
No attempt at "compromise"? Boy, you've got the talking points, coming out of your ears.
ProudToBeBlueInRhody
(16,399 posts)You've done your part for the day
Are you gonna have a "big reveal" election night?
heaven05
(18,124 posts)is the last hope for a sane america. Period. If the vote doesn't turn out, a generation of political insanity is in the offing. Teanuts, racists, libertarians and just your plain congressional RW whackjob and office holder will be running the ship of state, aground. And like the Titanic, very few of US will survive.
RBInMaine
(13,570 posts)ENOUGH of defending this inexcusable apathy. GET THE HELL OUT AND VOTE ! NO EXCUSES !
merrily
(45,251 posts)spend so much time posting about politics.
Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)They truly are the base of the party - voting for Democrats in higher percentages than any demographic, whether economic, religious or cultural.
If it weren't for black voters, the Democratic Party would be a dead party.
RBInMaine
(13,570 posts)Yes, they are the biggest racial demographic proportionally, but their voting rates vary too much between presidential and mid term elections, along with other minorities, women, young voters, etc. This has got to CHANGE once and for all.
Next, they are 13% of the vote. The party would be dented but not "dead" without them.
I do applaud the group for being overwhelmingly democratic, and we all should. Now we need to work on voting consistency.
bigworld
(1,807 posts)not just black, not just women, not just the poor, not just the young. We really do need to broaden the base... a 50-state strategy, but among every voting bloc. Have visible outreach to the elderly, to the NASCAR crowd, to suburbanites, and yeah, to white middle class guys.
JustAnotherGen
(31,798 posts)Coming soon to a black American near you . . . a complete total reversal of our basic right to vote.
No one better blame black Democrats if we don't pull N.C. and T.X. At the end of the day - the SCOTUS deliberately and maliciously turned all of those elections in those two states over to their beloved little Republican Party.
BTW - we were talking about this months ago in the AA Group. Kind of hard to vote consistently when the fix is in on black folks in America.
We've seen if for awhile now - welcome to the party. Glad someone else sees it too - now that it's too late.
Sunlei
(22,651 posts)The last day to register to vote in the November 4 elections was October 6. The previous highest number of registrations on record was 13,646,226 set in November 2012 before the presidential election.
Vote everybody! check your ID*
Registered voters will need to present one of the following approved forms of photo ID when voting in person:
Texas Driver License issued by the Texas Department of Public Safety (DPS)
Texas Personal Identification Card issued by DPS
Texas Concealed Handgun License issued by DPS
United States Military Identification card containing the persons photograph
United States Citizenship Certificate containing the persons photograph
United States Passport issued by the U.S. government
Election Identification Certificate issued free by DPS
The photo ID must be current or expired no more than *60 days, with the exception of the U.S. citizenship certificate.
Iliyah
(25,111 posts)I guess no one cares if people show their NRA id because gopers consider they have a corner on that market (many Dems have them too). The name must be exactly the same on the voter registrar along with date of birth because believe me they will only check ids in the Dem areas. Be prepared and also be prepared for long lines.
The corporate media will spew doom and gloom for the Democratic Party for any and all elections from now on unless Americans can take back the media. To do that, Americans must take back our political system, i.e. 1) get rid of Citizen United, etc. 2) establishment for further democracy legislations/Judgeships and the United States Supreme Court 3) same with State and local, et al.
jtuck004
(15,882 posts)for this very group, and that's often listed as a "Democratic" accomplishment. "Look what we've done".
That reduced government employment directly impacts entire black families and communities, because that WAS one of the few places they could get a better job with slightly less discrimination.
With that gone, they can't afford bus fare to get to the damn polling site.
That would be enough to pull "Democrats" strategists to the left if they cared more about working people than bankers.
From above: "This is why many Democrats have often tilted right" < Or maybe just greed, since years ago they found it was easier to get large money from financiers than people on food stamps, and then the financiers found that they could get their way by controlling the money.
kelliekat44
(7,759 posts)Nevermind those who on the campaign trail who have run away from the President and his very successful record. From the beginning, once Obama was elected, except for the young black, white, and Hispanic voters, the Dem establishment began standing away from the President when the going got tough. Never saw a real champion for the Dem agenda on any of the talk shows except for Biden. As one can see from Hillary, Panetta, and their like it's damning with faint praise and hoping no one notices. The folks who should have been talking about the actions that were successful gave about a week's worth of faint praise and then walked away with the mantra of "he could have done more." Had bin Laden been tracked down and killed under the Bush administration the praise never would have ended and Bush would have been heroized until now. The truth is this President has never enjoyed the support he deserved from the pols at the upper levels of his party and he never will. A major miracle that he has been able to achieve what he has so far with the spit in his face and the knives in his back. Yes, even here on DU.
Liberal_Stalwart71
(20,450 posts)We're used to it.
Behind the Aegis
(53,938 posts)There's always the Jews. We usually get the blame too.
Doesn't it seem that some of this "they're the same party" crap and "why bother voting" bullshit has a whiff of (straight, able-bodied, Christian, male, well-off) white privilege to it? While none of us seem to prosper during a Republican administration, it seems the minorities are always the hardest hit, women included.
kelliekat44
(7,759 posts)bravenak
(34,648 posts)And for those saying that the problems in Ferguson are not wide spread, you are wrong. It effects all of us in various ways and we needed support from the party on this issue. The party needs our votes, we need our lives in order to vote. And our freedom.
jwirr
(39,215 posts)there are no unimportant votes. We need to stand together.
otohara
(24,135 posts)I went to a small rally to see Sen. Warren and it was all us old folks.
The cannabis kids are not interested even though one candidate for Governor has said he'd try to repeal the legalization of marijuana law passed in 2012. Pretty sure most of them are unaware of his threat to undo this law.
ancianita
(36,016 posts)LovingA2andMI
(7,006 posts)Especially the replies. However the some of the REAL REASONS African-Americans voters might stay home is the following:
-The Unemployment rate has not REALLY improved for African-Americans compared to other ethnic groups.
-The value of a Young Black Male with excess melanin in his skin on nearly any street in America when comforted by an security guard, mall cop, law enforcement officer or other type of "Authorities" with a gun --- is less than 20% --- regardless of if they have a gun back.
-America is a racist nation. Period.
-The repeated complete and utter continued disrespect of the half-African American second-term President in the White House.
-The devil you know syndrome. African-Americans know Republicans are Racist. African-American know many Democrats are racist too and do an awful job of hiding it --- even if they "think" they are fooling others.
And more but these are enough reasons, for now....
JustAnotherGen
(31,798 posts)That's another good point someone made upthread.
I know in rural parts of NJ we need as many people volunteering to get the elderly, disabled, and last minute lost my ride folks to the polls.
A simple thing for any DUer to do - if you can afford the time off from work and have a working car - volunteer to take people to the polls.
It helped in Eastern PA in 2008 - not my state. But I volunteered over the border to make sure we pulled PA solid.
DonCoquixote
(13,616 posts)about voter fraud.
And for Hillary to have kicked sand in the face of Obama.
whereisjustice
(2,941 posts)and supports sending more US jobs to Asia via TPP and other crippling trade agreements.
Go to the democrats.org website and see what kind of support DNC is giving Ferguson protestors? ZERO. What will you find under "civil rights"? Lilly Ledbetter. Don't think this police brutality and abuse shit happens all over the country? You are wrong. DNC isn't exactly channeling MLK here.
War, Wall Street crooks, injustice, racism, these are all issues that matter to young people.
Don't come here and bitch about a lack of interest when the national organization doesn't have a compelling vision for how they are going improve people's lives. And what the fuck happened to OFA? Damn shame and a waste.
And for christ's sake - Democratic candidates are RUNNING away from ACA! Un-fucking believable!
Don't like what's happening? Bitch at DNC. Until you join those of us demanding representation/recognition of these critical issues, like what is happening in Ferguson, things will just get worse for the young, for the non-rich, for minorities, for everyone except the 1%.
archaic56
(53 posts)when your Senator harps on and on about the middle class and never even bothers to court any voters but the middle class, what the heck do you expect? When poor people who want to volunteer are turned down or ignored, what do you expect? When the disabled, the poor , the elderly and many others are ignored , what do you expect. The problem with pollsters is the problem with the entire party .. the DEmocrats patronize the poor while the REthgs want us dead. Karma sure is a a B****>I will vote DEmocrat just because any other vote is certain death. However, I could care less.. I trust the President, the poor guy was set up to fail and billions spent to trash him. Who benefits from trashing him?.. the KOCH Brothers.I feel sorry for him. I would not ' work in that nest of snakes in DC if you paid me. Arrogant self absorbed game playing bulls**** artists all out for themselves. Prayers for our president the other DEmocrats especially Hagan can kiss my ****
When human beings stop being so gullible they start using their brains instead of watching every darn news story as if it's golden, then and only then will this country change.The only revolution we need is one of the heart and mind towards human decency and kindness. The rest is all hyperbole and manipulation.
Sad such a great company was brought down by media that wouldn't know truth is it bit them. EDward R MUrrow rolls over in his grave
Maedhros
(10,007 posts)The Middle Class in America has nearly vanished, yet that's the only demographic to which Democratic candidates speak. If candidates would speak to Working Class America, they might be surprised at the support they would find.
pstokely
(10,524 posts)nt
blkmusclmachine
(16,149 posts)stay home.
And I'm pretty sure that's just the way Third Way wants it, with the GOP fully in the driver's seat.
yurbud
(39,405 posts)The Republican party would already be dead.
Instead, Democrats are auditioning to take GOP's place as most trusted water boys for the rich.
Orsino
(37,428 posts)Democratic principles, if followed consistently, could build a winning platform. Please don't just pander to Wall Street and pray that black people will bail you out.