Heavy shelling shakes Ukraine's main city in east

[bemildred]

Source: AP

DONETSK, Ukraine (AP) -- The heaviest shelling in recent weeks has shaken the main city in Ukraine's rebel-held east, heightening worry about the renewal of full-scale conflict despite a cease-fire signed two months ago between Ukraine and Russia-backed separatists.

Artillery explosions roared throughout the early hours of Sunday in Donetsk, quietening only after sunrise. A city council statement said four residential buildings were destroyed, but it didn't give information on casualties.

The cease-fire called on Sept. 5 has been violated almost daily. Some of the heaviest fighting focuses on Donetsk's airport.

On Saturday, Associated Press reporters saw scores of military vehicles moving near Donetsk and farther to the east. Many of the unmarked vehicles were towing artillery. Ukrainian officials say rebel forces have received n

Read more: http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/E/EU_UKRAINE?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2014-11-09-07-34-02

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I see reports of combat in Luhansk, too.

[uhnope]

1. Putin will never be satisfied until his "Motherland" dreams of "New Russia"

are realized by taking over and spreading the Russian dictatorship to any place with Russian speaking population.

[newthinking]

2. "Putin" is not doing the shelling. The "Party of War" won the election in Ukraine. War is inevitable

Yatsuneks "People's Front" Party, a new alliance created amongst neo-nazi members and "commanders" and other extreme groups, literally calling themselves "Party of War" faction, managed to pull together their influence and win the most votes in the Ukraine election.

This occurred because they destroyed the previous majority parties through threats, violence, and persecution (and outlawing one). There is absolutely no surprise here.

What is missing is the reporting does not include what Kiev is doing, because Kiev has their media under heavy control and the west only reports what is in Kiev media.

Of course, this has been a proxy war up until now, but chances are Russia will indeed eventually feel there is little benefit to continue playing this game and will step in directly.

Then all the cold warriors here will shout in outrage "see, we told you". Self fullfilling.

Enjoy the show that the west is making, because it could be our last. This is very dangerous territory.

[Igel]

3. The rebels are yet again storming the Donetsk airport.

This usually means shelling for a while, then attacks with armor and manpower. If that fails, they've usually stopped.

This time they're just repeating the cycle.

Some of the shelling in Donetsk is from attempts to take out the rebel artillery positions or hit tanks and APCs before they get to airport terminal buildings.

Some of the shelling in Donetsk is from artillery shells falling short of their target. This works both ways--rebel shells strike rebel territory because they fall short; government shells hit civilian areas because they fall short.

Ukrainian sources report something like 26 locations that rebels attacked or shelled Ukr forces overnight. Private civilian infrastructure destroyed, civilians killed, public infrastructure destroyed.

[amandabeech]

4. Russia may make an attempt to move west along the northern edge of the Sea of Azov

as far west as the isthmus that connects Crimea with mainland Europe. It is my understanding that supplying Crimea by sea during the winter months may be impossible due to ice.

The fighting in Donetsk and Luhansk does not necessarily suggest a move to secure the land bridges to Crimea, however. Fighting to the east of Mariupol would, however.

[bemildred]

5. They are "adjusting" the cease-fire line. nt

[amandabeech]

6. The question is how far the cease fire lines will be "adjusted."

Will they be "adjusted" to link up with Transdniester?

Or will they be adjusted to embrace the Russian ethnic minorities in Estonia and Latvia?

Putin seems to be pushing, pushing and pushing. He may do so until some group really gives him a shove back, or if his oligarchs go into open revolt.

Perhaps if he tries to push into NATO countries, NATO (led by the US, of course) will push back. However, I'm not as sure of that as I was a few months ago.

To paraphrase Angela Merkel, Putin is lost in his own world, and that may not be good for the reality-based community in Eastern Europe.

[bemildred]

7. Neither side appears willing to give up yet, so I expect the war will go on. nt

[amandabeech]

8. I suppose you're right.

I just hope that no one does anything totally stupid.

[bemildred]

9. Too late for that. nt

[amandabeech]

10. My idea of stupid would be for Putin to attack a NATO country.

Do you think that might happen?

[bemildred]

11. Not a chance.

That would be crazy. Putin is not crazy, or stupid. Russia is not even as well equipped as we to conduct aggressive war. He has demographic issues as it is. (Did you know all those Ukrainian refugees are going to Siberia? He's glad to get them. They help him hold onto Siberia.) This was all opportunistic, not the result of some cherished plan. He has declined Donetsk and Luhansk already. Now that Kiev is cutting off the money and setting up borders Putin may be forced to take them anyway, but the Abkazia route seems more likely.

Something happened around the time of the pariiamentary election, or shortly after. Up until then, things were quiet(er). Then everybody had a bad attitude all of a sudden. Poroshenko was sending troops to the East and the rebels were declaring the cease-fire over. They did get a gas deal. I suppose it could be that they both just decided they'd had enough of the phoney peace. These things take on a life of their own once they get going. Look at Syria. That started out as peaceful protests too.