In Alaska's Senate Race, Republican Sullivan Upsets Incumbent

[OneCrazyDiamond]

Source: NPR

Dan Sullivan, a Republican whose campaign was supported by both Mitt Romney and Sen. Ted Cruz, has beaten Democratic incumbent Sen. Mark Begich to win the race for U.S. Senate in Alaska, according to The Associated Press.

That expands the GOP's Senate majority to 53 seats.

The late call in Alaska's race is due to a close margin on Election Day and the time required to collect all the ballots from the state's far-flung polling places. The tally saw Sullivan's initial lead of more than 8,000 votes shrink some — but not enough to give Begich the win.

Read more: http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2014/11/12/363497675/in-alaska-s-senate-race-republican-sullivan-upsets-incumbent

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[secondwind]

1. Was not unexpected... Landrieu will probably not make it... There is still hope in 2016, though...

there will be 23 seats in the Senate that will be up for grabs, and seven of them were won by the POTUS twice.

[quadrature]

2. what 7 seats would that be?

I see 3 seats as flippable...
Illinois
Penn
Wis

need to flip 4 to get to 50
(assumes Mary Landrieu
goes on to lose)

[Yupster]

3. Maybe a few more

Arizona if McCain retires and North Carolina since Burr is far from unbeatable.

[davidpdx]

4. Landrieu is going to get thumped in the runoff

It's going to be 54-46 in the Senate, so we'll have to pick up 5 seats.

[davidpdx]

5. Pending any other vacancies or retirements here are the ones that will be up in 2016:

States with a Class 3 senator:

Alabama (Sessions-R)
Alaska (Murkowski-R)
Arizona (McCain-R)
Arkansas (Boozman-R)
California (Boxer-D)
Colorado (Bennett-D)
Connecticut (Richard Blumenthal-D)
Florida (Rubio-R)
Georgia (Isakson-R)
Hawaii (Schatz-D)
Idaho (Crapo-R)
Illinois (Kirk-R)
Indiana (Coats-R)
Iowa (Grassley-R)
Kansas (Moran-R)
Kentucky (Paul-R)
Louisiana (Diaper boy-R)
Maryland (Mikulski-D)
Missouri (Blunt-R)
Nevada (Reid-D)
New Hampshire (Ayotte-R)
New York (Schumer-R)
North Carolina (Burr-R)
North Dakota (Hoeven-R)
Ohio (Portman-R)
Oklahoma (Coburn-R)
Oregon (Wyden-D)
Pennsylvania (Toomey-R)
South Carolina (Scott-R)
South Dakota (Thune-R)
Utah (Lee-R)
Vermont (Leahy-D)
Washington (Murray-D)
Wisconsin (Johnson-R)

25 Republicans, 9 Democrats

The only two seats held by D's that I'd say are not solid are Colorado and Nevada (Colorado because one of the seats just flipped back and Nevada depends on whether Reid retires and who is in the bullpen to replace him).

On the other side I'd say Illinois, Iowa, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Ohio are possible. With the right campaign and candidate Florida, New Hampshire, and Kentucky (remember if Paul runs for president he can't run for re-election) we have an outside chance at.