How Many Deaths Did Volkswagen's Deception Cause in the U.S.?

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Last edited Tue Sep 29, 2015, 11:01 AM - Edit history (1)

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/29/upshot/how-many-deaths-did-volkswagens-deception-cause-in-us.html?partner=rss&emc=rss&_r=0

By Margot Sanger-Katz and John Schwartz

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A team of three researchers — Olivier Deschenes, Joseph S. Shapiro and Michael Greenstone — looked at the mortality rates and medical spending before and after the change. In a working paper, they found the reduced pollution was responsible for about five fewer deaths for every 100,000 people in the affected counties each year, as well as for a decrease in spending on prescription drugs. Most of the seemingly excess deaths in the higher pollution regions occurred among older Americans, though other health issues affected the young as well as the old.

The estimated Volkswagen pollution, about 46,000 tons since late 2008, is the equivalent of about 4 percent of the power plant pollution reduction they measured, meaning it could be expected to cause an estimated 106 deaths if it had similar effects.

We ran this projection by Mr. Greenstone, a professor of economics and director of the Energy Policy Institute at the University of Chicago, and a contributor to The Upshot. He said it seemed sensible as an estimate, but “the magnifying glass is really close.”

Noelle Eckley Selin, an associate professor of earth, atmospheric and planetary sciences at M.I.T., ran the numbers a slightly different way. She looked at the mortality effects of the particulate pollution produced by nitrogen oxides, using the numbers the Environmental Protection Agency uses to make health estimates. Her method brought the effects to about 40 additional deaths over the period, in addition to some other nonfatal health consequences. That probably undercounts the impact, though, since it does not consider the effects of direct nitrogen oxide pollution or smog.

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