Another Study Debunks Myth That Obamacare Stymies Job Market

[Bill USA]

http://mediamatters.org/research/2015/09/22/another-study-debunks-myth-that-obamacare-stymi/205723

New Data Confirm That Obamacare Did Not Destroy Jobs, Force Workers Into Part-Time Positions

Kaiser Family Foundation: Vast Majority Of Employers Did Not Reduce Hiring, Hours, Jobs In Response To Obamacare. According to a September 22 survey released by the Kaiser Family Foundation and the Health Research & Educational Trust, from January through June 2015, "relatively small percentages" of businesses required to provide insurance to full-time employees by the Affordable Care Act (ACA) responded to the health insurance mandates by switching to more part-time positions or deferring hiring decisions. In fact, more employers reported switching part-time workers to full-time status than reported scaling down full-time work:


The percentage of firms that offer health benefits to at least some of their employees (57%) and the percentage of workers covered at those firms (63%) are statistically unchanged from 2014. Relatively small percentages of employers with 50 or more full-time equivalent employees reported switching full-time employees to part time status (4%), changing part-time workers to full-time workers (10%), reducing the number of full-time employees they intended to hire (5%) or increasing waiting periods (2%) in response to the employer shared responsibility provision which took effect for some firms this year. (Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation, 9/22/15)

Kaiser Survey Consistent With Previous Findings That ACA Has "Had Virtually No Adverse Effect" On Employment. According to an August 2015 study by the Urban Institute and Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, the ACA has "had virtually no adverse effect on labor force participation, employment, or usual hours worked per week through 2014." In particular, the study found that total employment for working-age adults was 1.8 percentage points higher than expected, which is "inconsistent with predictions that the ACA would decrease employment":

Recent Evidence on the ACA and Employment: Has the ACA Been a Job Killer? - the Urban Institute
(all emphases my own)

We find that the ACA had virtually no adverse effect on labor force participation, employment, or usual hours worked per week through 2014. This conclusion is true for ACA policies overall and for the Medicaid expansions in particular, and it applies to the full sample of nonelderly persons and to the subgroup of nonelderly persons with a high school education or less who are more likely to be affected by the ACA.

For nonelderly adults with a high school education or less, we find that employment in 2014 is 1.8 percentage points higher than what would be expected given the rates of unemployment, demographic characteristics and pre-existing time trends. This finding is inconsistent with predictions that the ACA would decrease employment.

Also for nonelderly adults with a high school education or less, we find that part-time employment is higher than expected by 0.5 percentage points. This finding is consistent with some predictions that the ACA would increase part-time work, but may also reflect the continuing recovery in the labor market. This difference is sufficiently small, however, that we find no evidence of a change in the number of hours worked in 2014 and thus no overall change in labor supply beyond what would be expected.

The ACA's Medicaid expansions had virtually no effect on labor market outcomes through the end of 2014. This finding is consistent with the best available previous evidence, which suggests any effects of Medicaid expansions on employment are likely to be small.
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