Russia's Low-Risk Gambit in Syria
By Leonid Bershidsky
U.S. Defense Secretary Ash Carter said Friday that four Russian cruise missiles fell in Iran rather than in Syria. To Carter, the errant munitions reflect Russia's "unprofessional behavior." To the Russians, they may be part of the reason they are in Syria in the first place.
Strategically, Russia's involvement in the Syrian war looks like a terrible idea, or at least a big gamble. "Doubling down" on President Bashar al-Assad, as Carter put it, could give the Syrian strongman some breathing space, but not necessarily a lease on life. At the same time, Russia is alienating Turkey, where President Vladimir Putin until recently had a comfortable partner in President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. It also threatens to make enemies in the Sunni Arab world just when relations with Saudi Arabia seemed to be improving.
What happens if the land offensive started by Assad's forces Wednesday with help from Iranian troops and the Iran-backed Hezbollah militia fails to recapture lost territory? Does Russia have a specific goal or at least a time frame? What about an exit strategy?
These questions matter only if Russia is in this for the long haul. It has done nothing to suggest that it is, however. The Kremlin only appears to be setting short-term tactical goals for now because it's not heavily committed to an outcome in Syria. One of these objectives is to battle-test and show off new hardware.
Although the U.S. has been involved in several foreign wars since 1991, Russia has only fought on its own territory or within the former Soviet Union. These conflicts provided limited opportunities for a modern army to show what it can do: They consisted of either large-scale police operations or covert, hybrid warfare. Fighting small, agile bands of Chechen guerrillas in the mountains, helping separatist rebels surround Ukrainian units or running through overconfident but tiny Georgia in just four days is no general's dream. It also is no way to demonstrate new weaponry to potential foreign buyers or test it for Russia's own armed forces.
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http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-10-09/russia-s-low-risk-gambit-in-syria