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What Causes Overconfidence?
http://theness.com/neurologicablog/index.php/what-causes-overconfidence/"People are overconfident. That is a clear signal in psychological research that is reliably replicated. At this point it can be taken as a given. The brain is a complex machine, however, and any one factor such as confidence interacts in multiple and complex ways with many other mental factors.
Questions that have not been fully addressed include the possible causes and effects of overconfidence. Dunning and Kruger famously isolated one factor overconfidence (the difference between self-assessment and actual performance) increases as performance decreases. This effect (called the Dunning-Kruger effect) is offered as one explanation for what causes overconfidence the competence to assess ones own competence.
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The results confirmed what the researchers suspected, that the subjects exposed to the entity article had higher overconfidence than the incremental article, 68% vs 59%. This difference is not as big as when subjects self-sorted into these two groups but that makes sense. In the first experiment the researchers were looking at the subjects long held views of intelligence. What is remarkable is that in the second experiment these views were so easily manipulated by reading a single article (at least temporarily).
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Its interesting to think about all of the competing thoughts and emotions leading to the end result of behavior in people. With this series of studies we may have one more piece of this complex puzzle people are overconfident, especially if they think intelligence is fixed, partly because they focus on easy rather than challenging tasks.
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Interesting research, indeed.
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What Causes Overconfidence? (Original Post)
HuckleB
Mar 2016
OP
Overconfidence comes from not having friends who keep you grounded in reality.
oldandhappy
Mar 2016
#4
greymattermom
(5,751 posts)2. I wonder how this works in folks who inherited money
vs. folks who started poor and earned money.
HuckleB
(35,773 posts)3. I think you have yourself a study topic for your PhD thesis.
oldandhappy
(6,719 posts)4. Overconfidence comes from not having friends who keep you grounded in reality.
and ya, I am not a scientist!!
HuckleB
(35,773 posts)5. Perhaps, but perhaps not.