Brexit: How the United Kingdom voted on Thursday… and why

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How the United Kingdom voted on Thursday… and why
Lord Ashcroft
lordashcroftpolls.com

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1. Yep. nt

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2. All the different groups voting leave were remarkably similar to each other.

Same for the different groups voting to leave.

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3. Yes, it cuts right across party lines.

And there will be lots of arguments about what, exactly, unites the two groups, but the outlines of the dispute on the emotional level seems clear enough.

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4. ‘Brexit’ Revolt Casts a Shadow Over Hillary Clinton’s Cautious Path

For Hillary Clinton, Britain’s emotionally charged uprising against the European Union is the sort of populist victory over establishment politics that she fears in the coming presidential election.

Mrs. Clinton shares more with the defeated “Remain” campaign than a similar slogan — her “Stronger Together” echoing its “Stronger In.” Her fundamental argument, much akin to Prime Minister David Cameron’s against British withdrawal from the European Union, is that Americans should value stability and incremental change over the risks entailed in radical change and the possibility of chaos if Donald J. Trump wins the presidency.

She offers reasonableness instead of resentment, urging voters to see the big picture and promising to manage economic and immigration upheaval, just as Mr. Cameron did. She, too, is a pragmatic internationalist battling against nationalist anger, cautioning that the turmoil after the so-called Brexit vote underscores a need for “calm, steady, experienced leadership in the White House.”

But prudence is cold comfort to people fed up with more-of-the-same.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/26/us/politics/brexit-revolt-casts-a-shadow-over-hillary-clintons-caution.html?_r=0

[AllTooEasy]

5. So why were the English and Welsh fed up, but...

...not the Irish, Scots, Londoners, and citizens of Gilbraltar? Are these later groups the oppressive elite?

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6. It's an "emotionally charged uprising", reason won't take you far.

What one would expect is that the objections would be highest where the elites have been most oppressive. Circular logic, but it does make sense. The people who are annoyed are people who feel betrayed.

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7. Immigration from the Middle East Clinton invaded is a big factor

in Brexit and all of the anti-immigrant feeling in Europe.

Against a backdrop of being reminded with increasing loudness and deprivation that economic security and public services are "no longer for thee", voters did revolt.

In Iraq, Libya and Syria, Clinton helped create the conditions for this backlash. And its worth noting that she gets very angry on the subject of many ME countries.... she is playing a level-headed part for this campaign, but she is a pro-invasion hothead underneath.

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8. Immigration has to be managed within the carrying capacity of the host country. There are limits.

One can argue about where those limits are or should be, but they are going to be there somewhere.

It is all very well and not wrong to complain of bigotry, but the fact is governments have an obligation to manage these things well, not just call their own citizens bigots for complaining when they don't.