Gross Says U.S. Recession Odds May Be 30% to 50% Post-Brexit

[Purveyor]

The odds of a U.S. recession may be as high as 50 percent following last week’s vote in the U.K. to exit the European Union, according to Bill Gross, manager of the Janus Global Unconstrained Bond Fund.

The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds may fall to 1.25 percent from about 1.45 percent on Monday, Gross said during an appearance on Fox Business Network. The lower yield would still be attractive to investors compared with negative interest rates in Japan or Germany.

That spread could drive up the value of the dollar and increase the odds of a recession to the 30 percent to 50 percent range, according to Gross. While Britain represents a small part of the global economy, Friday’s vote will slow trade, immigration and growth around the world, which have driven economic expansion for years, he said.

“This is the end of globalization as we know it,” Gross said.
Gross said Friday on Bloomberg Television that U.S. mortgage-backed securities were a potential haven for investors, offering higher yields than Treasuries with similar credit risks.

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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-27/gross-says-u-s-recession-odds-may-be-30-to-50-post-brexit

[yeoman6987]

1. We were heading in that direction before the vote.

50 percent can be said for everything. I have a 50 percent chance of being hit by a car tomorrow. That's the worst percentage ever.

[Agschmid]

2. Well I'm certainly rooting against the car!

[yeoman6987]

10. Thanks! You are awesome.

[Purveyor]

3. Agree that we have been heading in that direction but now they have

a convenient scapegoat.

[MattP]

4. Fox Business News

[MattP]

5. Didn't gross bet against intrest rates and lose billions of investors money

And get shit canned at Pimco?

[1StrongBlackMan]

7. That's what I was thinking ...

and now he's pimping MBSs ... gee, what could go wrong, especially, when facing a 30-50% chance of recession?

[fasttense]

6. He's pushing mortgage backed securities.

Aren't those the securities that led to the 1st crash?

[orwell]

8. He is, in effect, saying nothing...

...It reminds me of the stock touters who would send out two "free" newsletters to two different groups of marks. One letter would say the market is going up. One would say it was going down.

After the market went one way or another they would send out a sales pitch to the group that got the newsletter that was "right" and offer 6 months of sage advice for the discounted fee of $$$$$$. After all, they were right in the last "prediction".

Rinse and repeat.

[TheFarseer]

9. Nice scare tactics

Let the corps do whatever they want. Work for less money. Stop asking for environmental standards or else there's going to be a recession.