The election might be crazy, but the polling numbers aren’t
Thu Nov 3, 2016 | 3:31pm EDT
By Chris Jackson and Alanna Spurlock
... momentary swings disappear when we instead look at monthly averages. The larger slices of time show that the rapid swings in voters’ views always return to a rough equilibrium. In fact, there has not been any real change in Trump’s and Clinton's relative position over the past three months. In July, Clinton had a 4 percentage point lead over Trump; in October, she still had a 4 percentage point lead. The most recent polls show that her lead may have narrowed since FBI director James Comey announced last Friday that the FBI is investigating more emails as part of a probe into Clinton’s use of a private server, but our experience suggests that this gap may widen again ...
http://static.reuters.com/resources/assets/?d=20161103&t=2&i=Reuters%20Monthly&w=&q=
http://static.reuters.com/resources/assets/?d=20161103&t=2&i=Pollster%20Monthly&w=&q=
http://static.reuters.com/resources/assets/?d=20161103&t=2&i=PID&w=&q=
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-ipsos-polls-commentary-idUSKBN12Y22O