Time to think the unthinkable about President Le Pen

[inanna]

Thursday 8 December 2016 19.08 GMT

Could President Marine Le Pen trigger article 50 without a parliamentary vote? Article 50 of the Lisbon treaty, that is, to take France out of the European Union, following Britain. Such is the question I find myself discussing in Paris with leading French experts, as we sit in the house where Jean Monnet once worked to lay the foundations of European unity. Provisional conclusion: since France, unlike Britain, is a presidential democracy, she could probably do it herself initially, but it would then require parliament to vote a revision of the French constitution. The mere fact that my French friends raise the question, even very hypothetically and three-quarters-jokingly, is a sign of the times. What was it Rousseau said? “To be sane in a world of madmen is in itself a kind of madness.”

It is, of course, unthinkable that the leader of the rightwing, populist, anti-immigration Front National should become president of the French republic in elections next May. Just as it was unthinkable that Britain should vote to leave the EU and unthinkable that the US would elect Donald Trump. I have come here partly to seek reassurance that the unthinkable will not happen again, this time at the very heart of Europe. I will take the Eurostar back to London very far from reassured.

To be sure, most of those I talk to are still confident that she will lose to François Fillon, the candidate of the centre-right. In the second round of the presidential election, voters of the centre-left will rally round, holding their noses to vote for Fillon – for the sake of the republic. After all, in 2002 they voted for Jacques Chirac to keep out Marine Le Pen’s father, the founder of the Front National, sighing “better the thief than the fascist”. Protest votes in European and local elections are one thing, but a presidential election is serious.

<snip>

In the TV interview, she has the Faragesque and Trumpian knack of seeming to speak the language of ordinary folk. She is standing for election “in the name of the people”, she says, whereas Fillon is standing “in the name of the European commission, in the name of the banks, in the name of Monsieur Schäuble”. She defends “the return of the nation … and democracy”, adding that “many countries have made this choice”. She mentions first the US, then Britain, then Italy voting “no” in the recent referendum. Oh yes, and, “I defend the rights of women”.

...

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/dec/08/think-unthinkable-president-marine-le-pen-trump-brexit

[BlueMTexpat]

1. One thing that will likely save the French from

Marine Le Pen or her ilk is that their President must be elected by an absolute majority. French Presidents cannot be elected by plurality.

If one candidate does not receive at least 51% of the vote in the first round, there is a run-off second round between the top two candidates. This is how her father lost against Chirac in 2002. The left held their noses and voted for Chirac. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_presidential_election,_2002

Right now, a recent poll indicates that Le Pen would be crushed in the second round by the center-right UMP candidate, Francois Fillon, much as Chirac crushed her father in 2002. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/french-elections-francois-fillon-marine-le-pen-second-round-emmanuel-macron-presidential-vote-poll-a7458446.html

The questions in this poll were asked after Hollande had bowed out, but before Socialist Prime Minister Manuel Valls said that he would stand for the election. So we'll see how things look in a couple weeks when his entry into the race has been factored in. I believe that The Guardian may be jumping to conclusions. But then, I never believed that a thrice-married, lying philanderer, who preaches hatred, racism, bigotry and xenophobia would be declared President=Elect of the US.

If US elections had to go to a popular run-off and one candidate had to receive 51%, DT would NOT be President-Elect today.

[Txbluedog]

2. I don't think Le Pen is going to get anywhere near Elysee

Like the previous poster noted, France requires it's President to win 51% of the vote and there is no way she has the support for a first round victory. In the second round, everyone anti-Le Pen will band together and vote for the other guy and she'll loose. Also, lets not forget that France has a sizable legal immigrant population

[ZoomBubba]

3. It will probably come down to whether there's another terrorist attack ...

... before the French election. It's easy for Americans to dismiss fears about terrorists sneaking in with refugees or being indoctrinated at radical mosques, but in France, it's a very real thing. After so much, even the most liberal person is going to say "will they accept our values/society?"

If we had terrorist attacks the frequency they did over the last year on the same scale, how many people here on DU would be re-evaluating the ability of Islam to co-exist here and how many others outside of here would suddenly become OK with Trump's anti-Islam policies?