The Innocent Explanation, Part #1 - by Josh Marshall

[DonViejo]

ByJOSH MARSHALLPublishedMARCH 3, 2017, 12:03 PM EDT

I've been writing about Donald Trump's mysterious connections to Russia connections to Russia for close to eight months. Over that time, I've occasionally heard from law enforcement or intelligence types who say, "You're on to something ... Keep going." To which I've wanted to reply, "Really?"

I say this half in jest but only half. I've always been highly skeptical of the more outlandish theories about Trump and Russia. Whether this is naïveté or the skepticism of experience I'm not sure. But whether we're investigators or reporters or just people trying to make sense of the world we live in, it is important that we try to find the simplest explanation that accounts for all the facts we know. Relatedly, we should look for explanations which require as few leaps of speculation or unattested and fantastical facts as possible. It's a life version of Occam's Razor.

The simplest explanation isn't necessarily the right one. But in the spirit of Occam's Razor, we should prefer it because it usually will be. To state the key point for clarity and emphasis, it is not the simplest explanation. It it is the simplest explanation which accounts for all the known facts. That distinction makes all the difference in the world.

With this prologue and with the above in mind, here is what I would call the innocent explanation of the Trump/Russia story. I don't think it is necessarily the true story. Or, to put it more precisely, I don't think it is necessarily the whole story. But I think it accounts for most of the what we know so far.

Here goes:

more
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/the-innocent-explanation

[longship]

1. Josh Marshall, as always, well thought out.

Happy to recommend a click-through.

And an R& for this thread.

[vlyons]

2. Totally agree with Marshall

It's all about the money. We need to see his tax returns.

[ymetca]

3. The only thing he's overlooking

Is the context of just how corrupt all those Wall Street banks are. It's why T-rump railed against them (and we bought it). He wanted to be a "player" with the "big boys", but all those Ivy League snobs saw him as a poser, a sub-par gutter grifter, dabbling in real estate. What a rube! Doesn't he know that they OWN all real estate? And commodities. And shipping. And manufacturing. And Government.

And, if you read Flash Boys, you can't help but marvel at how a few Russian ex-pat computer scientists were largely responsible for creating the whole high-speed money-skimming apparatus that now fuels the stock markets. And you thought Social Security was a Ponzi scheme? Hardy har har!

You can see it in T-rump's face. That look of "Fuck you, all you effete elitists, who thought you were better than me! I'm a manly man now, like Vladimir."

He sees this as the establishment out to get him for all his "success". And, well, he's correct, of course. The King of the Hill will always lose to the Cabal, with their legions of fools leading the attack. The Killing-of-the-King-To-Make-The-Crops-Grow is how this whole system works.

[lagomorph777]

4. It explains everything but the waves of lies.

As Marshall points out, the huge waves of lies indicate something huge is surfacing from underwater.