It's time to prepare for Iran's political collapse

[DonViejo]

By Ray Takeyh July 5 at 2:16 PM

<< Ray Takeyh is a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. >>

In recent congressional testimony, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson sensibly stressed that the United States should “work towards support of those elements inside of Iran that would lead to a peaceful transition of that government.” The commentariat was aghast, and the Islamic republic registered a formal protest note. Both parties seemed surprised that the United States has long assisted those seeking democratic change. During the Cold War, secretaries of state routinely assured those trapped behind the Iron Curtain that America supported their aspirations. Given that Iran is ruled by an aging Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the United States should be prepared for a transition of power there that may yet precipitate the collapse of the entire system.

In a region littered with failed states, Iran is often mischaracterized as an island of stability. The history of the Islamic republic, however, is a turbulent one, featuring a constant struggle between an authoritarian regime and restive population seeking democratic empowerment. When they first assumed power, the clerical oligarchs waged bloody street battles to repress other members of the revolutionary coalition who did not share their desire for a theocratic dictatorship. In the 1990s, they faced the rise of a reform movement that remains the most exhilarating attempt to harmonize religion and pluralism. The reformists spoke about reconsidering Khamenei’s absolutist pretensions and expanding civil society and critical media. The regime reacted with its usual mixture of terror and intimidation to eviscerate the movement. And then came the Green Revolt in summer 2009 that forever delegitimized the system and severed the bonds between state and society.

The one thing certain about Iran’s future is that another protest movement will rise at some point seeking to displace the regime.

Today, the Islamic republic lumbers on as the Soviet Union did during its last years. It professes an ideology that convinces no one. It commands security services that proved unreliable in the 2009 rebellion, causing the regime to deploy the Basij militias because many commanders of the Revolutionary Guards refused to shoot the protesters.

The seminaries in the shrine city of Qom appreciate the damage that the government of God has done to Islam as the mosques remain empty even during important religious commemorations. Young men don’t wish to join the clergy, and women don’t want to marry clerics. The system is engulfed by corruption, which is particularly problematic for a regime that bases its power on divine ordinance. And Iran just underwent a presidential election where the winner, Hassan Rouhani, promised freedoms he has no intention of delivering and further delegitimized the government by airing its dirty laundry on issues of craft and repression. Today, the Islamic republic will not be able to manage a succession to the post of the supreme leader as its factions are too divided and its public too disaffected.

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https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/global-opinions/wp/2017/07/05/its-time-to-prepare-for-irans-political-collapse

[no_hypocrisy]

1. Would Russia allow that to happen?

Political collapse of Iran would put its oil wells and reserves in the hands of American corporations.

[still_one]

2. Like we did when we overthrew Iran's democratically ellected prime minister

in 1953, and installed the shah of iran, or when we encouraged the 8 year war between Iran and Iraq which killed millions, or when we toppled the Saddam Hussein, and destabilized the entire region.

Let's let the people of Iran decide their own destiny for once

[redstateblues]

3. Been hearing about this for years

[Jake Stern]

4. Iran has apparently been on the brink of "political collapse" for decades

Every time there's some upheaval involving Iran the prognosticators come out and loudly proclaim the demise of the Mullahs.

- The Iran-Iraq War was going cause the Iranian people to become tired of fighting and overthrown Khomeini.

- The death of Khomeini was going to leave a power vacuum which was going to cause the collapse of the regime.

- The election of Mohamed Khatami as president and like minded reformists to the parliament was going to fuel anti-regime uprisings which were going to finally topple the government.

- The demonstrations in Iranian cities were going to once and for all drive out Ahmedinejad and lead to an "Iranian Spring".

Yet the regime is still going strong.

[StevieM]

5. I do think the regime will ultimately come down, but it may not be for 20 or 30 years.