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Fact Checker Analysis President Trump's crowd-size estimates: Increasingly unbelievable
David Fahrenthold RetweetedThis is worth your time. @rizzoTK methodically compared Trump's estimates of the crowd size at his rallies with the local news and police estimates. The differences are, shall we say, striking -->
Link to tweet
Fact Checker • Analysis
President Trump’s crowd-size estimates: Increasingly unbelievable
By Salvador Rizzo
Reporter for The Fact Checker
November 19 at 3:00 AM
“We went to Mississippi, we went to Missouri, we went to Nevada, we went to — every place, and we have crowds, we have tens of thousands of people outside of every arena. They have to start building larger arenas in this country, right? Something is happening.”
— President Trump, at a campaign rally in Lebanon, Ohio, Oct. 12, 2018
“The crowds at my Rallies are far bigger than they have ever been before, including the 2016 election. Never an empty seat in these large venues, many thousands of people watching screens outside. Enthusiasm & Spirit is through the roof. SOMETHING BIG IS HAPPENING - WATCH!”
— Trump, in a tweet, Oct. 15, 2018
“There have never been crowds like this, just so you understand, in the history of politics. You’ve never had crowds like this for midterm elections. There’s never been crowds like this.”
— Trump, at a campaign rally in Macon, Ga., Nov. 4, 2018
“I’m pretty good at estimating crowd sizes, as you have probably figured out.”
— Trump, in remarks at the White House, Oct. 23, 2018
Trump has been inflating the size of his crowds since his early days as a candidate. His presidency began with a surreal national debate over how many people attended his inauguration.
And this year, at midterm campaign rallies across the country, the president’s crowd-size boasts became a big bugaboo for fact-checkers. There’s no question Trump can draw supporters by the thousands, but his pumped-up numbers are so extravagant most of the time that they have little or no basis in fact.
....
The Pinocchio Test
These relentless, fantastical boasts show a deep schism between the president’s self-image and reality. ... Let’s leave out all the instances in which Trump said “thousands and thousands” and focus only on the rallies for which he gave hard numbers or indicated rough totals. At nine such rallies this year, the president’s estimates came to 352,600 people combined. Our review of official counts and news reports shows the number was much lower: 100,972.
That means Trump multiplied his crowd sizes by a factor of 3.5, at minimum. Of course, this doesn’t take into account all the times he made wild assertions about his crowd sizes without giving hard numbers. ... These claims deserve Four Pinocchios. Or, if you prefer to use Trump’s math, “thousands and thousands” of Pinocchios.
Four Pinocchios
....
Salvador Rizzo is a reporter for The Fact Checker. He previously covered New Jersey politics, courts, state finances and Gov. Chris Christie, with stints at the Star-Ledger, the Bergen Record and the Observer. Follow https://twitter.com/rizzoTK
President Trump’s crowd-size estimates: Increasingly unbelievable
By Salvador Rizzo
Reporter for The Fact Checker
November 19 at 3:00 AM
“We went to Mississippi, we went to Missouri, we went to Nevada, we went to — every place, and we have crowds, we have tens of thousands of people outside of every arena. They have to start building larger arenas in this country, right? Something is happening.”
— President Trump, at a campaign rally in Lebanon, Ohio, Oct. 12, 2018
“The crowds at my Rallies are far bigger than they have ever been before, including the 2016 election. Never an empty seat in these large venues, many thousands of people watching screens outside. Enthusiasm & Spirit is through the roof. SOMETHING BIG IS HAPPENING - WATCH!”
— Trump, in a tweet, Oct. 15, 2018
Link to tweet
“There have never been crowds like this, just so you understand, in the history of politics. You’ve never had crowds like this for midterm elections. There’s never been crowds like this.”
— Trump, at a campaign rally in Macon, Ga., Nov. 4, 2018
“I’m pretty good at estimating crowd sizes, as you have probably figured out.”
— Trump, in remarks at the White House, Oct. 23, 2018
Trump has been inflating the size of his crowds since his early days as a candidate. His presidency began with a surreal national debate over how many people attended his inauguration.
And this year, at midterm campaign rallies across the country, the president’s crowd-size boasts became a big bugaboo for fact-checkers. There’s no question Trump can draw supporters by the thousands, but his pumped-up numbers are so extravagant most of the time that they have little or no basis in fact.
....
The Pinocchio Test
These relentless, fantastical boasts show a deep schism between the president’s self-image and reality. ... Let’s leave out all the instances in which Trump said “thousands and thousands” and focus only on the rallies for which he gave hard numbers or indicated rough totals. At nine such rallies this year, the president’s estimates came to 352,600 people combined. Our review of official counts and news reports shows the number was much lower: 100,972.
That means Trump multiplied his crowd sizes by a factor of 3.5, at minimum. Of course, this doesn’t take into account all the times he made wild assertions about his crowd sizes without giving hard numbers. ... These claims deserve Four Pinocchios. Or, if you prefer to use Trump’s math, “thousands and thousands” of Pinocchios.
Four Pinocchios
....
Salvador Rizzo is a reporter for The Fact Checker. He previously covered New Jersey politics, courts, state finances and Gov. Chris Christie, with stints at the Star-Ledger, the Bergen Record and the Observer. Follow https://twitter.com/rizzoTK
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