by Robert Reich:This morning I phoned my friend, the former Republican member of Congress

[elleng]

ME: So, what are you hearing?

HE: Trump is in deep sh*t.

ME: Tell me more.

HE: When it looked like he was backing down on the wall, Rush and the crazies on Fox went ballistic. So he has to do the shutdown to keep the base happy. They’re his insurance policy. They stand between him and impeachment.

ME: Impeachment? No chance. Senate Republicans would never go along.

HE (laughing): Don’t be so sure. Corporate and Wall Street are up in arms. Trade war was bad enough. Now, you’ve got Mattis resigning in protest. Trump pulling out of Syria, giving Putin a huge win. This dumbass shutdown. The stock market in free-fall. The economy heading for recession.

ME: But the base loves him.

HE: Yeah, but the base doesn’t pay the bills.

ME: You mean …

HE: Follow the money, friend.

ME: The GOP’s backers have had enough?

HE: They wanted Pence all along.

ME: So …

HE: So they’ll wait until Mueller’s report, which will skewer Trump. Pelosi will wait, too. Then after the Mueller bombshell, she’ll get 20, 30, maybe even 40 Republicans to join in an impeachment resolution.

ME: And then?

HE: Senate Republicans hope that’ll be enough -- that Trump will pull a Nixon.

ME: So you think he’ll resign?

HE (laughing): No chance. He’s fu*king out of his mind. He’ll rile up his base into a fever. Rallies around the country. Tweet storms. Hannity. Oh, it’s gonna be ugly. He’ll convince himself he’ll survive.

ME: And then?

HE: That’s when Senate Republicans pull the trigger.

ME: Really? Two-thirds of the Senate?

HE: Do the math. 47 Dems will be on board, so you need 19 Republicans. I can name almost that many who are already there. Won’t be hard to find the votes.

ME: But it will take months. And the country will be put through a ringer.

HE: I know. That’s the worst part.

ME: I mean, we could have civil war.

HE: Hell, no. That’s what he wants, but no chance. His approvals will be in the cellar. America will be glad to get rid of him.

ME: I hope you're right.

HE: He’s a dangerous menace. He’ll be gone. And then he'll be indicted, and Pence will pardon him. But the state investigations may put him in the clinker. Good riddance.'


https://www.facebook.com/search/top/?q=robert%20reich&epa=SEARCH_BOX

[hlthe2b]

1. Suggest we all bookmark this thread and see where we are in a month, two, three

It is going to be a rough ride.

[Auggie]

16. Good idea

[Honeycombe8]

45. Great idea. Done. nt

[PatrickforO]

70. Yeah, I did.

Good idea.

[calimary]

74. Yep. A very good idea!

[Mme. Defarge]

2. God willing and

thank he creek don’t rise ...

[Baitball Blogger]

3. Only convinces me of one thing.

We need to take Pence down at the same time.

[Jarqui]

14. Republicans won't allow that if it means Dems get the White House ..

They'd prop up Trump before they'd let Pelosi take over.

[OnDoutside]

4. Hmmm wishful thinking I think. Pence might be in trouble too, and

That's going to give Republicans 18 months to regroup.

[Mr.Bill]

8. Yes, what's missing in the conversation in the OP

is what if Mueller implicates Pence. There's no way he's in the clear in all this. What's also missing is what if the AG shuts Mueller down? Frankly I think this alleged conversation is made up and over-simplified. We'll see.

[OnDoutside]

26. I agree with you, it's too convenient a story.

[JohnZSmith]

61. -

If he was just making up, out of thin
air, whatever is convenient, then he would say that Trump will be impeached tomorrow, and not mention all of the difficulties involved. That said, I think it's possible that his Republican friend is a composite of current insider opinions.

[elmac]

11. Pence will be worse as far as killing ACA, SS, all the safety nets

Pence could do a lot more damage to US, but not the wall street banksters.

[CreekDog]

15. Pence is nobody though

the party will be wrecked when/if Trump leaves, the only reason they'd get rid of Trump is that the calculation will be that the resignation/impeachment/exile though it will be a disaster for them, will be better than keeping him.

Pence doesn't have Trump's base, he doesn't excite anyone like Trump.

And he'll be critically weakened by the whole ordeal.

[OnDoutside]

28. Yes but it allows them time to change the narrative and try convince the Trumpers that

it was necessary.

[CreekDog]

33. do you want me to tell you that getting rid of Trump (legally) will solve all our problems?

do you want me to tell you that if it won't get rid of all our problems that it's not worth doing?

i'm not going to say either.

[OnDoutside]

36. Mind those splinters !!!

[stopwastingmymoney]

68. Great username

You know I can't dance, my feet are much too wide

[onit2day]

83. They already got what they wanted.Tax breaks,deregulation, a packed right wing court

[cab67]

64. Not with a Democratic controlled House.

[cab67]

66. I've said it before...

Formal portraits are commissioned for each former president. They end up in the National Portrait Gallery, though they're often loaned to the White House

I want to see Trump leave in such a state of disgrace that his portrait is never commissioned. Or if it is, it's never exhibited.

[elmac]

72. Plus all the airports, parks, bridges, roads, momuments that the GOP will have named after him.nt

[tblue37]

81. He has two portraits already that he needs to sell at a loss. nt

[sharedvalues]

63. I think it's obvious GOP wants Trump out

But the GOP is captured by their political lies. They’ve told the base to love Trump so they can use him, and it’s going to be harder to ditch him than they think.

[elmac]

71. The base will believe what ever Fox news tells them to believe

the G-overnment O-f P-utin will come out of it unscathed and all the blame will fall on us. tRumps base are mindless idiots, shrinking in size, really aren't that many to matter. They will just be recycled to follow Pence, same ol crap, different idiot.

[sharedvalues]

88. Yes. Rupert Murdoch is most important person in America

[C_U_L8R]

5. Good riddance.

Couldn't come soon enough.

[Enoki33]

6. Wish l could be convinced that the civil disturbances dotard has been

fermenting for the past year plus will be as mild as the friend seems to think. Never underestimate the power of a stupid crowd when led by a dangerous and persuasive demagogue. There are dangerous times ahead - primarily because of the mass media access the betrayers have.

[Johnyawl]

48. Any civil 'war' is going to be short lived.

The military was never all that much on his side, but he's now lost what support he had in the upper ranks. Taking orders from Erdogan and deserting the Kurds, who have been doing the heavy lifting in the fight against ISIS is going to kill him. The military has a lot of respect and affection for the Kurds, and trump has abandoned them to the genocidal Turks.

And the way Mattis resigned...

If the deplorable hit the barricades it's gonna be an amusing 20 minutes.

[Enoki33]

58. Thanks. Needed that.

[BigmanPigman]

7. Nicole Wallace said that Fux Ruse didn't even announce Mattis resigning until this AM!

His base is the most moronic 25% of the US population and they prefer to stay that way. Too bad the economy and healthcare don't crash directly on their willfully ignorant, racist heads and leave the rest of us alone. I hold them and the GOP 100% responsible for this crap and will rub it in their faces until I die.

[Pepsidog]

9. Me too.

[SammyWinstonJack]

10. In a perfect world that's exactly what should happen to his Deplorables.

[saidsimplesimon]

77. Your comments are always spot on. imo

The Republicans will board a fast train onto their next destructive objective. I don't expect to have time to enjoy our victory before we must do battle on a new front. We need to rotate R&R from combat (big grin).

[BigmanPigman]

91. I'm exhausted from all the non-stop chaos that the moron

and GOParty of Greed seem to thrive on. This border wall/slats BS is another classic distraction by this admin. For the midterms it was the non existent, dreaded "caravan". They will create anything to draw attention away from the investigations ...soooooooo predictable at this point. This is truly a "show", he would kill anyone on 5th Ave for the ratings and attention.

[BigmanPigman]

93. Thanks...I tend to be overly opinionated

and often clueless when I try to figure out what is going on from too much info 24/7 with this crazy POTUS and admin. It is overwhelming and my brain gets fried (politics, history and civics are my strengths). We all need to take periodic mental health breaks from this unending, chaotic nightmare.

[ffr]

12. Truth in the middle, right there

ME: But the base loves him.

HE: Yeah, but the base doesn’t pay the bills.

[pdsimdars]

13. Wow! Love it!

[hibbing]

17. Fantasyland imho t/t

[DeminPennswoods]

18. You never know.

The GOP was still behind Nixon until the very end after the most incriminating tapes came out.

[JohnZSmith]

60. -

Anyone can state an opinion without any basis. Trump does it all the time.

[Cosmocat]

80. YEP

No way all of this falls into place to have the House, then Senate, impeach him this year, and then it will be election year and the right wing/media will scream you can't hold impeachment hearings in an election year.

Also, while the shit storm seems unsustainable now - once Pelosi actually takes the gavel the Rs in congress and their media will fall into their comfort of railing on an evil liberal boogyman, and once there is a clear a dem nominee, they will VERY quickly fall into - he may be an unfathomable despicable human being, unimaginably corruped, and a treasonous scumbag, but Trump is INFINITELY better than the puppy beating Biden/Beto, whoever.

[Honeycombe8]

19. FB isn't reliable as a source for news or quotes.

This may be real, or it may not be. Hard to know if it's on FB. FB pages can be falsified, trolled, and such.

It's probably real, but just sayin'. If it's legit, it'll show up in a real news source site or channel or interview.

[elleng]

25. Robert Reich is highly reliable,

and he often uses fb to convey his thinking.

[Honeycombe8]

29. Oh, I know HE is.

But trolls can fake being other people, is what I think they can do, among other things.

But if people are familiar w/his FB page, and if there's been enuf time for Reich to have seen the post, it's legit. I'm just sayin'...FB is not the place I go to for news. There are so many more reliable sources...but for something long like this, I guess Reich would have to use his FB account.

Anyway, good info, he posted there. If that's true, I'm delighted the "HE" thinks that Republicans will step up to the plate and impeach, if Trump doesn't leave. Assuming Mueller gets the goods on him.

I hope that guy is right. I haven't heard anything this great in a long time. An indication that enough Republicans will join in ousting him, if the evidence against Trump is there.

[ms liberty]

50. RR is very active on his fb page. As in several times a week at least

He posts videos he makes about economics, politics, govt; he writes opinion pieces, comments and shares articles he reads. Sometimes he writes a para about an issue or an article and asks for comments and thoughts from his readers.

[hlthe2b]

38. It is real. Here is the link to the commentary on TruthDig

https://www.truthdig.com/articles/robert-reich-the-end-is-near-for-trump/

[Honeycombe8]

41. Thanks! nt

[Ccarmona]

20. Wall St Hates Uncertainty

I’ve been saying this to anyone who will listen, or read my Tweets. A 7% drop in the market this week, the worst week since 1931 is all the proof needed. The big money interests will pull the plug on Individual-1. The Repugs in Congress will be forced to follow by the donor class.

[Honeycombe8]

44. Wall Street is ready to accept almost any other President.

They got their tax cut bill and deregulation. Any other Republican who has a brain will do, from here on out. All s/he needs to do is stop the crazy sh*t, and Wall Street will be happy.

But I think a recession is coming, no matter what. Deregulation + huge tax cut bill for the wealthy that's not paid for and so will add over $1 Trillion to the debt = recession.

[C Moon]

21. I wonder if he voted for Trump. :)

[elleng]

27. Wonder elsewhere.

https://journalstar.com/opinion/columnists/robert-reich-trump-transactions-stoke-worry/article_8296e142-838f-5751-bcca-1d58b893367a.html

[C Moon]

30. I meant the retired Republican congressperson

[elleng]

35. Thanks for the clarification.

[C Moon]

56. :)

[ZeroSomeBrains]

22. Good god

And that's coming from someone who is agnostic. The Republican congressman is wrong though. It very well may cause a civil war. I just listened to an episode of why is this happening on the buildup to the civil war and it is pretty horrifying how violent the pre-war period was. Also how many conspiracy theories were around during that time. And how the south would do anything to defend the honor of the southern way.

These same types of Republicans doubted Drumpf the whole time during the nomination and during the general election. What we all don't understand is what hit me near the end of that podcast. That Drumpf is the anti-Lincoln. Lincoln was underestimated by the south and I fear we are underestimating Drumpf's strength with his knuckle-dragging base. I have noticed that almost everytime he kicks up a fight on immigration his poll numbers go up on fivethirtyeight. This is a dangerous time to be an American. We can never assume this will be so cut and dry and easy. Maybe I'm overreacting but people didn't think the civil war would happen during the 1850's and they never had bombs sent to the most prominent Republican officials in that time.

[TeamPooka]

37. It's always been a dangerous place if you're a woman or person of color. Welcome to the danger white

men!

[ZeroSomeBrains]

40. You're right

This has never been a country that has valued persons of color as much as their white counterparts. And women were still allowed to be beaten with something as long as it was the width of a thumb in this country. I still hope that this cancer to the world can be removed non-violently. I am just not as certain as I was before hearing about how the country actually was like in the run up to the civil war.

[Honeycombe8]

47. I think the "HE" was speaking of danger to the country & our democracy.

Not certain kinds of danger to individuals. We're already in that, what with mass shootings hitting a record number, murders of innocent people by the "nationalists" or neo-Nazis, etc.

But just a note: Jews have also faced danger here, although to a lesser degree, physically, than some other groups. There are many groups who faced danger here. Basically, anyone who wasn't a White Christian male, I think.

[TeamPooka]

57. Good point about Jewish people and any other non-Christian religion

For that matter

[Comatose Sphagetti]

87. Don't worry about it.

I know these people. I live among them.
Picture the Bundy bunch... Walmart camo, religious nuts, uber-patriotic, dumb as a bag of hair, more money in their weapons than in their kids' clothing and food. Many older and out of shape.
Yeah, small groups could make trouble, but they would have to be extremely organized to cause major disruption. They are not.

[pdsimdars]

23. A friend of mine asked me if this was real. I went to the link at the bottom and it isn't this post

It is just the link to his Facebook page. Anyone know where the actual link is to this actual article?

[hlthe2b]

39. There is a link for it that points to the commentary on Truthdig.com

https://www.truthdig.com/articles/robert-reich-the-end-is-near-for-trump/

[pdsimdars]

43. Thanks. Now that I see the article's actual name, it's easy to find it on his FB page

"The End is Near for Trump"

[gilligan]

24. All I can come up with.

Is Holy Shit. We are doomed.

[Honeycombe8]

49. I read that as good news. ??? nt

[TeamPooka]

31. Never count on Republicans to save the country

[mentalslavery]

32. None of the links on this post work....looks made up nt

[hlthe2b]

34. I see at least a dozen linked articles (using my sister's FB log in, as I am not registered)

Are you registered on FB?

Here is this piece on TruthDig.com
https://www.truthdig.com/articles/robert-reich-the-end-is-near-for-trump/

[mentalslavery]

51. nope...not on fb...your link works tho...nt

[pecosbob]

42. Looking like assymetical warfare was pretty effective when pointed at us

Everyone (mostly) in D.C. had their noses too deep in their food bowls to care...

Data collection and social media are what made most of it possible...we gave Putin all the data he needed, and that's not his endgame, but just another move in his long game. Both things may be a genie that can't be put back in the bottle.

[jg10003]

46. I'm a huge fan of Reich but I have always wondered if his repub friend is real or just

a literary device.

[Honeycombe8]

55. If there is such a friend, I'm guessing it's Joe Scarborough. ??? nt

[JTOL]

52. Welcome Madam President

If Mueller’s report proves beyond a reasonable doubt collusion, conspiracy, or cooperation with a hostile foreign state (Russia) thus defrauding the American people of a free and fair election, then President Trump obtained the office of the presidency thru illegal means. However, because our system of voting consists of a “ticket”; that is, a vote for Trump for President is also a vote for Pence as Vice President. Therefore, Pence, whether or not he was an active participant in the fraud, also attained his position as Vice President in an illegal manner; he would have benefited from the fraud. If Trump were to be impeached because of election fraud, it would seem that the “ticket” which includes Pence, also be removed as Vice President. The constitution provides for the situation where the President and Vice President could not hold their respective office; that duty would then fall to the speaker of the house.

[guillaumeb]

53. But the ultimate question is:

would Pence be any better, or does he only appear to be closer to normal?

[JohnZSmith]

59. Trump is even worse than Pence

Pence is a thoroughly-corrupt, constantly-lying hypocritical asshole of the first magnitude.

Yet Trump is easily far worse. Trump has all Pence's faults, plus he's delusional, mentally ill, unpredictable, personally depraved, monumentally incompetent and ignorant, superlatively arrogant, owned by Putin, etc. and has a vast base of brain-dead idiot cultists who believe every outrageous, obvious lie he spews.

Every time Trump and Pence have publicly disagreed, it was Trump who had the more insane and dangerous opinion.

In other words, Pence would be a terrible, short-term President, but Trump could be the last President.

[elleng]

76. I agree.

[guillaumeb]

82. Welcome to DU.

In my view, Pence would be the stealth horrible President with a veneer of normality. So the corporate media would pretend that all was well.

Trump is the open face of the racist GOP Party.

[peace frog]

54. Pence is as dirty as Trump

and Team Mueller have the goods on him. I agree that Trump will not resign but dig in like a tick on a hound dog, whip his base into a frenzy and convince himself he can cruise unimpeded right into re-election. But however and whenever the boot comes down, Pence will be caught up in it just as Tiny Hands will. The entire useless, odious crew will go away.

[sharedvalues]

62. PARTY BEFORE COUNTRY

Donors before country.
Billionaires before country.


This makes me so goddamn angry.

The analysis is pretty obvious: votes are there to impeach. Problem for GOP is that the rightwing media made the base love Trump, so GOP has to find a way to get our from under Trump without getting blamed by the base. That’s been pretty clear.

Where I disagree: he’s so f’ing sanguine about potential civil war. He thinks the GOP can control the base through Fox. He shouldn’t be so sure. And there is no guarantee Rupert Murdoch decides to go along.

But here is the worst:
REPUBLICANS ARE WILLING TO DESTROY THE COUNTRY TO PROTECT THEIR DONORS AGENDA.
It is infuriating. Screw those GOP assholes.

[Richard D]

65. If I was playing chess . . .

What I think/hope . .

If Mueller has enough criminal dirt on Pence, Mueller will offer him a plea bargain with a reduced sentence if he resigns. Any VP trip wants to nominate has to be approved by both houses of congress. That won't happen.

Then with all of the info that Mueller has on Trump given to the House, impeachment starts.

He'll be impeached and convicted or resign, and President Pelosi.

Could be that all of the people getting convicted now are also a bit of a show to scare Pence. Even mother can't protect him in prison.

That's how I"d play it.

[czarjak]

67. Illegitimate all...

Period.

[quakerboy]

69. And then we have president pence

And we get basically all the same terrible economic and antisocial policy, a hint more stability, and the MIC gets to live fatter and happier than ever.

Its a sad commentary on the USA that all the treason, racism, fraud, electoral fraud, and the rest of the trump crimes never had much of a chance of taking him down, but within days of going up against the war machine, impeachment suddenly looks like a very realistic outcome.

[Hotler]

73. "HE: They wanted Pence all along."

Do not take your eyes off of Pence, I see bad juju written all over him.

[dlk]

75. I Wonder What Reich's Friend Would Say if Pence is Indicted?

And interesting and possible scenario to consider.

[onetexan]

78. RR's friend's hunch is exqctly how i think the DOTUS'

Demise will play out. It will get uglier before it ends.

[elleng]

79. Yes, and I see it happening in this way,

thankfully. It's actually visible, imo.

Look at this:

Reliable Allies Refuse to Defend a President Content With Chaos.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/21/us/politics/donald-trump-syria-government-shutdown.html?

[Pacifist Patriot]

84. Too neat and tidy. I'll believe it when I see it.

[WhiteTara]

85. You think Mueller will spare Pence?

I don't. He has never been interviewed to my knowledge and that is rarely a good sign. But I'm sure the true researchers will be digging on his connection to Putin. You know it's there. Maybe oil and gas -- Indiana gas station deal. Just throwing that out there. But I know he's part of it. Flynn will have told all about him. He can't escape. He just can't escape.

[Kurt V.]

90. i do. Mueller is a country first guy. Pence may be spared just to get us to the next election

[SpankMe]

86. I don't buy it. Too good to be true. n/t

[pangaia]

89. But Pence is like the 'sleeper agent.'

While we are all celebrating he and the rest of the fake xtians, and fascists, will be sneakily taking the country down, instead of right out in the open.

SOMEHOW, Pence must be gotten rid of.. SO Nancy can be President.

[TJKatd]

92. Pence...

I do think Trump will eventually get nailed for something and leave office. It needs to happen by the end of 2019, else we need him to just ride it out and have the voters eject him in 2020. While we view Pence as not much better than Trump, we are not your average voter. We do not need him with incumbency. As milquetoast as he is, his demeanor and style will, I think, be attractive to the average voter. Now, that can be overcome with an attractive, compelling Democrat candidate. Not sure who that is, to be honest.

It will be quite the feat to impeach and convict a US President, much less a President and a VP.