Donald Trump will be impeached in 2019, says 'prediction professor'

[nitpicker]

https://www.dw.com/en/donald-trump-will-be-impeached-in-2019-says-prediction-professor/a-46890125

Donald Trump will be impeached in 2019, says 'prediction professor'

Scholar Allan Lichtman defied mainstream wisdom by forecasting early on that Donald Trump would win the 2016 presidential election. In an interview with DW, he now predicts that the president will be impeached next year.

Date 29.12.2018
Author Michael Knigge (Washington)

The US president's basic conduct and politics are unlikely to change in 2019, but the new Democrat-controlled House of Representatives, coupled with the Russia investigation led by special counsel Robert Mueller, will lead to the impeachment of Donald Trump, predicts Allan Lichtman. "I think it's more likely than not he will get impeached," the American University professor told DW.

After previously predicting 30 years of presidential elections correctly, Lichtman became a media phenomenon when he — against mainstream wisdom — predicted early on that Trump would win in 2016. Now Lichtman is convinced that as of 2019, and for the remainder of his term, Trump will be engaged in a fight to remain in office — a fight he well may lose.

That's because until now, Trump could rely on a Republican-controlled Congress to shield him from impeachment or removal from office proceedings — essentially a political trial process — which can be triggered by a single majority vote in the House of Representatives. That process has long been a hot topic among the president's opponents in the Democratic Party and, in the wake of the midterm elections that flipped the House, Democrats will hold a solid a majority in 2019.

As soon as the new Democratic-run House convenes on January 3 next year, impeaching Trump moves from theory to reality. And while top Democrats have so far routinely downplayed calls for impeachment by the so-called anti-Trump resistance movement and by lawmakers demanding a more aggressive stance against the president, the pressure to act could force the party's leaders to pursue it. "If Mueller comes up with some devastating findings, the Democratic base will demand impeachment," said Lichtman. "I think [Trump] is in grave peril from the Mueller probe."

He added that he believes that Mueller will issue more indictments and reveal even more damaging information linking people from Trump's inner circle to Russia, thus proving a conspiracy to rig the election and undermine democracy.
(snip)

Lichtman is not just convinced that Trump will be impeached. He also sees an increasing likelihood that Trump will actually be ousted from the presidency, which many other political experts still consider unlikely. If the House votes to impeach Trump, removing him from office requires a two-thirds majority vote in the Senate. Republicans still control that body by a 51-49 majority, meaning a substantial number of GOP lawmakers would have to vote to oust a president who is a member of their own party.

Such a scenario is less unrealistic than it sounds, said Lichtman, pointing to the steady drip of incriminating information from the Mueller probe and Trump's conduct in office that is beginning to take its toll on Republicans — a sentiment backed up by the recent midterm results. With presidential and Congressional elections in which Senate Republicans face a much less favorable electoral map than this year just around the corner in 2020, the GOP may be ready to cut Trump loose.
(snip)

[SunSeeker]

1. Hope so. nt

[MFM008]

2. This time

I hope hes right.

[no_hypocrisy]

3. Not convinced -- unless . . . . .

by NOT impeaching, Mitch McConnell loses his majority status. And I can't see that happening.

But, OTOH, the trade-off is that by being recalcitrant, Republicans lose more seats in the House, the Senate, and as governors.

[FreepFryer]

4. Mitch McConnell is not superhuman.

His coalition has been fused by Russian leverage, and he is not immune from prosecution.

[reACTIONary]

5. His election predictions are based...

.... on a simple set of metrics (eg, encombant candidate or not) that have been statistically validated. This prediction is completely differnt, snd isn't worth more than any other pundit's prognostications.