AP: GOP won more seats in 2018 than suggested by vote share

[eppur_se_muova]

By DAVID A. LIEBMarch 21, 2019

JEFFERSON CITY, Mo. (AP) — Democrats won more votes, regained control of the U.S. House and flipped hundreds of seats in state legislatures during the 2018 elections. It was, by most accounts, a good year for the party.

Yet it wasn’t as bad as it could have been for Republicans.

That’s because they may have benefited from a built-in advantage in some states, based on how political districts were drawn, that prevented deeper losses or helped them hold on to power, according to a mathematical analysis by The Associated Press.

The AP’s analysis indicates that Republicans won about 16 more U.S. House seats than would have been expected based on their average share of the vote in congressional districts across the country. In state House elections, Republicans’ structural advantage might have helped them hold on to as many as seven chambers that otherwise could have flipped to Democrats, according to the analysis.

The AP examined all U.S. House races and about 4,900 state House and Assembly seats up for election last year using a statistical method of calculating partisan advantage that is designed to flag cases of potential political gerrymandering. A similar analysis also showed a GOP advantage in the 2016 elections.
***
more: https://www.apnews.com/9fd72a4c1c5742aead977ee27815d776

[JayhawkSD]

1. Well, that's a two sided coin.

"That’s because they may have benefited from a built-in advantage in some states, based on how political districts were drawn, that prevented deeper losses or helped them hold on to power..."

There are plenty of districts drawn specifically to protect and guarantee seats for Democrats as well. I don't know which party has the most "protected" districts. I do know that in California Democrats are very pleased that the latest redistricting gave us control of the state legislature for the first time in a long time, and we are crowing about the permanence of that control because of the number of "safe" districts we now have.

I live in CA-53, have ever since Susan Davis was first elected to the House, and I have never once seen an election poster with her name on it. She does not need to campaign.

I would like to believe that AP was unbiased in its study that found the gerrymandering favored the GOP overall. While the study may be factual, I will never believe that AP is unbiased about anything.

And note that even AP says, "That’s because they may have benefited from a built-in advantage in some states..."

[lagomorph777]

2. "I don't know which party has the most "protected" districts."

This is a consistent pattern. GOP (especially since Project REDMAP) overwhelmingly has Gerrymandered more.

[JayhawkSD]

3. I'd like to see actual documentation of that.

From a reputable source. Not something like AP or MSNBC.

Note that the Democratic Party is very pleased with ourselves for having generated enough "safe" Democratic districts in California to assure us ongoing control of the state legislature. I do not say that as insult. I am a Democrat and have voted Democratic for many years.

[lagomorph777]

4. I assume by "reputable" you mean right-leaning. Some of these sources are:

I'm so tired of both-siderism. It's unjustifiable in this case.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/07/opinion/midterm-elections-2018-republican-gerrymandering.html

https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2018/11/08/how-gerrymandering-kept-democrats-winning-even-more-seats-tuesday/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.145210117838

http://election.princeton.edu/2012/12/30/gerrymanders-part-1-busting-the-both-sides-do-it-myth/

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/nov/08/democrats-republicans-senate-majority-minority-rule

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/11/13/republicans-trump-redistricting-house-2018-984947

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2018/11/09/midterm-election-results-republican-democrat-congress-house-redistricting-gerrymander/1893966002/

[JayhawkSD]

5. You did not notice I am a Democrat?

I specified "reputable." Every one of those are corporate owned and/or highly biased. Just because I do not "drink the koolaid" does not mean that I am "right wing" and will read and/or believe only what you identify as "right wing" sources. Some Democrats think for themselves rather than just echoing whatever the Democratic leadership tells them to say.

Are you telling me that California does not engage in gerrymandering? Are you telling me that California does not have more "safe" Democratic districts than neutral or Republican ones? Are you telling me that CA-53 is an open district where Susan Davis is in danger of losing every two years?

"I'm so tired of both-siderism." I'm fed up with claims that only the Republicans ever do bad things. I'm fed up with Democrats who claim that every loss is caused by Republican cheating.

[lagomorph777]

6. Have a nice day.