Trump's State-by-State Approval Ratings Should Scare the MAGA Out of Him.
'There has been a lot of discussion in political circles about Donald Trumps job-approval ratings, what they portend, and Trumps Electoral College strategy for 2020, which doesnt necessarily require a popular-vote plurality. But in the end, of course, the conjunction of the Electoral College with Trumps state-by-state popularity is where the deal will go down.
The online polling firm Civiqs has published a new set of state-by-state job-approval ratings for Trump as of August 11, and it shows how the presidents overall standing (a 43 percent approval rating nationally, which happens to match the current RealClearPolitics polling average) might translate into electorate votes. Its not a pretty picture for the president, to put it mildly.
Civiqs shows the presidents net approval ratios being underwater (i.e., negative) in 10 states he carried in 2016: Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Wisconsin. If that were to represent how the 2020 elections turn out, Trump would have a booming 119 electoral votes. And its not as though hes on a knifes edge between victory and defeat in all these Trump 2016 states where hes doing poorly: Hes underwater by 12 points in Pennsylvania, 11 in Michigan, and nine in Arizona, North Carolina, and Wisconsin. And theres virtually no indication that states that narrowly went for Clinton in 2016 are trending in Trumps direction: His approval ratios are minus 18 in Colorado, minus 15 in Minnesota, minus 12 in Nevada, and minus 27 in New Hampshire. These are, by the way, polls of registered voters, not just adults, so they should be a relatively sound reflection of the views of the electorate.
In case you just dont trust this particular pollster, the other publicly available survey of state-by-state presidential job approval is from Morning Consult, and its latest numbers (as of July) are pretty similar. They show Georgia and Texas as positive for Trump, and North Carolina as very close. But all the other battleground states are quite the reach for the incumbent.'>>>
http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/08/trumps-state-by-state-approval-ratings-should-scare-him.html?
KPN
(15,585 posts)He stole them. He and the KGOP will do it again if we are not hyper-vigilant.
TwilightZone
(25,342 posts)Disapproval doesn't equate to voting against him, unfortunately. We need to keep that in mind. His vote percentage totals in 2016 were significant higher than his approval ratings, including in the battleground states he narrowly won, and we need to be prepared for the same in 2020.
The trends are positive for us, but it's still all about a small handful of states, similar to what happened in 2016. Unless, of course, something somewhat unexpected happens, like the Dem candidate winning Texas. Then, it's likely a sign of a blowout.