The State of Afghanistan

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http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/14/opinion/making-sense-of-trends-in-afghanistan.html

By IAN LIVINGSTON and MICHAEL E. O’HANLON
Published: April 13, 2012

THE key trends of the war in Afghanistan can be summarized fairly simply. The hard part is figuring out what they collectively add up to. The muddled picture no doubt contributed to recent poll results showing that two-thirds of Americans oppose their country’s involvement in the conflict. Afghans themselves seem confused; according to a 2011 Asia Foundation poll, 73 percent of citizens support their national government (and even higher percentages their army and police), but only 46 percent believe the country is headed in the right direction.

Here is what we know: Afghans are wealthier, healthier and better educated than ever before. Unquestionably, Afghan security forces are bigger and better. Despite the occasional spectacular attack, Kabul is relatively safe, accounting for less than 1 percent of violent episodes nationwide, thanks largely to the efforts of these troops. The security situation in the more dangerous south is also much improved, after two years of efforts by foreign and Afghan forces. The north and west are at least no longer deteriorating and collectively account for less than 10 percent of violence nationwide.

But the east, near where insurgents in the Haqqani network have found sanctuary across the Pakistani border, remains highly troubled. There, insurgent violence against Afghan citizens and troops, as well as foreign soldiers, actually went up about 20 percent last year. NATO and Afghan forces will increasingly concentrate their efforts in the east this year and next.

In addition, after attacks by Afghan soldiers on NATO units, trust between the forces is lower than before. Meanwhile, government corruption remains high. Some anti-corruption measures are in place, but we cannot yet find any clear evidence that they are working systematically. The Afghan elections of 2014 threaten to intensify already growing ethnic tensions between the Pashtuns and the minority Tajiks, and between Uzbeks and Hazaras, and peace talks with the Taliban are halting.