How canceled events and self-quarantines save lives, in one chart

[swag]

https://www.vox.com/2020/3/10/21171481/coronavirus-us-cases-quarantine-cancellation?fbclid=IwAR0eRupo_GI4oKlS81w_zwIVCQAMwFoLi6sVFvQb4I0_x_HP7EnGBCmzbYQ

This is how we all help slow the spread of coronavirus.
By Eliza Barclay and Dylan Scott Mar 10, 2020, 9:50am EDT

The main uncertainty in the coronavirus outbreak in the United States now is how big it will get, and how fast. In the past few days, we’ve seen cases jump dramatically; as of March 10, there were more than 700 confirmed cases and at least 26 deaths. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s Nancy Messonnier told reporters Monday, “many people in the US will at some point, either this year or next, get exposed to this virus.”

According to infectious disease epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch at Harvard, it’s “plausible” that 20 to 60 percent of adults will be infected with Covid-19 disease. So far, 80 percent of cases globally have been mild, but if the case fatality rate is around 1 percent (which several experts say it may be), a scenario is possible of tens or hundreds of thousands of deaths in the US alone.

Yet the speed at which the outbreak plays out matters hugely for its consequences. What epidemiologists fear most is the health care system becoming overwhelmed by a sudden explosion of illness that requires more people to be hospitalized than it can handle. In that scenario, more people will die because there won’t be enough hospital beds or ventilators to keep them alive.

A disastrous inundation of hospitals can likely be averted with protective measures we’re now seeing more of — closing schools, canceling mass gatherings, working from home, self-quarantine, avoiding crowds — to keep the virus from spreading fast.

Epidemiologists call this strategy of preventing a huge spike in cases “flattening the curve,” and it looks like this:



. . . more at link

[Chainfire]

1. There was an NPR story

today, stressing the same issue. It makes perfect sense to me.

What is happening today is we have different jurisdictions, all over the nation making different decisions on how to address the crisis because we don't have (your preferred expletive) leadership in Washington.

[Dennis Donovan]

2. Kick and rec - "Flattening the curve" should be the primary goal, especially with lack of testing

It's going to be disruptive no matter what, but this sort of disruption will save lives.

[lagomorph777]

7. I'm working from home for a couple of weeks.

Partly because my industry's big international convention is in town and I want to avoid my colleagues like the plague. Oh wait, that didn't sound right...

Anyhow, I suspect many others will be doing the same, and it may shift attitudes about working from home. Nobody will miss commuting.

[samnsara]

3. this should be a reason every state goes for paper mail in ballots!

[SunSeeker]

4. K & R

[wiley]

5. If we knew what the curve was

We don't because this is premeditated murder by Trump and Pence. But the only thing we have now is social distancing for everyone, not just those most likely to be symptomatic. Young people, especially, need to stay inside and not spread asymptomatic but infectious virus to people with diabetes, heart conditions, their grandparents, people with cancer, asthmatics, etc.

[wiley]

6. Shout very loudly for testing! It's not being done.