The economy can't really come back until consumers feel safe

[Zorro]

Services led us into the recession. What’s going to lead us out?

The Great Shutdown, which aptly describes the motivating force behind the current recession, ushered in what is probably the first downturn in history to be led by the services sector of the economy.

That in itself, if not the unique nature of the recession — workers ordered to stay home, businesses told to cease operations — poses distinct challenges to the recovery, arguing for a long, drawn out slog to regain lost output.

With the goods sector of the economy, a recession causes inventories to pile up. Deferred sales aren’t lost; just delayed.

With services, there is no backlog to sell at a later date. Vacations not taken, concerts and sporting events cancelled, restaurant meals forsaken: that business is gone for good.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/services-led-us-into-the-recession-whats-going-to-lead-us-out-2020-05-07

[Historic NY]

1. Went to two stores drove in an out too many people.

[elleng]

2. Right, no way back until we feel safe shopping, traveling, drinking and dining.

[Srkdqltr]

3. No child care open.

What do parents do with older kids who would be in school or staying with gramma?

[empedocles]

4. Hmmmm

According to Scherbina and Nicholas’ working paper, “Real Estate Prices during the Great Depression,” the prices for a typical Manhattan house increased 62% in a run up of the 1929 stock market crash and then lost 51% of that value by the end of 1933. By 1932 and 1937 the stock market showed signs of rebounding, but real estate did not, according to Scherbina. A house purchased in 1920 would have lost 51% of its value (in inflation-adjusted terms) by the end of 1939. Scherbina and Nicholas report that it wasn’t until 1960 that housing prices recovered. [UC Davis]

[This is the kind of possibility that is just well beyond the consideration of most].

[Igel]

5. Wasn't just services.

Some manufacturing was also "non-essential."

Piggybacking on that part of the recession is the oil industry. International dealings made it risky, but crashing domestic demand was the KO punch.

Notice that the Fed dumped trillions into the securities markets because on top of the recession due to services, some manufacturing, and oil, there's a financial crisis lurking in the wings exacerbated by companies' carrying a high debt burden completely sustainable before COVID but now able to sink many. A portion of that crisis is oil based, but the rest is strictly shut-down related.

[SCantiGOP]

6. This is my mantra

I spend way too much time arguing with idiots on my hometown (in SC) online newspaper site.
Whenever the "they're going to die anyway, open up, we need a haircut" start arguing the old "cure is worse than the disease" nonsense my go line is:
It doesn't matter how you feel about the economy, the fact is that the economy won't and can't come back until the virus is under control.

While some will argue back, I usually get three or four times as many agreements where people say: That's right, I'm not going out now even if they order everything back open.

And that is a very sad prognosis. Even if we do the right thing this virus has many months if not years before it is under control. And I am afraid it will be a long time before we see an economy like we had for the last 10 years, and even then things will never be the same. You could give me free tickets and $5,000 spending money and you wouldn't get me on a cruise ship ever again.

[Chainfire]

7. It is all going to be a personal choice

For the fist time ever, I will say, that I am going to choose life......

I will not be a full participant in the retail economy until such a time as there is an effective preventative or cure for the disease. The politics have changed, but the disease has not.

[BigmanPigman]

8. A lot of changes will come in the future and change how we were

working. I can't imagine what will happen long and short term.