Hidden Trump voters could have big November impact

[nitpicker]

https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/514664-hidden-trump-voters-could-have-big-november-impact

Hidden Trump voters could have big November impact

BY J.T. YOUNG, OPINION CONTRIBUTOR — 09/02/20 11:30 AM EDT

Trump supporters are far more likely to hide their preference in polls. This was the finding of recent research that investigated this increasingly prevalent assumption. If true in even small percentages, an imposing Trump surge could be hiding within the electorate.

There is growing suspicion that Trump supporters are not divulging their preferences to pollsters.
(snip)

To test this theory, CloudResearch recently sampled American voters in search of what they term “shy voters.” Their results show that Trump supporters were “significantly more reluctant to share their opinions on phone surveys compared to Biden supporters.” Almost 12 percent of Republicans and nearly 11 percent of Independents, were also almost twice as likely to be reticent than Democrats (about 5 percent).

These seemingly small percentages could have major November implications. For illustration of roughly how big, look at 2016 exit polling.

In the last presidential election, 36 percent of voters were Democrats, while 33 percent were Republicans and 31 percent were Independents. Applying CloudResearch’s “shy voter” percentages to each group yields 9 percent of the electorate as not giving their true candidate preferences.

However, those roughly one in 11 reticent voters are not, as CloudResearch discovered, evenly distributed between Donald Trump and Joe Biden. Instead, they run about 2-to-1 in Trump’s favor. On the net, they come out to around a 3 percent hidden “Trump bump.”

Again, that may appear small, but not in what is an increasingly tight race. According to Real Clear Politics’s average of polling results, Biden’s national lead is now just 6 percent — down from 9 percent on July 1. Currently, Biden’s lead in the all-important top battleground states is far narrower — just about 3 percent, compared to just over 5 percent on Aug. 5.
(snip)


((I add 5 percentage points to Repug poll results to account for "hidden" Repug voters, the sort that let machines answer the phone
but reliably cast their ballots each November.))

[idziak4ever1234]

1. I'm keeping track of the actual Trump voters in my area.

And I have a long memory.

[Me.]

2. THe Hill!

[WhiteTara]

12. yep. My

thought is how many hidden Biden supporters are there among the saner republicans who say they are for the orange buffoon, but actually vote for Biden and a future.

[onetexan]

22. YEP

[SWBTATTReg]

3. This is BS. The same argument as before (in 2016), and I'm hearing the same thing about ...

the hidden democratic voters, who are fed up w/ all things trump and are sick and tired of him. The true 'silent majority'.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

4. I don't believe it. Trump voters are loud and in your face about their preference

and I can't imagine that a significant number of them are being shy when talking to pollsters on the phone when they've plastered their lawns and pickup trucks with Trump signs and are out on the streets yelling at people wearing masks.

[Midnight Writer]

19. My experience is that Trump supporters are like born again Evangelicals.

They can't wait to spread The Good News.

[brewens]

5. I'd say it more likely almost all Trump supporters are eager to express their support anyway

they can, and unlikely to pass up the chance to help make him look good. Like all special interests, they want to believe they are much bigger than they are. Trump supporters I know IRL are convinced they are a huge majority and there is no chance he won't win. I'm in Idaho, so they are probably a little closer to being right on that one here than most places. They are still just the hard core 35% or so with a lot of average republicans that are going to hold their nose and vote for him.

[Aristus]

6. "THE RACE IS TIGHTENING! THE RACE IS TIGHTENING!

WATCH THE HORSES AS THEY COME DOWN THE BACKSTRETCH, NECK AND NECK!!!"

[ZZenith]

7. Yeah, right...

The Hill is published by Capitol Hill Publishing, which is owned by News Communications, Inc. Jimmy Finkelstein is the current CEO of New Communications who is described as a “Republican and longtime friend who served as a fundraiser for Giuliani’s failed 2008 presidential run.”

[d_b]

8. Yes, the shame and secrecy of trump supporters

Is well documented.

Will the other “shy” demographic be the Covid-Karens?
Beware these bullshit narratives from the Chuck Todd Industrial Complex.

Shithead may steal this election, but that’s all he can hope for at this point.

[EarlG]

9. There was a recent NYT article explaning why this is likely bunk

‘Hidden’ Trump Voters Exist. But How Much Impact Will They Have? Republicans insist that millions of Americans want to vote for Trump but won’t admit it. Polling experts tell a different story.

(snip)

But the idea that there are substantial numbers of Trump voters who will emerge from hiding on Election Day, large enough to sway the outcome, is not supported by the latest public opinion research — or by a proper understanding of what happened in past elections where the voter surveys were off, said pollsters who work for Republican and Democratic candidates.

(snip)

If voters were indeed afraid of voicing their support for the president, Mr. Winston said, other numbers in the poll would reflect that, like seeing an uptick in the percentage of undecided voters rather than a rise in support for Mr. Biden. “It would not be people saying they are voting for Biden,” he said, “but that they’re undecided.”

(snip)

“The problem for the Trump campaign is not the silent Trump voter but the disappearing Trump voter,” Mr. Garin said. “And there are a lot more disappearing Trump voters than there are silent ones.”

(snip)

Henry Olsen, a senior fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center, has noted another warning sign in the data for anyone holding out hope that a hidden pocket of voters will save Mr. Trump: There aren’t many people backing a third-party candidate right now who could potentially switch to the Republican ticket. Mr. Olsen said in an email that while some conservative voters often park themselves with the Libertarian candidate in the months before an election, many eventually come home to the Republicans.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/16/us/politics/trump-polls.html

[Gothmog]

21. I read some excerpts from that article

Thank you for posting this

[AleksS]

10. Here's the thing.

Trump is NOT getting more votes in 2020 than he did in 2016. Not a single person who voted for Hillary is going to turn around after 4 years of Trump and decide that NOW he’s their guy.

And Joe IS going to do better than Hillary in WI, MI, FL, PA, AZ.

The questions are only: how much better? And: will it be enough?

Hillary didn’t lose by much in the battlegrounds. Joe doesn’t have to do that much better. And he will.

[Vogon_Glory]

14. Oh, I suspect that Donnie will get a scattering of new voters

He’ll get the high school kids From 2016 who were too young to vote for him the last time around. He’ll get the idiots who treat elections as popularity contests instead of voting on the issues. Not to mention 2016’s anti-Trumpers who have chosen to whore for him after the election.

But here’s the thing: I suspect their numbers will be matched or surpassed by browned-off ex-supporters and those of his former supporters who flat-lined from COVID and multiple other causes since then.

[GeorgeGist]

11. Hiding in Moscow?

[marybourg]

13. BY J.T. YOUNG, OPINION CONTRIBUTOR -- ???

Russian bot?

[OAITW r.2.0]

15. More likely, the opposite is true.

I think there may be a lot of people who might publicly indicate their preference for Trump, but privately will vote Biden. I think there are people in relationships who aren't willing to disclose their real preference...maybe fear of their domestic partners or peer pressure.

[Fiendish Thingy]

16. Bullshit. If you add an arbitrary 5% shy voter, +2-3% MOE, that means Trump is winning

And has been all along, despite extremely stable polls in Biden’s favor. Accepting the Shy Voter theory means Trump will win an EV landslide, and the popular vote will be 1-2% for either candidate, instead of the 7-10% Biden victory all polls show.

Shy voter theory was questionable and unproven in 2016, utter nonsense in 2020.

Cloud Research polling isn’t even included in 538’s aggregate of polls.

I’ll stick with 538 and Rachel Bitecofer, thank you very much.

[imaginary girl]

17. Sounds like the new counter narrative to voter suppression ...

Sounds like the new counter narrative to voter suppression is being built, so they can point to this later and blame Biden's loss on it. Hope everyone is making a plan for voting safely in a manner most likely to count!

[beachbumbob]

18. lol, this was bullshit 4 years ago and remains bullshit today

no such thing as a shy trump supporter/voter.

[Gothmog]

20. Why do I see Russia's hand in this talking point?

In 2016 Russia put out a ton of crap that was picked up by the press. It is now clear that Russia is doing the same thing this cycle. I want Joe to win and win big to head off expected election contests. I discount articles like the one on the OP