The banks collapsed in 2008 - and our food system is about to do the same

[Gaugamela]

The banks collapsed in 2008 – and our food system is about to do the same
George Monbiot — The Guardian

We now know enough about systems to predict whether they might be resilient or fragile. Scientists represent complex systems as a mesh of nodes and links. The nodes are like the knots in an old-fashioned net; the links are the strings that connect them. In the food system, the nodes include the corporations trading grain, seed and farm chemicals, the major exporters and importers and the ports through which food passes. The links are their commercial and institutional relationships.

If the nodes behave in a variety of ways, and their links to each other are weak, the system is likely to be resilient. If certain nodes become dominant, start to behave in similar ways and are strongly connected, the system is likely to be fragile. In the approach to the 2008 crisis, the big banks developed similar strategies and similar ways of managing risk, as they pursued the same sources of profit. They became strongly linked to each other in ways that regulators scarcely understood. When Lehman Brothers failed, it threatened to pull everyone down.

So here’s what sends cold fear through those who study the global food system. In recent years, just as in finance during the 2000s, key nodes in the food system have swollen, their links have become stronger, business strategies have converged and synchronised, and the features that might impede systemic collapse (“redundancy”, “modularity”, “circuit breakers” and “backup systems”) have been stripped away, exposing the system to “globally contagious” shocks.

The food industry is becoming tightly coupled to the financial sector, increasing what scientists call the “network density” of the system, making it more susceptible to cascading failure. Around the world, trade barriers have come down and roads and ports upgraded, streamlining the global network. You might imagine that this smooth system would enhance food security. But it has allowed companies to shed the costs of warehousing and inventories, switching from stocks to flows. Mostly, this just-in-time strategy works. But if deliveries are interrupted or there’s a rapid surge in demand, shelves can suddenly empty.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/may/19/banks-collapsed-in-2008-food-system-same-producers-regulators

[ProudMNDemocrat]

1. Gregg Abbott's stunt at the southern border did not help matters any.

When trucks from Mexico laden with fresh produce and such were detained for so-called inspections for illegal trafficking of drugs and undocumented people.

But I understand the global impact as well.

[at140]

2. Food inflation has side benefits

USA is one of the most obese countries in the world.
It is a result of (food cost/wages) being one of the lowest in the world.
During my travels to 40+ countries, I am shocked how expensive restaurants are.
May be Americans will become less obese and that has enormous health benefits.

[kirby]

5. I disagree...

All you have to do is look at what food is cheapest and see that eating crap is often the cheapest. I don't think food inflation is going to have the supposed side benefit that you predict.

[Pobeka]

6. I agree with your disagreement. Processed food is cheap, and awful for our diets. nt

[barbaraann]

7. I think that one of the big factors in US obesity is eating too much processed food, including fast

food. And don't even get me started on "snacking."

[2naSalit]

3. It's worse than that.

All the corporate models do not take into account the fact that devastating climatic changes can happen quickly and trash major food sources or trade routes in a short time.

Environmental issues include over use of farm land and chemicals to grow crops. The big picture might discussed in boardrooms but they don't want us to come up with solutions because it will certainly affect their bottom line. So if we don't know we are being duped, they can carry on until there is nothing left for anyone.

[TeamProg]

8. +1 Drought is a large part of climate change. n/t

[Gaugamela]

9. Monbiot touches on that later in the piece:

Now the global food system must survive not only its internal frailties, but also environmental and political disruptions that might interact with each other. To give a current example, in mid-April, the Indian government suggested that it could make up the shortfall in global food exports caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Just a month later, it banned exports of wheat, after crops shrivelled in a devastating heatwave.

We urgently need to diversify global food production, both geographically and in terms of crops and farming techniques. We need to break the grip of massive corporations and financial speculators. We need to create backup systems, producing food by entirely different means. We need to introduce spare capacity into a system threatened by its own efficiencies.

The world could be in dire straits by the end of the summer. Food scarcity is probably the most common cause of widespread riots and political disruption — another potential destabilizing factor in the food system.

[2naSalit]

15. Thanks.

I didn't have time to read the article. I had to leave the house for the day all of a sudden, got called while I was typing.

[PXR-5]

4. Then the selfish hoarders buy what's left for themselves. nt

[dutch777]

10. And a shortage of diesel fuel won't help any given most of our food is trucked

[Probatim]

11. It's ok - we'll just bail them out with our tax dollars.

Everything will be fine.

[Baked Potato]

12. When speculators get further in the commodity markets

they will make it worse.

[Ollie Garkie]

13. Well

George Monbiot comes out with some variation of this every year,
crying wolf. The wolf on the story does come eventually a matter of when not if

[Gaugamela]

14. It's not only Monbiot that's saying this:

https://www.economist.com/leaders/2022/05/19/the-coming-food-catastrophe
(Paywall)

https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220518-un-chief-warns-of-famine-urges-russia-to-free-ukrainian-grain

Monbiot mostly covers the crisis of climate change, and offers critiques of neoliberal capitalism. I disagree that he’s crying wolf.

[2naSalit]

16. It's kind of five alarm five stuff...

I wonder when the electeds will give a shit.