China's new covid nightmare could become a global catastrophe
President Xi Jinping’s government had imposed draconian requirements for lockdowns, tests and forced quarantines during most of the pandemic. But once lifted on Dec. 7, the measures were followed by little guidance from the top. China’s party-state usually declares that everything is under control. Now, it appears to be quite unsettled. A wave of omicron infections is sweeping Beijing and might soon hit the rest of China. It has triggered panic buying of food and cold remedies. A government known for its rigidity and certitude stopped reporting some daily infections data and deactivated the ubiquitous covid-19 tracking app, adding to the uncertainty. Instead of basking in newfound freedom to go out, many people are scared, hunkering down inside.
China has troubled days ahead. Among those 60 years and older, only about 69 percent have received booster shots, and the uptake is even less among those over 80 years old. They are extremely vulnerable to omicron, and reports from China have indicated that a surge of deaths has already started, with crematoriums working around the clock. Mathematical models predict 1 million or more deaths early next year. China’s government has announced a plan to accelerate vaccination campaigns for the elderly, who have been hesitant to get the shots. For a long while, China has grossly underreported deaths due to covid and probably will continue to do so.
...
Mr. Xi’s motive for ditching the zero-covid policy was to kick-start a lagging economy, burdened by lockdowns and worker unrest. But the new approach might deal a roundhouse blow to the economy. It is causing widespread disruption to production and supply chains. Should China’s manufacturing slow, the world will feel the pain in the form of shortages and inflation.
China unwisely eschewed the effective mRNA vaccines for less-effective Chinese-made shots. The population has not been widely exposed to omicron, and thus lacks natural immunity. A potential lifeline is an aerosol vaccine developed by CanSino Biologics. It is being offered as a booster, in the form of an inhaled mist taken in through the mouth, after studies show it triggered an immune system response in people who had previously received two shots of a Chinese vaccine. The best strategy is pressing this vaccine and importing millions of mRNA shots, too.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/12/20/china-covid-policy-endanger-world/