THE AGE OF AMERICAN NAVAL DOMINANCE IS OVER

[icymist]

Very few americans—or, for that matter, very few people on the planet—can remember a time when freedom of the seas was in question. But for most of human history, there was no such guarantee. Pirates, predatory states, and the fleets of great powers did as they pleased. The current reality, which dates only to the end of World War II, makes possible the commercial shipping that handles more than 80 percent of all global trade by volume—oil and natural gas, grain and raw ores, manufactured goods of every kind. Because freedom of the seas, in our lifetime, has seemed like a default condition, it is easy to think of it—if we think of it at all—as akin to Earth’s rotation or the force of gravity: as just the way things are, rather than as a man-made construct that needs to be maintained and enforced.

But what if the safe transit of ships could no longer be assumed? What if the oceans were no longer free?

Every now and again, Americans are suddenly reminded of how much they depend on the uninterrupted movement of ships around the world for their lifestyle, their livelihood, even their life. In 2021, the grounding of the container ship Ever Given blocked the Suez Canal, forcing vessels shuttling between Asia and Europe to divert around Africa, delaying their passage and driving up costs. A few months later, largely because of disruptions caused by the coronavirus pandemic, more than 100 container ships were stacked up outside the California Ports of Long Beach and Los Angeles, snarling supply chains throughout the country.

No Paywall
https://archive.ph/pNGDr

[EarnestPutz]

1. The Atlantic article is really interesting. I'd suggest everyone read it. I'm no expert, but one...

.....thing that I agree with is putting a new emphasis on building smaller naval vessels, missile frigates, to ensure that sea lanes remain open. I'd be thinking about even smaller scale response to Russian or Chinese attempts to limit movement on large areas of the sea, or especially the trade choke points. The comparison that I'd draw would be with how the thinking about "traditional" tank warfare in Europe has been turned on it's head by drones and hand-held anti-tank missiles. Small, unmanned naval vessels launching drones and anti-ship missiles may well render large naval fleets obsolete.

LISIJMOPDAMPIIOYSK

[icymist]

2. Don't forget that we need more naval vessels able

to get into the opening Artic.

[EarnestPutz]

3. That is a very good point and perhaps another example of new thinking required for new times.

Thanks for posting the Atlantic article. Some of their usual good stuff. No paywall, who knew?

[relayerbob]

4. Very Reaganesque, but made some good points

We need more smaller vessels, but the article ignores the reality of partners like NATO, AUKUS and the like.

[LT Barclay]

5. Based on the comments, I'm guess the article is ignoring one important reality. Any large slow

moving object is going to be an easy target for drones. I can't remember which if the many global conflicts where it happened, but a whole column of tanks was destroyed by drones. As they become more capable, the role of ships will be greatly reduced.

[Postal Grunt]

6. Tonight's 60 Minutes...

had an interview with the Chief of Naval Operations, Adm. Michael Gilday. He stated that the Navy is developing drone vessels to be used in combat situations. They won't necessarily be cheap for a while but building a fleet up to a size that could match the fleet of the Chinese government would be extremely costly.

[icymist]

7. In the article

You will also find that our military shipyards with the proper dry docks are greatly reduced. We sent our industrial might overseas. Also, the suggestion that aircraft carriers may be going the way of the battleship.

[Martin68]

8. Oh, my, "the sky is falling, the sky is falling!" I have not seen a single sign that the US has

backed off from enforcing freedom of the seas. There are a few choke points that are being threatened, but none have shown any sign of closing anytime soon.