Predict Obama's odds in the 2012 election - WaPo

[Bill USA]

here's an interesting interactive form provided by the Washington Post. It allows you to enter an economic growth number (growth of GDP) and an approval rating for Obama, then calculates the probability for you. I enterred 2% economic growth (figure Bernanke is going to sit out doing anything to help the economy before election) with a 48% approval rating. I got a 86.3% likelihood of an Obama re-election. (Unfortunately, this model doesn't build in a handicap for voter suppression which I'm afraid just might make enough of a difference when it comes to counting electoral college votes.)



http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/politics/2012-election-predictor/?tid=rr_mod

Political scientists at George Washington, Yale and UCLA believe most elections can be predicted with just a few pieces of information. They created a formula that uses economic growth, presidential approval ratings in June and incumbency to forecast President Obama’s share of the two-party vote in the Nov. 6 election. Read more from Ezra Klein.


The model predicts that Obama will win 86.3 percent of the time
if the economic growth is 2 percent and his approval rating is 48 percent.

[Vincardog]

1. Do they factor in an insane opposition party and/or candidates?

[Drunken Irishman]

2. Of course, as you can see, H.W. Bush was predicted as a big winner in '92...

And he didn't win. That '92 election is interesting because while the economy was struggling, it had rebounded significantly and had pulled out of the recession prior to election day. Bush just couldn't overcome the downturn in '91. He should have won that election, but because he was perceived as unlikable, the economy turned south on his watch and Republicans had been in power since '81, it all was the perfect storm for defeat.

Obama this go around is likable, the economy has improved a bit on his watch and he's only been in office four years. So, this is like a reverse '92.

[longship]

3. R&K based on your response. nt

R&

[ge6252geafae]

4. well said friend..

[Bill USA]

5. I couldn't get the prior President's to work...??

had to read the source code to see what was supposed to print.

[Skeptical George]

6. If the Romneys keep opening their mouths,

I'd give Obama's reelection a 99% chance.

[nehcmit]

7. 80%+ is reasonable

Another statistician we hired ran a much simpler analysis and got 80%. This analysis ignores the impact of GDP growth since the election is so near, and focuses purely based on statistics.

The reason the odds are so good for Obama is because Romney has to win 57% of the contested electoral votes to win. The odds of this happening, based on current polling results, is only 20% with a 95% confidence of margin error at 8.1%.

http://www.nerdwallet.com/markets/election

[LongTomH]

8. You still have to factor in GOP dirty tricks!

Voter disqualification, e-voting machines, the whole dirty works!