China’s solar industry - the birthpangs of a new capitalist industry

[bananas]

http://theconversation.com/whats-going-on-with-chinese-solar-12941

27 March 2013, 2.31pm AEST
What’s going on with Chinese solar?

The bankruptcy of Chinese solar energy company Suntech Wuxi is being depicted in the media as a sign of chaos in the solar industry.

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What we’re seeing is the birth pangs of a new, capitalist industry. We should be rejoicing that some companies are going bankrupt – it shows that the industry really is competitive, and not subject to arbitrary state control.

There have been comparable episodes at the birth of every major industry. Detroit boasted hundreds of auto companies in the 1910s and 1920s before bankruptcies and consolidation led to the creation of the Big Three – Ford, General Motors and Chrysler. Likewise in electronics and computers. Now it is the turn of solar photovoltaics.

China has created an astonishingly successful solar photovoltaic industry, far beyond the imaginings of commentators even ten years ago. A decision was taken at the highest levels that China needed to promote renewable energy industries to complement and offset its rapid escalation of coal-burning and fossil fuel driven industrialisation.

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Via http://antinuclear.net/2013/03/30/chinas-solar-industry-the-birthpangs-of-a-new-capitalist-industry/

[1StrongBlackMan]

1. Posted to for later reading; but one re-reading thought ...

And the majority of the West will miss out on the "birth" because "we" have largely lost the "real businesses actually produce something other than money" connection.

[FBaggins]

2. That can't be right.

I have it on good authority that the shake-out in the Chinese solar sector is already over... grid parity has been reached... companies have no trouble raising capital... and solar stocks are at all-time highs.



China has created an astonishingly successful solar photovoltaic industry

What an odd definition of "success". It doesn't appear to actually include breaking even.

[bananas]

3. Solar Will Be Second-Biggest Source of U.S. Power Added in 2013

http://about.bnef.com/bnef-news/solar-will-be-second-biggest-source-of-u-s-power-added-in-2013/

Solar Will Be Second-Biggest Source of U.S. Power Added in 2013

March 21 (Bloomberg) — Solar power will be the second- biggest source of generating capacity added to the U.S. electric grid this year, according to Sharp Corp.’s Recurrent Energy unit.

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Rooftop solar systems can be installed for about $4 a watt and utility-scale systems for $2 a watt, Harris said. “We can see our way to $1.50,” he said. “At those kinds of costs, we’re competitive in the Southwest with conventional electricity.”

Panel prices have fallen almost 69 percent in the past two years, benefiting companies such as Recurrent that purchase and install the equipment and sell electricity from the systems to utilities. Falling costs also have enabled developers to accept lower-priced contracts. First Solar Inc. has signed a power purchase agreement for a project in New Mexico that will sell electricity at a lower rate than new coal plants earn.

“Solar has clearly landed in a place where it’s a very bankable asset class and is widely accepted and sought after,” Harris said. “It’s going to follow the same path that other asset classes have followed, which is now a move to public capital markets,” and that may include real estate investment trusts, master limited partnerships or other structures that enable shares of project portfolios to be publicly traded, he said.

<snip>

[FBaggins]

4. Nope. Not even close.

Though it could easily be the second largest source of capacity (as opposed to actual power generated).

Which doesn't change how far wrong you've been in your prior predictions (or how ridiculous the OP is). Now does it?