The Song Remains the Same | John Michael Greer
May 8, 2013 (Archdruid Report) -- If you always do what youve always done, a popular saying nowadays has it, youll always get what youve always gotten.
Most people accept that readily enough in the abstract. Its when they attempt to apply this logic to their own lives and thinking that they get tripped up, because self-defeating patterns very often arise from a mismatch between basic presuppositions about the world and the world as its actually experienced, and confronting that mismatch is not an easy thing. Its usually much simpler to insist that its different this time, and repeat the same failed strategy yet again.
The logic of speculative bubbles is a case in point. The next time you read some online pundit insisting that a new era has dawned, that the old rules of economics have been stood on their head, and that some asset class or other thats been rising steadily for a while now is certain to keep on zooming upwards for the foreseeable future, hes wrong. It really is that simple. Any of my readers who havent been hiding under a rock for the last 15 years or so saw that same rhetoric deployed to promote the tech stock bubble, the housing bubble, and an assortment of commodity bubbles, not least the recent and now rapidly deflating bubble in gold; those who know their way around economic history can find the same rhetoric being waved around every bubble since the Dutch tulip mania of the 17th century.
If human beings were in fact rational actors, as one of the more popular schools of economics these days likes to insist, investors would react to the next appearance of that well-worn rhetoric by pulling out every dollar they cant afford to lose. In the real world, of course, things dont work that way. When the Federal Reserves current orgy of quantitative easing finally does what its supposed to do and kicks off a gargantuan speculative bubble -- yes, thats what its supposed to do; Greenspans easy-money policy a decade ago succeeded in blowing a bubble big enough to cushion the downside of the tech-stock crash, and Bernankes pretty clearly working off the same playbook -- its a safe bet that investors will stampede into the bubble, its different this time will once again become the mantra du jour, and the same cycle of boom and bust will repeat itself with mathematical precision.
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