Syria Reveals that the 1960s-style "Critical State" is Imminent

[bananas]

Bruce Cordell makes me feel optimistic.

He's a space scientist who wondered when we'd send people beyond low-earth orbit again.

Back in 1996, he predicted that 2015-2025 would be a lot like the 1960's, with programs like Apollo and the Great Society.

According to his analysis, about twice a century social and economic cycles converge and society as a whole ascends Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs. This only lasts about ten years, so he calls it a Maslow Window, because it's a window of opportunity for society.

Environmentalists have called for Apollo-scale projects to transform our energy system. If Cordell is right, we might see that happening in a couple of years. With prices for wind and solar dropping, that might become a common-sense thing to do, even for Republicans and conservatives.

Cordell wrote the following article about Syria in early September and predicted how it would resolve based on the approaching Maslow Window.

http://21stcenturywaves.com/2013/09/02/syria-reveals-that-the-1960s-style-critical-state-is-imminent/

Syria Reveals that the 1960s-style “Critical State” is Imminent

Published by Dr. Bruce Cordell
Sep 02 2013

The Sunday New York Times (9/1/13) headine — “President Pulls Lawmakers Into Box He Made” — sums up the current dangerous Middle East situation that Obama aggravated by announcing, a year ago, his Red Line against the use of Syrian chemical weapons and then blinking when it occurred (see also David Sanger, NYT, 9/1/13).

A popular theme is emerging that sees parallels between the current crisis and the summer of 1914 which quickly led to World War I. For example, in “Obama is Playing With Fire in Syria” (8/30/31, CounterPunch) Rob Prince and Ibrahim Kazarooni of the University of Denver’s Korbel School of International Studies see real dangers:

<snip>

And in its recent politics blog, The Guardian (8/29/13) expressed the key idea in the title of its piece: The Syria dilemma: we don’t want it turning into another Sarajevo 1914.

<snip>

So in this context, the questions are: 1) Is Syria a harbinger of the approaching 1960s-style critical state? and 2) Is Syria likely to evolve into a global war like WW I?

Although predicting the future of a complex system in its critical state is tricky, the answers are probably and probably not.

History shows that Maslow Windows are asymmetrically bookended by wars; i.e., a smaller war or international conflict (e.g., Cuban missile crisis) just before or early during the Maslow Window, and a major war (e.g. WW I) that terminates the Maslow Window.

World War I, which originated during the most intense portion of the critical state, terminated the Maslow Window in 1914. While the smaller, early war was the Spanish-American War of 1898 which only briefly preceded the onset of a stunning JFK-style economic boom that triggered one of the most ebullient decades in US history.

During the 1960s critical state, the Cuban Missile Crisis was the early international conflict that had the potential for a full nuclear war between superpowers but was rapidly resolved. In this sense it appears to have parallels with the developing Syrian crisis, as we approach the new Maslow Window/Critical State expected by mid-decade.

Although the current geopolitical situation is not held hostage to the 200+ year historical patterns of Maslow Windows and their critical states, it appears that a major war is more likely to occur in the mid-2020s after the approaching Maslow Window/Critical State has lost momentum.

<snip>

[jakeXT]

1. Our times have been compared to 1914 (Replace Britain by the United States, Germany by China)

Replace Britain by the United States, Germany by China

Read more: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2013/03/11/from_1914_to_2014_the_shadow_of_rational_pessimism_117374.html#ixzz2gBUC6KCX

The shadow of 1914 falls over the Pacific
...

America’s security guarantee is meant to reassure Japan, but there is also a danger is that it might tempt Japanese politicians to take unnecessary risks. Some historians argue that in 1914, the German government had concluded that it needed to fight a war as soon as possible – before it was encircled by more powerful adversaries. Similarly, some Japan-watchers worry that nationalists in the government may be tempted to confront China now – before the gap in power between the two nations grows too large, and while the US is still the dominant military force in the Pacific.

The Americans’ concern about the nationalist turn in Japanese politics is amplified because they see the same trend in China. China now, like Germany 100 years ago, is a rising power that fears the established great power is intent on blocking its ascent. Deng Xiaoping, the father of modern China, pursued a foreign policy based on the adage: “Hide your strength, bide your time.” But his generation has been replaced by a new leadership group, which is more confident and assertive. The Chinese military is also increasingly influential in shaping foreign policy.

The analogy with Germany before the first world war is striking – as the adept leadership of Otto von Bismarck gave way to much clumsier political and military leadership in the years before war broke out. The German ruling elite felt similarly threatened by democratic pressures from below – and encouraged nationalism as an alternative outlet for popular sentiment. China’s leaders have also used nationalism to bolster the legitimacy of the Communist party.

It is, at least, encouraging that the Chinese leadership has made an intense study of the rise of great powers over the ages – and is determined to avoid the mistakes of both Germany and Japan. The fact that we are living in a nuclear age also makes the 1914 crisis much less likely to be replayed.

...
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/e29e200a-6ebb-11e2-9ded-00144feab49a.html