After Yasukuni China Closes The Door On (Japanese PM) Abe: Why Is He Smiling?
There can be no doubt that Japan’s relations with China are at the lowest point since the end of WWII. This week China publicly declared that Japanese Prime Minister Abe Shinzo “is not welcome” and that Chinese leaders will not meet with him.
It is interesting–if not particularly relevant–to speculate whether the status of persona non grata is something that, once assigned by China, is ever withdrawn, or whether one takes it to the grave. (I suspect that it is more permanent than a bad tattoo.) What is relevant is that as long as Abe remains prime minister the ban will certainly remain and, as a consequence, rapprochement between China and Japan to something like a normal bi-lateral relationship will be impossible.
Bottom line: We are now compelled to look beyond Abe’s term. The current Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) charter limits the party president to two consecutive three year terms. Having been elected president in 2012, unless the rules change (highly unlikely) Abe will not be term limited and will still be prime minister through 2018. Four years is a very long time, even in geopolitics.
The fillip that pushed relations over this precipice was ostensibly Abe’s December 26 visit to Yasukuni Shrine. But it is probably true that China seized upon that visit as a pretext and opportunity to close a door on negotiations on the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands dispute as long as Abe clearly was not prepared to negotiate (as he repeatedly indicated he was not).
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http://www.forbes.com/sites/stephenharner/2014/01/02/after-yasukuni-china-closes-the-door-on-abe-why-is-he-smiling
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