The death of Obamacare’s death spiral - i.e. young invincibles making up 28% of pool ain't a killer.

[Bill USA]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2014/01/14/the-death-of-obamacares-death-spiral/

1. Let's begin with what we know: The Department of Health and Human Services reports that 24 percent of the people purchasing health insurance through Obamacare's insurance marketplaces are between ages 18 and 34. That's below the 38 percent that most people -- including the Obama administration -- estimate the law needs if it's to keep premiums as low as everyone hopes.

2. But -- and this can't be emphasized enough -- this is not the final risk pool. No one anywhere expected that the risk pool would be balanced by Jan. 1. Major health laws always follow the same pattern: The people who badly need insurance sign up first, and they tend to be older and sicker. Younger people sign up later -- typically right before the penalty hits. So far, the age pattern in Obamacare enrollment is tracking the age pattern in enrollment for the Massachusetts reforms quite closely:



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3. The big question is what enrollment looks like on April 1 -- after the open enrollment period ends. The "important thing to watch," writes the Kaiser Family Foundation's Larry Levitt, "is [whether] enrollment among young adults trending upward? So far yes, based on graphs here." It's safe to say there will be many more young adults in the pool in April then there are now. But no one knows how many more.

4. The risk of a "death spiral" is over. The Kaiser Family Foundation estimates that if the market's age distribution freezes at its current level -- an extremely unlikely scenario -- "overall costs in individual market plans would be about 2.4% higher than premium revenues." So, in theory, premiums costs might rise by a few percentage points. That's a problem, but it's nothing even in the neighborhood of a death spiral.
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[AlbertCat]

1. 28%!!!!

Why that a larger % than the number of Teabaggers in the population!

[babylonsister]

2. Ha! Why yes it is! Amen! nt

[Dopers_Greed]

4. I don't get how they think younger people can prop up this bloated healthcare system

Most young people have to go to the doctor as well. Even one or two minor illnesses and an "invincible" 20-year-old will use more healthcare dollars than all of the premiums they paid for a year.

[drm604]

5. Do you have cites and numbers to back that up?

What do you consider a "minor illness"? Show us your stats proving that the cost of one or two "minor illnesses' is more than a years worth of premium payments.

[Major Nikon]

6. Not sure how you figure that

Even two office visits and a couple of scripts aren't going to cost more than the premiums and that probably wouldn't exceed the deductible in the first place.

It's been about 3 years since I've been to the doctor for anything other than a physical and I'm no spring chicken. Lots of people rarely go to the doctor and proportionately more of those people are younger.