American Delusionalism, or Why History Matters | John Michael Greer
March 19, 2014 (Archdruid Report) -- One of the things that reliably irritates a certain fraction of this blogs readers, as Ive had occasion to comment before, is my habit of using history as a touchstone that can be used to test claims about the future.
No matter what the context, no matter how wearily familiar the process under discussion might be, its a safe bet that the moment I start talking about historical parallels, somebody or other is going to pop up and insist that it really is different this time.
In a trivial sense, of course, that claim is correct. The tech stock bubble that popped in 2000, the real estate bubble that popped in 2008, and the fracking bubble thats showing every sign of popping in the uncomfortably near future are all different from each other, and from every other bubble and bust in the history of speculative markets, all the way back to the Dutch tulip mania of 1637. Its quite true that tech stocks arent tulips, and bundled loans backed up by dubious no-doc mortgages arent the same as bundled loans backed up by dubious shale leases -- well, not exactly the same -- but in practice, the many differences of detail are irrelevant compared to the one crucial identity. Tulips, tech stocks, and bundled loans, along with South Sea Company shares in 1730, investment trusts in 1929, and all the other speculative vehicles in all the other speculative bubbles of the last five centuries, different as they are, all follow the identical trajectory: up with the rocket, down with the stick.
That is to say, those who insist that its different this time are right where it doesnt matter and wrong where it counts. Ive come to think of the words its different this time, in fact, as the nearest thing history has to the warning siren and flashing red light that tells you that something is about to go very, very wrong. When people start saying it, especially when plenty of people with plenty of access to the media start saying it, its time to dive for the floor, cover your head with your arms, and wait for the blast to hit.
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