Ukraine crisis: West faces election nightmare

[bemildred]

As the days pass without an overt, large-scale, Russian military intervention in eastern Ukraine, Western leaders are focusing increasingly on another nightmare scenario - that elections planned for 25 May will not be able to take place.

The nervousness about this possibility among US and EU politicians stems from a knowledge that despite their vocal support for the interim authorities in Ukraine, they are in fact, as Russian statements never cease to point out, an unelected group who seized power.

So, in his stern message on Thursday, US Secretary of State John Kerry said that Russia had "failed to postpone Ukraine's elections… failed to halt a legitimate political process", and that now, through the aid of heavily armed pro-Moscow groups, was engaged in "a full-throated effort to actively sabotage the democratic process through gross external intimidation".

Russian response

Evidently though, under current security conditions, polling would be extremely difficult in much of eastern Ukraine, and attempts to regain control through Kiev's "anti-terrorism operation" seem to promise little, but run great risks if they cause sufficient casualties to prompt the Russian army to cross the border.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-27161578

[yurbud]

1. I thought the West's nightmare would be that the coup government would lose

and undo any deals made with the IMF.

[bemildred]

3. I'm not getting into it right now, people have lost their minds.

However, the elections are a big problem for the interim government. And the closer the date gets without some semblance of order and control by the government, the bigger the problem gets. And it can't just wait either, it has very little popular support as it is. You can't be a kamikaze government and ram though painful reforms without some shreds of popular support, it won't last.

[yurbud]

4. unfortunately, the "painful reforms" is why the west backed them in the first place

so they can't undo what they need to to gain more legitimacy with their own people.

[bemildred]

6. It's a problem all right. nt

[DetlefK]

2. How about using the elections as a tool to expose Russia?

Ukraine should ask for help from the UN and the OSCE in organizing elections and make sure that the elections are perfectly prepared in as many places as possible.

Ukraine should attempt to set up polling-stations in eastern Ukraine. And then they should invite election-observers from all kinds of institutions and countries, INCLUDING Russia. Free-for-all. Cameras and observers everywhere.

My predictions:
- The election in western Ukraine will go smoothly.
- The separatists will split whether to vote and gain influence in Ukraine or whether to abstain and de-legitimize the elections, thus diminishing their overall tally.
- If anything goes wrong in eastern Ukraine, Kiev can blame the separatists for sabotaging the elections.
- How is Russia supposed to claim election-fraud when so many eyes are there?

[bemildred]

5. That works for me.

I always like free, open, and fair elections.

[yurbud]

7. it would be a good opportunity to expose what both Russia AND the West have to offer Ukraine

and why the West wanted an exclusive relationship even though Russia was willing to accept a Ukraine with ties to both the West and itself.

[Jefferson23]

8. Good luck. Yikes, what a mess. n/t

[JackRiddler]

9. How kind of the BBC to understand whose "nightmare" it is...

never mind the Ukrainians, whose elected government was overthrown by a right-wing coup d'etat based on exploiting ethnic conflict. It's "the West" that is now having nightmares, albeit at a convenient remove from the actual blood-spilling on the streets.

Yeah, I can imagine "the West" sees the elections as a nightmare -- since there is of course no guarantee the present government (an unelected government which includes fascists, and which is imposing austerity) would win a legitimate, peaceful election that includes all of the people (who after all voted in a majority for Yanukovich just 3 years ago).

So it's important to make it seem like it's the Russian government that is causing the problem, when there wouldn't have been a problem in the first place if "the West" had not helped engineer the coup d'etat, and had simply waited for the country's next regular elections.

[Igel]

10. Only the west sees this as a problem.

In the Russian media it's not a problem for the Donetsk Republic to pull off elections a couple of weeks before the national ones. The Russian media consider them to be professionals, the situation in the East to be completely stable enough to provide reliable returns--even if the people running it are those who seized the buildings, often at gunpoint and have armed patrols in the streets. A number of mayors and officials have been led away at gun point. They're being held as enemies. Even if they were elected.

The "activists" gone into newspaper offices and given the editors their demands. They can't be referred to as "separatists" or "militants" but as "activists," for example. Their proper titles must be used. The newspapers must show respect and honor the will of the people in promoting the right line. If you're subverting the Donetsk Republic it's an infraction. All these laws were passed "democratically" by whoever happened to be allowed in the building or those in the crowd at the time, "by the people" and, at times, "for the people." You have to go through checkpoints where they routinely asks, "Your papers, please" and anybody suspect is detained. If you're suspicious, you're a spy. A lot of people don't agree with the DPR folk and don't want to say anything. A lot are hoping just not to be assaulted by peace activists in camo, carrying guns and wearing masks because they're so interested in transparency.

If things are that stable not just in Slov'ansk but in Donetsk and many other places--the entirety of the oblast'--then having elections in the rest of the country that apply to Donetsk simply is too trivial a problem worth mentioning.

Even the OBCE folk know what's up. They consider themselves guests of Ponomar'ov. They're treated well. But they also say they're under heavy guard--spinning it as a positive, of course, since they're on a diplomatic mission and still would like things to work out. Also because if they say things aren't well they're likely to be very bad indeed. Rybak and the college student that were tortured and found dead a few days ago are a reminder.

BTW, the 3 SBU officers that were detained had as their mission detaining and extracting the guy that's considered mostly likely responsible for their torture and murders. Gotta be a good guy, that one.

[JackRiddler]

11. My, sounds like a mirror image of what happened in Kiev...

a few weeks earlier, when a combination of neoliberals and right-wingers, working with explicitly fascist forces on the street, overthrew the elected government.

They too occupied buildings and called themselves the only legitimate government, held "democratic" votes, etc. And on the first day after taking power in parliament, they banned Russian as a state language! And then they were shocked, shocked, that Russians thought of this as an ethnic antagonism rather than a totally legitimate move of "the people."

Incredible how "the West" helps to light the fire and then sees only the response on the other side, rather than the illegitimacy of the side "the West" has backed.