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The Trouble with Experts.... (Original Post) MindMover Apr 2012 OP
Really interesting, thanks for posting. A Simple Game Apr 2012 #1
Very well said...."For just plain predictions, I would stick with the dart throwing monkeys." MindMover Apr 2012 #2
Thanks for posting such a wonderful resource tech3149 Apr 2012 #3
Just finished watching the whole thing. Very entertaining! nt Poll_Blind Apr 2012 #4
Excellent. As a former "expert", may I add.... Scuba Apr 2012 #5
Very insightful zeemike Apr 2012 #6

A Simple Game

(9,214 posts)
1. Really interesting, thanks for posting.
Sun Apr 22, 2012, 05:58 PM
Apr 2012

In my experience the expert/consultant that is really worth their title is not the one that knows everything, it is the one that has very good deductive powers and can figure out problems. These are limited to logistics, mechanical, and production type problems. There are actually many of this type out there. For just plain predictions, I would stick with the dart throwing monkeys.

tech3149

(4,452 posts)
3. Thanks for posting such a wonderful resource
Sun Apr 22, 2012, 07:33 PM
Apr 2012

But I do have to ask is there any way we can view other episodes outside on Canada?

 

Scuba

(53,475 posts)
5. Excellent. As a former "expert", may I add....
Mon Apr 23, 2012, 08:10 AM
Apr 2012

Random thoughts (beer and travel money appreciated)...


Definition of an expert, circa 1950: Anyone carrying a slide rule.

Definition of an expert, circa 1970: Anyone from more than 50 miles away carrying a clipboard.

Definition of an expert, circa 1990: Anyone from more than 500 miles away carrying a laptop.

It's unfair to mix all "experts". Mechanical engineers are much more reliable than TV pundits. The key here is how subjective the "expertise" is. Mathematics is hard science. Wine tasting and art appreciation are not. Economic prediction is folly. There are simply so many variables that such large social systems cannot be reliably modeled.

There is no certification, licensing or regulation of "consultants". Say you are one, and you are. As pointed out in the video, knowing the jargon is today's certification of qualification.

The part about the "making you an expert, expert" is worth noting. Presentation is incredibly important in building and maintaining one's credibility. Whether it's your resume, work product (think food!) or yourself, sloppy presentation destroys credibility regardless of other factors.

Empirical studies have proved that 74.3% of all statistics are made up on the spot.

It's fun watching art and wine "experts" getting skewered.

When they released the IBM PC in 1982 IBM "experts" predicted a "world market of 25,000 units".

Hopefully the "Wall Street Prison Expert" will have a booming business.

zeemike

(18,998 posts)
6. Very insightful
Mon Apr 23, 2012, 12:05 PM
Apr 2012

And I hope many watch it because the first step in not being fooled is to realize that you are.

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