Is War on the Way Out? - Institute of Politics at Harvard

[Douglas Carpenter]

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Joshua Goldstein, author of "Winning the War on War: The Decline of Armed Conflict Worldwide," and Steven Pinker, author of "The Better Angels of Our Nature: Why Violence Has Declined," discuss the meaning and implications of their latest releases with HKS professors Monica Toft (author of "God's Century: Resurgent Religion and Global Politics&quot and Stephen Walt. Both Goldstein and Pinker, from distinct vantage points, argue for the counterintuitive notion that violence, among both individuals and states, is on a downward trajectory. Both the supporting data and reasoning behind this positive shift is hotly debated. Professor Joseph Nye moderates the discussion.

Date: Jan 30, 2012


A non-utopian discussion based on hard data - asking the questions about the relative decline in violence worldwide. I first got interested in this subject upon reading a incredible book that challenges all my previous assumptions - The Better Angels of our Nature: Why Violence has declined - by Harvard psychology professor and historian - Steven Pinker

http://books.google.com/books/about/The_Better_Angels_of_Our_Nature.html?id=J7ATQb6LZX0C

I posted another video a few days ago featuring a presentation by Dr Pinker:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/101749549

I am beginning to feel disturbingly optimistic about the future of the world This is a new experience for me and very scary.

.

[SheilaT]

1. Oh, gosh.

Somehow, while I'm sure I can't debunk their statistics, I still see a lot of wars out there and an awful lot of violence on a scale well below that of war.

[heaven05]

2. not unless

Last edited Mon Aug 20, 2012, 07:51 PM - Edit history (1)

there is a major consciousness shift along with a positive paradigm shift, otherwise, we're doomed. Much too much violence worldwide for me to have much hope anymore. Had some in the 60's, that died with the Kennedy's, King, X, yes MalcolmX, when he returned from mecca, he let go of his racial hate, one of the reasons he was killed.

[Douglas Carpenter]

3. but violence has declined globally - this is a fact

in this discussion above Dr. Goldstein and Dr. Pinker present the data - It really is not a matter of opinion. Violence has in fact declined. Just as it is a fact that polio, small pox and starvation have declined and literacy rates have improved. Both Dr. Goldstein and Dr. Pinker would be the first to say that there is no guarantee that this trend will continue. A single nuclear event or some other catastrophe could throw the progress toward a less violent world into pandemonium. But the data leaves no serious doubt that the trend over the centuries even in spite of the two world wars - but most significantly in recent decades - in the big picture violence has in fact and without a doubt declined.

IN this detailed talk Dr. Pinker presents a lot of the data from his book, The Better Angels of our Nature

[limpyhobbler]

5. Hi. Pinker does not really claim that total violence has declined, but rather only that

it has declined on a per capita basis. He doesn't dispute that more people died violently in the 20th century than in any other century. He says that as a percentage of global population it was less violent.

He thinks that is a step in the right direction and then bases the whole book around that premise. It's not clear to me that per capita violence is the best way to judge whether violence is declining. By that standard, if population keeps increasing and total violence keeps increasing in this century, Pinker would still judge it as a decline in violence as long as it declined on a per capita basis.

He also ignores other types of violence. For example if a village is burned down and all the peasants are forced out of their homes to go work 12-hour days in a Nike factory, he does not consider this a form of violence, as long as no blood is shed.

I could be wrong but that's how I understood Better Angels.

[Douglas Carpenter]

6. Pinker would maintain that in terms of percentage of global population World War II would be # 9

Although, you are correct that in terms of absolute numbers he does not dispute that World War II had the highest number of deaths and casualties. That is not in dispute by anyone. What he strongly maintains is that steadily the percentage of the population that dies at the hands of other people has steadily decreased - even in spite of massive atrocities such as the two great wars of the 20th century. Based on forensic archeology and also comparisons with recently existing or currently existing non-state hunter-gatherer societies - the percentage of death by some form of homicide averages around 15% but goes as high as more than 50% . Life in early state societies or medieval society had a percentage averaging around 10% based on the consensus of the best evidence available. Globally in the 20th century it is reasonably estimated that about 3% of the population died as a result of acts of violence. Post World War II and Now post cold-war the percentage is well bellow 1% globally.

He does measure specific acts of physical violence - with a concentration on homicides. Certainly my experience with the third world where I have spent most of my life, I have found that when it comes to working 12 hour shifts in Nike factories - no one has to burn anyone's village down to find workers. As low as their wages may be and as harsh as their conditions are - the realities of the alternative and the hopes for earning some money as opposed to little or no money insures that the Nike factories of the world have several times more applicants then they have positions. Thats just how things are in most of the world - harsh but still a lot less harsh than a world where torturing people to death was sanctioned by church authority and regarded as good, clean and moral entertainment - a world where the possibility of a roaming hoards burning down the village, killing all the men, raping all the women and selling the children into chattel slavery. That world which sounds like a nightmare to our delicate 21st century sensibilities was only a few centuries ago the world of our European ancestors - and the world just about everywhere else was many times even worse.

[heaven05]

7. sure

[Douglas Carpenter]

8. well there is no need to fret, there are still plenty of other bad things happening in our world

[valerief]

4. What racket will replace the war racket? nt