According to the Latest ABC News/Washington Post polls in Florida and Arizona, it is tied

[still_one]

ABC News/Washington Post
Sept 15-20
Florida 613 LV Biden 47% trump 51%
Florida 765 RV Biden 48% trump 47%

Arizonia 579 LV Biden 48% trump 49%
Arizonia 701 RV Biden 49% trump 47%

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

The debates should be critical I would think.

The question is, in spite of the constant lies and misinformation from trump and his surrogates, a significant number of his supporters, despite hard evidence to the contrary believe those lies.

The Bob Woodward book had a lot more information than just his lies about Covid, and it demonstrated just how unhinged and dangerous he is, and in spite of the tapes in trump's own words, and consistent lead of Biden in the national polls, a hand full of states will determine this election

Trump is holding massive in person rallies, putting his supporters at risk, but getting a lot of coverage, while in contrast the Biden campaign is having a much smaller group gatherings, and it seems his presence is hardly noticed, especially in those critical states

That virus cases are rising across U.S., especially in those states where trump is holding those massive in person rallies, is confounding that his supporters seem so apathetic about. Currently we have 40000 cases a day!!!

I think our biggest advantage is that I don't think trump can move beyond his base, which means that registering people to vote, getting out the vote, and encouraging people to vote earlier where they can is critical to our winning

[mucifer]

1. I bet the door to door volunteers is helping spread the lies effectively

[still_one]

3. No doubt about, along with probably helping spread the virus. It is obvious that the entire

trump campaign does not care for the lives and welfare of his supporters, or anyone else

[no_hypocrisy]

2. I believe that ratio will change after

Bloomberg pays the fines/penalties for ex-Florida felons.

[still_one]

5. I think that might be under the radar though, because they may not get effectively included

in the polling

I would be curious if the debates will have an impact

[Iliyah]

4. Is that the number of people they . .

surveyed next to the state. Oh my gosh, if so, the number of people polled seems to have been reduced.

[still_one]

6. That is what it says in those states between likely voters and register voters. Florida is close,

but the Arizona poll might be an outlier, since it doesn't line up with the other pollsters

[MontanaFarmer]

7. Either their likely voter screen is wrong

or there's a shift toward trump in progress. That's a really bad poll from both those states based on most that came out last week.

[Loki Liesmith]

9. Or it's just statistical variability

Which is almost always the explanation

[Loki Liesmith]

8. Throw it on the average

[femmedem]

10. Unsettling to say the least. This 538 graphic shows just how critical those two states are:

Scroll down to "The Winding Path to Victory" graphic: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

[still_one]

11. I think the Arizona poll might be an outlier, since it is pretty out of line of other polls.

Florida is much closer

Pennsylvania I am very concerned about, because the complicated mail-in voting instructions, and if they are not followed exactly, then the ballot will be rejected

https://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/news/politics/decision-2020/secrecy-envelopes-will-cause-electoral-chaos-official-warns/2539926/

[femmedem]

13. Yes, I support absentee ballots--I'm voting absentee myself--but am worried about errors

costing us the election. In Connecticut, the primary ballots were printed so that if you put the ballot iin the envelope facing the wrong way, your own address would show in the address window and you would mail it to yourself.

[still_one]

14. I am in California, and we don't have these issues, but I hope there are public service

messages educating voters the steps in filling out the ballot

[magicguido]

15. How can we possibly be losing to this Diseased Cretin of a Disaster?

Why are so many so ill informed?

[Stuart G]

16. On election day at 8pm ET. it won't be tied..Landslide for Biden.