Turning COVID Into The Common Cold A Doctor Explains

[Quixote1818]

[utopian]

1. He does a great job laying it all out

Thanks for sharing

[Warpy]

2. Couple of quibbles

There are over 200 viruses that cause the common cold, and that's why there's no vaccine for it. Types include rhinovirus, coronavirus, respiratory syncytial virus, and adenoviruses. Little kids seem to get them every couple of weeks because they're not really immune to any of them yet, although antibodies from Mom can help infants.

Second, there is no reason to believe SARS Cov-2 will attenuate into a common cold. We don't know how long the vaccines protect against severe illness, Right now, eight months is well documented so they're recommending boosters for at risk people eight months after the first shots. In another four months, that might be pushed to twelve months. This is a new disease, we really don't know.

What will cause this disease to become less of a killer is vaccine, he's right about that. He's wrong about kids, we're seeing too many of them in the hospital right now, seriously ill. Likely the vaccine will have to be extended to them at some point.

The only question now is how often boosters will need to be given. The disease hasn't been around long enough to determine that.

Oh, and how big a stick will have to be used to get selfish assholes to just get the damn shots.

[Quixote1818]

4. I think it's going to slow way down pretty fast. The Spanish Flu only lasted two years

and flu viruses are much, much, much less stable than coronaviruses. They also had no vaccine for Spanish Flu, so it became only rarely deadly because of natural immunity.


Coronavirus seems to mutate much slower than seasonal flu
https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-mutation-rate.html

[Warpy]

6. Even the Delta variant doesn't seem to be as contagious as the Spanish flu

which roared through places like Philadelphia in a few weeks (thanks to TFG level stupidity).

Actually, flu mutates very rapidly, which is why we have a new vaccine every year.

Covid seems to be moving in slower waves, peaks and troughs and then reocurring in a new wave. It's going to be around for some time. The only thing that will help is near universal vaccination, and that's going to mean a lot of very unhappy jerks.

[intrepidity]

3. He only mentions Delta briefly, and doesn't address the issue of variant emergence

I agree mostly with his take, but for that one omission.

An endemic virus will have lots of opportunity to mutate, no?

[Native]

5. I also remember reading that a natural immunity doesn't protect you against the Delta variant as

well as vaccines.