Am I thinking wrong in expecting that quarantines and lockdowns are

[pnwest]

going to have to last a lot longer than 14 days or a month? It seems to me that everyone needs to shelter in place and businesses need to remain shuttered until there's a vaccine. That's going to be a whole lot longer than a month. Why is no one talking about this? What am I missing here? Sure, flattening the curve is the point, but lifting the restrictions will just create a spike again as people begin mixing again, right?

[we can do it]

1. More like 2 months.

[Fla Dem]

18. Yep, I think until at least mid May to June. Maybe like flu i

it will go into hibernation when the warmer weather arrives.

[defacto7]

24. This virus doesn't work that way. No seasonal difference.

[Fla Dem]

25. Ugh, thanks for the correction.

[Sherman A1]

2. I fully expect this to go on for 2 years

the affects on the economy will be devastating.

[padfun]

7. I agree

And things wont go back to where they were. There will be huge panic bailouts and we will eventually find the economy going into Inflation.

[pnwest]

42. See, that's kinda where I'm at with this, like at least until

half the population has been vaccinated. 1.5 -2 years before we see any real movement upwards for the economy.

[hlthe2b]

3. No, you certainly are NOT wrong.

[secondwind]

4. At least one month, if not more. Two weeks isn't enough. Idiots are still packing the beaches

in FL and CA.

[Skittles]

5. bad news is best delivered in small doses

yup

anyone can see this will last for some time, these "deadlines" are meaningless

[WhiteTara]

6. Here's a data center about all this

https://covidactnow.org/

[unblock]

8. severe lockdowns don't need to last very long to be very effective, but definitely more than 15 days

there's a huge benefit to shutting things down tight for even just 4-6 weeks, although 8-10 weeks is probably much better.

but it doesn't need to be that severe for much longer than that.

the idea is to slow the spread of the virus long enough to allow hospitals to increase capacity with more ventilators, more beds, more intensive care units, more people brought out of retirement, more masks, etc.

once hospital capacity is higher, we can start to ease up on the restriction, not completely, but it no longer needs to be so strict either. the virus then spreads more than it did during the clampdown, but now the hospitals can handle the new cases.

eventually, enough people have been exposed to it already that it no longer spreads as quickly anyway and the restrictions can lift even further. with any luck, the virus is at least somewhat seasonal and warmer weather reduces new cases further....

[northoftheborder]

9. My thoughts exactly.

I expect at least 5-6 months.

[Phoenix61]

10. A vaccine is at least one year out.

Shelter in place isn’t to prevent people from contracting covid. It’s to reduce the number who have it at any given time so medical care will be available for them.

[pnwest]

20. Right - but then wouldnt "letting everyone loose" again

do just the opposite again? Cause more people to pass it around and give more cases at once again?

[Phoenix61]

31. Yes it would. Then when cases increase you

return to social isolation.

[NRaleighLiberal]

11. life will be significantly altered for 12- 18 mo in my view

[redstatebluegirl]

12. We need at least 3 weeks of consistent message from numb nuts and Fox news.

As well as any other place the ignorant masses get their information in order to get this to stop. Young people need to stay home. Stupid people who only watch fox need to stay home. Until that happens we are cooked.

[CanonRay]

13. Much longer if morons keep packing California beaches

like last weekend

[jberryhill]

14. If you are able to read this, it answers your questions

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

[brush]

15. Of course they should, nothing's going away in 14 days but stupid trump will rescind...

the shutdowns, get a lot of people infected and killed and the govs will have to bring sanity again by shutting down again.

[SoCalNative]

19. Trump hasn't shut anything down so there's nothing to rescind

It has been states, counties and cities that have put the measures in place.

CA is on lockdown for an undetermined amount of time as the governor did not provide any date.

[brush]

22. Guess you haven't heard he's itching to get the economy going again.

He will try something.

[Shermann]

16. China keeps humming along at 80K active cases

...despite few new cases each day. What's going on there?

[dewsgirl]

29. China is full of shit is what's happening there.

[Shermann]

35. Maybe, but the number of recovered cases in the U.S. is also showing as zero

It is surely higher than that.

[dewsgirl]

37. Oh, I was in no way saying the US numbers are accurate.

[Ferrets are Cool]

17. You are correct, in my estimation. nt

[yuiyoshida]

21. The way I see it, the longer people ignore the

Shelter in place action, the longer this wil drag on.

[Shermann]

36. It's the opposite actually

Sheltering in place drags out this process, which is the idea.

[yuiyoshida]

38. I SAID IT CORRECTLY..

129 DEATHS in the USA, The NUMBERS are going up because the virus is spreading because people are together in a group. Staying home will stop the spread of the disease.

[Shermann]

39. STOP is not in the cards

The two cards remaining in the deck are SLOW and FAST

[yuiyoshida]

41. IT will eventually

burn itself out...if there are no more hosts.

[flying_wahini]

23. It all about pacing the inevitable cases. Trying to slow the spike so thousands more don't die.

Eventually half the people reading this will get it. Probably more, by the time this is over.

[LaurenOlimina]

26. Yes, lifting the restrictions now would be suicide, or maybe homicide.

[dewsgirl]

30. Homicide indeed.

[defacto7]

27. It's not so much how long but how many participate.

As long as people are in the open spreading the disease the cycle will keep repeating. If everyone on earth could stop spreading it for the time it takes for all ill patients to be resolved, the disease would die off in a few weeks. That won't happen. Everything concerning C-19 being stopped hangs on a vaccine that everyone actually takes or natural immunity which would cost hundreds of millions of lives.

[wnylib]

28. Restrictions should remain in place for

at least 2 months. But Trump opposes that. Today he said it would change "soon, very soon."

The governors put the shutdowns into effect, but they are also relying on federal funds and some federal rules to help them carry out out the closings and assistance to people in isolation..

I expect that when the 2 weeks are up, Trump will announce that everyone not in a severely affected area should go back to work. He will use threats to the states, and "patriotism" to push people out of isolation and social distancing.

[customerserviceguy]

32. I'm with you

this is going to take at least until July first to even think about any semblance of going back to normal. It's a good thing that all we will really need in that time is some medicines. As long as Express Scripts can keep sending us three month supplies of our pills, all I will have to get at a pharmacy is my diabetes medication, which needs to be refrigerated.

[DFW]

33. Local restrictions here in Germany

So far, in effect until April 19, subject to constant review, of course.

[zanana1]

34. I think that if virus can't find a host, it dies?

[Totally Tunsie]

40. Some fat guy squattting in our house in Washington, DC disagrees.

Thank heavens we follow the principle of States' Rights!