Powerball jackpot at $425M: Where's your best chance to win?

[AmyStrange]

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Powerball jackpot at $425M: Where's your best chance to win?
August 7, 2013, 12:40 PM
Jessica Hartogs

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-201_162-57597398/powerball-jackpot-at-$425m-wheres-your-best-chance-to-win/

"Wednesday may just be the day that changes your life, especially if you buy a ticket to tonight's Powerball lottery.

"The jackpot is estimated to be $425 million, the fourth largest of any U.S. lottery.

"However, before you start dreaming big, there maybe some ways to increase your chances.

"First of all, out of the 43 states that participate in the Powerball, there are some that appear luckier than others... "

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[Scuba]

1. OMG this man is stupid ...

"The lazy way out is to buy quick-picks. The computer picks out the numbers. Don't play quick-picks. Quick-picks are the worst thing you can do, you are playing with the worst odds," said Lustig.

Yes, since the numbers you picked out somehow have a better chance than any other random sequence.


As for the best place? Anyplace, but there have been lucky places ....



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fond_du_Lac,_Wisconsin

Lottery winnings and the "Miracle Mile"


Ma and Pa's on the "Miracle Mile"
In the 1990s, several grocery and convenience stores on a stretch of South Main Street in Fond du Lac sold large winning Wisconsin Lottery tickets, resulting in that part of Main Street being dubbed "The Miracle Mile." The first ticket, sold by Sentry Grocery Store (now closed), was for over $100 million and was won on July 7, 1993, by then Sabish Junior High (now middle school) English teacher, Les Robbins, and his then-fiancee, Colleen DeVries.

On August 5, 2006, Ma and Pa's Grocery Express, which is in the heart of the Miracle Mile, sold the only winning Powerball ticket for $209 million. The ticket was claimed on September 22, 2006 by 100 factory workers from Sargento Cheese in Plymouth, Wisconsin. Another group of Sargento employees also won a $10,000 prize in August 2007.

[AmyStrange]

3. He may be stupid...

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but he has won seven times, although I do remember reading somewhere that most winning combos have been quick picks.

Thank you for sharing Scuba

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[KamaAina]

13. Won what? Five bucks?

It doesn't say he won seven jackpots.

This is stupid, too:

For example, Pennsylvania has had 16 winners in its history. The next luckiest state is Indiana with 11. New Jersey brings up the rear with just three jackpot wins.

NJ added Powerball fairly recently, as did NY and CA (with no wins, until tonight, at least ). Hence, fewer winners.

[AmyStrange]

20. He was a seven-time lottery grand prize winner...

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"Richard Lustig, seven-time lottery grand prize winner and author of "Learn How To Increase Your Chances of Winning The Lottery" shared some other tips on how to win in a previous interview with CBSNews.com. "

d

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[AmyStrange]

24. Two winners in New Jersey...

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you were right about NJ,

d

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[PoliticAverse]

2. Your best chance to win is to keep your money and not buy a ticket. n/t

[AmyStrange]

4. Ha ha...

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that's funny, but it's also kinda like saying, to avoid car accidents don't buy a car, or some such stupid rot... oh well, carry on.

also, thank you for sharing,

d

[PoliticAverse]

5. Well if you want a different answer, if the ticket purchase price has positive expectancy

your best chance is to buy as many tickets with different picked numbers as you can afford.

In fact sometimes some investment pools actually do that.

[AmyStrange]

6. That's true...

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and the number of tickets you need to buy is determined by the odds of winning, which is what 1 in 100 million or some such number. Of course, there are some combinations you don't have to buy, like consecutive numbers etc, but since you're spending millions anyway, why not buy them too.

How long would that take to buy and print out all those tickets? Or, is there a special ticket that says "ALL POSSIBLE NUMERICAL COMBINATIONS", or maybe just simply "THIS TICKET IS AN INSTANT WINNER" since you're guaranteed to win. All that's left to do is see how many other winners you have to share with.

I read somewhere that some people even invest in such things.

Thank you for sharing PA,

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[PoliticAverse]

7. You may find the following stories interesting...

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/how-to-make-a-killing-on-the-lottery-1322272.html

https://www.nydailynews.com/news/crime/mit-students-scammed-massachusetts-state-lottery-8-million-report-article-1.1128482

[AmyStrange]

8. I didn't know doing stuff like that was illegal...

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kinda makes sense though, but still why does anyone care if someone buys a million different tickets?

Where's the harm and how is that fraud? I don't remember ever reading anywhere that everyone is limited to buying a certain number of tickets and that's it. Counting cards I can see, but buying lottery tickets?

Oh well, thanx for the info PA,

d

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[SwissTony]

11. Are you saying "consecutive number" tickets are less likely to win than "random" choices?

They're not.

Want some probability calculations?

Suppose both of us enter one ticket in a "pick 6 from 40" lottery (let's ignore local complications such as power balls). I choose the combination 1,2,3,4,5,6 while you choose the combination 4,12,18,23,31,39.

The first ball is drawn...what is the chance that one of mine is drawn? It's 6/40.

OK, I've got one what's the chance that another of mine is drawn? I've got 5 balls left and there are 39 possibilities. So the chance of one of my balls being drawn (given that one of my balls was drawn in the first round) is 5/39.

OK, I've now got two. What's the chance that another of mine is drawn? It's now 4 out of 38, so we're looking at 4/38.

I'm sure you get the picture.

Now run through the same argument for "your" selection.

Do you get the same figures?

Patterned sequences are less likely to be observed only because there so many fewer than "random" looking series.

A group of people tried to buy every possible sequence in Australia about 20 years ago. They waited until the jackpot was high enough and then just hoped there weren't many other winners.

[AmyStrange]

18. Did you read my whole post...

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If you want to save money, not buying consecutive numbers would help. But yes you are right, consecutive numbers are as likely to win (have the same odds) as any other combo.

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[SwissTony]

9. "to avoid car accidents don't buy a car"

except that if you don't "win" (i.e. have a crash), you have (hopefully) a benefit from having a car - getting to work, picking the kids up, doing the shopping etc. If you don't win on the lottery, you just lose your money.

Not comparable.

[AmyStrange]

17. It was just a joke... sorry if I ruined your day

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GAWD loves you anyway,

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[sharp_stick]

10. Years ago I used math

to convince my Dad that my odds of winning the lottery using 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 & 6 were just as good as his method of using birthdays.

It took a long time but I finally did it.

[SwissTony]

16. Years ago, I read an article in the Royal Dutch Statisical Society's monthly journal

about combinations you should avoid in the Dutch lottery. They included combinations such as 1,2,3,4,5,6. Others were based on geometric shapes e.g triangles. Others were based on birth data from the Dutch Royals (the royals are very popular in Holland).

Why should these combinations be avoided? Because other people choose them!! Not because they are more likely (or unlikely) to be drawn. if you chose a combination that actually comes up, you simply get a much lower payout if lots of people have chosen the same combination than you would if you had chosen a random combination which only a few people had chosen.

So, nothing to do with probability. More about strategic planning.

[AmyStrange]

19. Makes sense n/t

[AmyStrange]

22. that makes sense, except...

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sure you can avoid number combinations that a lot of people would choose (like the birthdates of royalty) and thus win less money, but think about that for a second.

If you don't pick those numbers and they win, then you get nothing which is way lot less than having to share the pot with a whole lot of other people, so I don't really see the point in not choosing numbers that will give you a smaller return because more people will win with you,

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[SwissTony]

25. Let's take a simpler example.

You and I decide to bet on a single toss of a coin. The coin is fair, the coin tosser is fair etc. We can both select heads or tails and we only have one ticket (no betting on both). But we can both select heads or tails at the same time i.e. we can make the same call. The prize money is $100 to be divided between those who correctly called. We have to pay $50 to play the game. We are the only players.

I go first and nominate tails. I do so publicly so you know what I've chosen. What do you choose? You could go for tails and if tails comes up, we get $50 each (i.e. our money back). If heads comes up, we both lose our money.

If you choose heads, and heads comes up you get $100 but if tails comes up you lose your money.

Under both scenarios, you have a 50% chance of losing your money. In the first scenario, you have a 50% chance of breaking even. In the second, you have a 50% chance of making a $50 profit.

You'd be crazy not to choose heads.

It's most certainly true that 1% of a lot is more than 100% of nothing. If you choose a combination based on the royals' birth dates, you have exactly the same chance as you would had you used a "random" combination. But the payout under one event is much smaller than under the other.

[AmyStrange]

26. Yes you have the same chance of winning...

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with the combination of numbers with royal's birth dates as any other combination of numbers

BUT if you don't buy a ticket...

YOU WIN NOTHING

regardless of how little a payout there is...

SO WHY NOT BUY A TICKET with the Royal's Birthdates?

BECAUSE IF YOU CHOSE NOT TO BUY ONE

and it wins

YOU WIN NOTHING?

It doesn't get any simpler than that...

[SwissTony]

28. The point was....

if you're going to buy a ticket, choose a combination that is not frequently chosen so that you maximise your payoff.

[AmyStrange]

30. how is winning nothing maximizing my payoff n/t

[AmyStrange]

27. By the way, why am I not allowed to pick both heads and tails?

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sure I win less if we both choose heads and heads come up, but if I chose both heads and tails, the worse that can happen is I break even.

Under your scenario, the worse that can happen is I win nothing if heads comes up and I don't chose it.

Which is why I would choose both instead of only one, at least I win something

how many different ways can I explain this

so you get it

[SwissTony]

29. Them's the rules of the game.

You don't get to go to a casino and tell them you want to play a variant of blackjack, particularly one that removes the house advantage.

I get it. You don't.

Grab an elementary stats book and look up "Expectation". It's a maths concept, but fairly easy to understand.

[AmyStrange]

31. you are allowed to buy more than one lottery ticket

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and I can certainly pick both heads and tails

and even if i win less because we both pick heads

LESS is still BETTER than NOTHING

[Agschmid]

14. Mac fan?

[edbermac]

21. "I WANT THAT MONEY!!!!!"

[AmyStrange]

23. too much...

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caffeine?

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[PoliticAverse]

32. In related news... Chinese Man Spent $967,000 On Lottery Tickets,

Unfortunately Doesn't Win Jackpot

http://www.businessinsider.com/chinese-man-spends-life-savings-on-lotto-2013-8