Aggressive Mathematics: Gov. Ducey's flat-tax promises don't add up
Republican legislative leadership and Gov. Doug Ducey think that with forecasts of a $1.5 ongoing budget "surplus" the best thing to do is provide a $1.9 billion tax cut that goes overwhelmingly to wealthier households through a "flat" tax and neutralizing the tax impact of Prop 208 on the top 1%.
Note that "surplus" here means projected revenues against a baseline of ongoing formula expenditures that excludes one-time funding areas that are not necessarily really one-time and ignoring any areas not currently adequately funded or formulas no longer being filled (such as for community colleges).
Yes, that's aggressive mathematics—but fear not, it will have such strong dynamic growth covering one-third of the costs that all will work out in the end. The market tells us so—at least that's what economist Jim Rounds calculates.
Comparisons to Kansas that enacted a proportionally smaller income tax reduction geared toward its wealthier residents that led to catastrophic results, we are told, were because in Kansas they were totally drinking the Kool-Aid thinking tax cuts actually pay for themselves, while here we're being conservative.
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