Current Forecasts for PEAK BLOOM!
The National Park Service has issued its first forecast for the season on when the cherry blossoms will reach peak bloom. They predict that it will fall sometime during the period March 31 to April 3.
That’s earlier than the April 4 historical average and significantly earlier than we’ve seen in the past few years.
How Accurate Are These Forecasts?
The NPS horticulturalists are the first to point out that they’re not really confident in their prediction until about 10 days out. There are so many variables that can come into play, especially since the prediction is based on long-range weather forecasts a month or more out.
It’s not at all unusual for the forecasts to be revised as we get closer to the date as the actual weather conditions diverge from the long-range weather forecast they initially relied on.
That said, they’re also very good at it, and in the past couple of years they’ve stuck with their initial forecasts issued in early March and, almost six week later, have been essentially spot on.
http://cherryblossomwatch.com/peak-bloom-forecast/