Data Crunch: A Deeper Look at State Legislative Districts
COLIN CAMPBELL
Across New York State this year, one of the most important election battles will be for control of the State Senate, and new data released today illuminates how competitive many of these races many be.
The left-leaning election-watch site Daily Kos Elections tabulated data from the 2012 presidential race in each state legislative district, providing strong indications of which races will be prioritized as the two parties duke it out for control of the chamber, which is currently governed by a precarious balance of Republicans and a breakaway group of Democrats.
For instance, Republican Senator Lee Zeldin, who is planning on vacating his Long Island seat to run for Congress, is set to leave behind a district that went over 55 percent for President Barack Obama, giving Democrats strong hope for a pickup. However, New York Republicans have a better track record when it comes to local elections than federal ones, leaving party sources confident they’ll hang onto seats like Mr. Zeldin’s.
Though Democrats have stronger opportunities for offense overall, according to the Daily Kos numbers, caveats remain. Democratic turnout typically dips in off-year cycles, as opposed to presidential election years, and the strength of the potential candidates running can vary wildly from district to district.
http://politicker.com/2014/01/data-crunch-a-deeper-look-at-state-legislative-districts/